Updraft: October 21, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Metro rain, Iron Range snow

Posted at 8:25 AM on October 21, 2009 by Paul Huttner

NOAA precipitation forecast cranking out a wet inch plus over of the central U.S.

This is one way to erase a drought.

Another in a series of wet fall weather systems is lighting up radars and soaking Minnesota today. Expect rain most of today into tonight in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The rain could pick up in intensity at times, and the forecast models are cranking out between a half inch and an inch of moisture for the Twin Cities.

The rain will change to snow in northern Minnesota today. By afternoon snow will be flying in Ely and the Iron Range cities of Hibbing and Virginia. It looks like 3 to 5 inches could fall in the far north by midnight. A wet inch or two could fall further south toward Brainerd and St. Cloud. Check the surface reports and hourly observations today to as the rain transitions to snow up north.

Surface analysis shows rain increasing this morning. Expect rainfall intensity to increase as bands from Iowa move northeast today.

Latest Twin Cities radar loop
Twin Cities Nexrad storm total rainfall estimates
Duluth radar with rain/snow line

Our soggy weather maker moves mercifully east on Thursday. This set the stage for sunshine Thursday. Bright sun may linger Friday and Saturday for much of Minnesota before another wet weather system slides in for Sunday. Saturday looks like the best day for one more fall leaf peeping excursion, or to take a crack at power raking some leafs up from you lawn.

The overall jet stream pattern looks more like November this month than October. Forecast models are hinting this morning at the possibility of a significant snowfall by next Wednesday. One thing to keep in mind is that the models are all over the place as they adjust to the seasonal transition this time of year.

Stay dry today, enjoy the sun tomorrow and stay tuned for the chance of snowfall next week!

PH

Wet October setting records

Posted at 4:25 PM on October 21, 2009 by Paul Huttner

Our unusually wet October weather pattern is starting to set some records.

We've had rain or snow 13 of 21 days so far in October.

Let's start with snow. This is already the snowiest October in 18 years. We've recorded 2.8" of snow at Twin Cities Airport this month. This is already the 7th snowiest October on record. We may add to that snowfall total before the month is done.

The snowiest October was in 1991 during the onset of the Halloween Mega-Storm. The last time we saw this much snow this early in October was in 1977.

Now the rain.

After another .50" of rain so far today the Twin Cities has recorded 4.3" of precipitation this month as of about 4pm Tuesday. That's more than twice the monthly average of 2.11 inches. Many locations in Minnesota have recorded over 5" of rainfall this month.

In fact, the Twin Cities are now approaching the top 10 wettest Octobers on record. If we get roughly another .6" of rain, that will put us in the top 10 wettest Octobers. Right now the number 10 spot is held by October 1904 at 4.94" of precipitation.

Even if it's a bit dreary, our wet October weather pattern is a blessing after over a year of drought. The added rainfall is recharging soils, lakes and rivers.

October temperatures are also way below average. After a very warm September (+5.5 degrees) we are running 8.4 degrees below average for October. So in a month, we've gone from the 11th warmest September or record to what may be one of the top 10 coldest Octobers on record.

There's certainly plenty for meteorologists to talk about in Minnesota these days!

PH