Updraft: November 4, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Warm front

Posted at 8:33 AM on November 4, 2009 by Paul Huttner

European forecast model shows a very warm bubble of air for November at 5,000 feet surging into the Upper Midwest Friday.

This is going to be an interesting forecast.

A major league warm front is building in the high plains and will be pushing northeast into Minnesota by Friday. The big forecast question? Just how warm will it get?

As usual there are at least two competing model solutions to that question. One model, the NAM is more aggressive in surging the warm air into Minnesota by Friday. The NAM numbers suggest southwest Minnesota could see temperatures surge well into the 60s and even close to 70 degrees Friday afternoon. The 60s could linger into Saturday if you bet on the NAM.

The GFS is a little more conservative. GFS numbers suggest mid to upper 50s for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, both Friday and Saturday. This would still be a good 10 to 15 degrees above average for early November. Our average high in the metro Saturday is 45 degrees.

The air mass poised to move this way is already plenty warm. High temperatures yesterday were well into the 60s to near 70 degrees in the lee of the Rockies.

A wild card with warm fronts any time of year can be cloud cover ahead of the front. If clouds develop Friday as the front pushes through, it may keep temperatures in check a bit. If we see full sun, even the lower November sun angle should be able to boost temps into the low 60s in southwest Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

Either way it's going to warm up around these parts in the next few days. It looks to stay mild and dry through the weekend. So the question really is; will temperatures be 10 or 20 degrees above average?

Now that's a nice forecast problem to have for early November!

Looking further ahead, it appears temperatures could stay mostly above average through November 14th.

Then the models hint at a big windy wet storm system moving in from the southwest. Too early to tell if it would be rain or snow yet, but mid-November is a pretty good time to get a wrapped up "panhandle hook" type storm moving into the Upper Midwest.

GFS forecast model hints at a strong storm approaching on about November 14th.

Stay tuned, and enjoy our Indian Summer as it unfolds this weekend.

PH

Arizona Heat Wave: Hottest November day on record

Posted at 4:16 PM on November 4, 2009 by Paul Huttner

Tucson NWS forecast highs Wednesday show record level temperatures in the 90s.

We know it's hot in the Desert Southwest. It's just never been this hot in November for some in Arizona.

Several Arizona cities set record highs Tuesday, and more records are in danger today. Picacho Peak sits about half way between Tucson and Phoenix along I-10 in the Sonoran Desert. Tuesday afternoon the thermometer soared to 97 degrees. Phoenix hit 96 degrees. That's the hottest all-time November temperature on record for Picacho and ties the all-time hottest November temp in Phoenix.

Records Tuesday include:

Location High/Old Record / Year/ Notes

Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport 96°/ 94°/1931/ Ties all-time warmest November high.

Tucson International Airport 93°/91°/1931/ One degree shy of all-time warmest November high.

Organ Pipe Cactus N.M. 96°/ 92°/1997/ One degree shy of all-time warmest November high.

Picacho Peak 97°/ 91°/2001/ Broke all-time warmest November high (93°: 11/1/2008)

Bisbee-Douglas Airport 85°/ 85°/2001/ Two degrees shy of all-time November high.

So what does this have to do with Minnesota?

Some of this toasty air mass will filter over the Rockies in the coming days and may modify our air mass as warmer southwest winds kick in by Friday. I'm not sayin' we'll see records here which are in the lower 70s. I'm just sayin' that the models can sometimes underestimate the magnitude of warming when desert air masses get sucked into weather systems in the Upper Midwest.

I think we're a lock for at least 60 degrees in the metro Friday or Saturday. If enough warm air surges north, we could see 70s in southern Minnesota and even a stray 80 in South Dakota. Let's hope so!

PH