Updraft: November 6, 2009 Archive

Friday Forecast: Out on a weather limb

Posted at 6:10 AM on November 6, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Twin Cities NWS graphical forecast Thursday at 11pm says 57 for a high on Friday.

Call me crazy. Call me a weather optimist. Best case scenario bias on this one. Maybe I just want a small hint of summer back. I'm out on the proverbial weather limb, and I hope it doesn't get sawed off. I may have to scrape the weather egg off my face Friday afternoon.

I think the forecast models have underestimated (possibly grossly underestimated) the magnitude of the warm air about to spill into the Twin Cities this weekend.

All week long the models have been suggesting high temperatures of about 55 to 57 degrees for Friday. These numbers were based on assuming a low deck of stratus clouds persisting all day Friday. We've had a few clouds overnight, but it's been up around 5,500 feet and there may be enough wind to mix that layer out into drier air and give us more sunshine Friday.

The local forecasts from various media and NWS as of 11pm Thursday night range from 57 to 62 on Friday.

This is probably a great range. But there is also another scenario in which the models have underestimated the warming as they sometimes do in late season, and overestimated the amount of cloud cover in a dry air mass. One result could be more sun and a higher temperature than any of those numbers by Friday afternoon as the thermal ridge moves overhead. The upstream air mass under the thermal ridge in central Nebraska Thursday was well into the 70s, but that was with some help from downslope warming. We won't get that help in Minnesota.

So here's my fun little forecast for Friday's max temp if the "high end" scenario plays out.

Twin Cities max temp for Friday: At least 65 degrees, with 70 very close by in southwest Minnesota, and not out of the question in the southwest metro. Late day surge of mild air wins the day in southern Minnesota.

Let's see how well the models handled Friday with Tom Crann on ATC Friday PM.

Enjoy!

PH

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Saturday's weather should lift your spirits

Posted at 9:47 AM on November 6, 2009 by Mark Seeley

Whatever your plans for the weekend, make sure you spend some of it outdoors on Saturday as Mother Nature delivers one of the nicest days this fall.

Hunting, golfing, having a picnic or cookout, watching football, combining the corn crop, even leaf raking should bring a smile to many faces after such a dreary October. Though temperatures are not likely to set records on Saturday in most areas they will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal.

Daytime temperatures in the 60s F are somewhat rare for November 7th. For the Twin Cities this happens only about once every 8 or 9 years historically though since the new millenium we have seen a trend toward warm temperatures on this date. This will be the 5th time we have reached 60 degrees F or higher since 2000. The record high for November 7th is an old one, 72 degrees F back in 1874.

Plenty of sunshine, light winds, and modest humidity will heighten the pleasure of the day. I suspect it will be the nicest day for football seen so far this fall.

Forecast: November warmth continues

Posted at 4:00 PM on November 6, 2009 by Paul Huttner

CPC 6-10 day outlook favors continued above average temperatures for the Upper Midwest.

Ah...Indian Summer in Minnesota.

The hum of leaf blowers everywhere. Dogs and cats blissfully strolling with lackadaisical owners down leaf lined boulevards. High School and Gopher football played outdoors under favorable skies. Weather folks babbling about temperatures 17 degrees above average. This is how early November was meant to be.

It's nice to see thermometers pushing 72 degrees in Windom and Canby. We hit at least 63 here in the Twin Cities, we'll know after 6pm if we crept as high as 64. The NWS forecast discussion today confirms my thinking that we could have easily hit 65 to nearly 70 if we had not had those pesky cirrus clouds today.

"OUR AFTN TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE BEEN TWO TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER IF CIRRUS SHIELD DIDN`T MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO RISE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER."

It looks like our weather winning streak may continue for most of the month. Looking ahead on the medium range forecast maps, it appears the Upper Midwest will be milder than average this month. The upper air pattern will feature a high amplitude progressive pattern with more ridges than troughs over Minnesota. That should mean stretches of three or four blissfully above average days punctuated by a cold front or two in between.

The smart money is on above average November temperatures in Minnesota.

Even the NOAA CPC 8-14 day outlook advertises above average temperatures for the region.

In the short run we should stay dry again Saturday with a high in the 60s. The NAM model is hinting at more clouds and a slight chance of a shower Sunday with a high in the 50s. Keep in mind our average high is now just 45 degrees.

Enjoy the beautiful weekend!

PH