Updraft: November 2, 2009 Archive

Twin Cities: Wild temperature swings this fall

Posted at 8:22 AM on November 2, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

October temperature departure shows temperatures 4 to 8 degrees below average in Minnesota.

Congratulations! You've just experienced one of the wildest temperature swings in Twin Cities' history this fall.

After a warm and dry September, we've just concluded one of the coolest and wettest Octobers on record in Minnesota.

When you add up all the highs and lows, our monthly average temperature plunged 23.3 degrees between September and October in the Twin Cities. It was a toasty 65.5 degrees in September. October? 43.2 degrees soaking wet. Only 2002 and 1925 showed bigger temperature swings from September to October in the metro.

This was the 4th coolest October on record for the Twin Cities.

Wet Too:

This was one of the top 10 wettest Octobers on record for most of Minnesota. Anywhere from 4" to as much as 8" of precipitation fell last month. Here's where the drought busting records fell for area cities.

5th wettest October on record in the Twin Cities. (5.57")
3rd wettest for St. Cloud. (6.02")
2nd wettest for Rochester. (7.57")
Brainerd set a record with measurable precipitation on 23 of 31 days.

We are still running nearly 4 inches below average for the year in the metro.

Indian Summer Ahead?

Our weather roller coaster weather ride looks as if it may continue into November. Sunday's high of 58 in the Twin Cities was 8 degrees above average.

Forecast models insist a strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is building in for the upcoming weekend. Look for plenty of sunshine Thursday through Sunday. Highs could push 60 by this weekend. Temperatures should be anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above average.

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NOAA CPC 6-10 day outlook favors warmer than average temps into next week for much of the nation.

It also looks like the milder than average pattern may hold through the first two weeks in November. Right now, no big cold fronts or snow storms are in sight on the weather maps.

We should enjoy a nice Indian Summer this fall!

PH

(1 Comments)

October the snowiest in history for some Minnesotans

Posted at 10:32 AM on November 2, 2009 by Mark Seeley

Amidst the weather narratives about how cold and wet this past month was, it may have escaped your attention that it was also quite snowy for some. Rochester reported the snowiest October in their climate history with 7.9 inches. But they are not the only ones. Other locations in Minnesota that reported their snowiest October included:

Waskish with 13 inches
Brimson with 7.8 inches
Grand Meadow and Rothsay with 6.0 inches
Theilman and Zumbrota with 5.5 inches
Austin with 5.0 inches

In addition Wadena reported 6.3 inches and Ottertail 8.0 inches, but those values were not records. Some observers reported snowfall on 5 or 6 days during the month, which is an abnormally high frequency for October historically.

Looks like the first half of November will bring warm, sunny, and dry conditions to the state according to NOAA-CPC. This will be very beneficial for farmers and for those of us who still have many fall chores to finish.

Forecast: Indian Summer

Posted at 2:44 PM on November 2, 2009 by Paul Huttner

We've earned this.

After a wet and chilly October and cool blustery start to this week, the forecast is looking up for this weekend. It looks like Indian Summer may pay a visit to Minnesota.

The AMS glossary defines Indian Summer this way: A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

The weather maps this weekend look to fit the bill.

Indian Summer occurs in the Midwest when we get a large slow moving ridge of high pressure overhead in the upper atmosphere. As you can see from the 500 millibar (18,000 feet) chart below, significant ridging is forecast by Friday.

Upper air forecast 6pm Friday evening Minnesota time.

At the surface, cool high pressure will begin to slide east of Minnesota Thursday. This opens the door to southwest winds which will begin to pump warm air northward into the region.

Surface forecast 7pm Friday shows high pressure over the eastern states and a milder southerly flow in the Upper Midwest.

The southerly wind flow may persist right through Monday. That will allow plenty of time to bring milder air north. Combined with daytime sunshine, that should help boost afternoon temperatures into at least the upper 50s and low 60s in southern Minnesota Friday into the weekend. I would not be shocked to see a 70 degree reading close to the southern Minnesota border.

It is generally accepted that at least one killing frost and a period of cool weather has occurred before we can claim Indian Summer. We definitely meet those criteria this year.

The term Indian Summer has some history and regional differences attached. Again, from the Glossary of the AMS:

"In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer." It does not occur every year, and in some years there may be two or three Indian summers. The term is most often heard in the northeastern United States, but its usage extends throughout English- speaking countries. It dates back at least to 1778, but its origin is not certain; the most probable suggestions relate it to the way that the American Indians availed themselves of this extra opportunity to increase their winter stores. The comparable period in Europe is termed the Old Wives' summer, and, poetically, may be referred to as halcyon days. In England, dependent upon dates of occurrence, such a period may be called St. Martin's summer, St. Luke's summer, and formerly All-hallown summer."

It looks like we could be pushing 60 in the metro by Saturday. Our average high for Saturday in the Twin Cities is 45 degrees. That would put us a whole 15 degrees above average.

Thursday through Sunday will be a great opportunity to get those leaves up and get other fall chores put to bed. Oh yes, and don't forget to take a long stroll and bask in the sunny and milder Inidan Summer sunshine!

PH