Early November Warmth: A new trend?

Posted at 8:29 AM on November 17, 2009 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

Twin Cities NWS forecasts a high of 50 in the Twin Cities Saturday. The average high is 36 degrees.

The ranking are in for our unseasonably mild first half of November in the Twin Cities.

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, our average temperature of 45.5 degrees was the 7th mildest start to November on record. The warmth was widespread this month. Several area cities recorded top ten warm first 15 days of November including:

-Fargo: 4th warmest
-St. Cloud, Rochester & Sioux Falls: 5th warmest
-International Falls: 6th warmest
-Duluth: 7th warmest

In addition to one of the warmest such periods on record for early November, it appears a trend may be emerging in the last decade toward warm spells in early November. Four of the top 10 warmest early November periods have occurred in the past 11 years including:

#1) 51.1 degrees in 2001
#4) 45.9 degrees in 1999
#7) 45.5 degrees in 2009
#9) 44.9 degrees in 2005

The average temperature for the first half of November in the Twin Cities is 36.5 degrees.

Thanksgiving Preview: Colder

It appears our blissfully mild weather will linger though the weekend. The upper air pattern shows signs of cahnging as we move onto next week. Right now the GFS model is indicating a fairly cold shot of air by Thanksgiving Day.

NOAA GFS forecast model surface chart for noon Thanksgiving Day indicates cold air pouring southward from Canada.

This could mean highs in the upper 20s or lower 30s by Thanksgiving Day. There are some signs temperatures could moderate a bit by Saturday and Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend.

This pattern change could be a longer term trend for the rest of November as temperatures return to near or colder than average levels by the end of November.

PH

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Comments (2)

Paul, I enjoy your blog and listening to your weather comments on MPR in the morning. Given the projected movement back to more normal, cooler temps, I was just wondering if we're still on track for an El Nino winter, and if so, how strong of an effect will it be? Thanks.

Posted by Joe | November 17, 2009 12:28 PM

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Thanks for the kind words Joe:

No worries. El Nino is still in full bloom in the tropical Pacific. All signs point to a milder than average winter in the Upper Midwest.

PH

Posted by Paul Huttner | November 17, 2009 4:37 PM

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