Updraft: October 14, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Slop storm ahead

Posted at 8:16 AM on October 14, 2009 by Paul Huttner

NOAA SREF model ensemble cranks out a couple of inches of wet snow north of the metro Thursday.

Get ready for more wet weather.

Another in our series of wet October weather systems is headed this way. The big forecast question this time is; liquid or ice?

It looks like the Twin Cities will be right on the edge of rain and snow for the next 48 hours or so. Precipitation should spread over the area by late tonight. Sloppy slushy wet snow will be the favored precip type for much of North Dakota and the northern half of Minnesota. In southern Minnesota it looks like we'll change between rain and snow at times, favoring snow at night and rain during the day.

As the system moves through on Thursday, we may see enough colder air filter in to change things over to all snow by Thursday night.

Most areas will see between 1 and 3 inches north of the metro. I expect only minor slushy accumulations here in the metro by Friday morning. The overnight modles are cranking out .53" of precip for the metro by Friday morning. Most of that may fall as rain here.

A second wave may bring another shot of snow the area Friday.

Want some good weather news?

The weekend still looks promising. Look for the sun to break out Saturday with a high near 50. Sunday looks milder with a drying breeze and a high pushing 60 by late afternoon. That should give you a chance to get out and pick up a few of those soggy leaves on your lawn.

PH

Rain and snow now; fall returns this weekend

Posted at 4:47 PM on October 14, 2009 by Paul Huttner

NOAA precipitation forecast cranks out half an inch for much of Minnesota.

There's a light at the end of the weather tunnel, and it's not an oncoming train.

Our unseasonably wet and cool October weather pattern is about to change in 72 hours. We'll have to endure two more gray damp days Thursday and Friday, and then the jet stream will lift north and bring back fall to Minnesota this weekend.

It looks as if our incoming weather system will linger with rain and snow through Friday. The best chance for a slushy 1 to 3 inches will be in North Dakota and northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Radars are lighting up around the region tonight.

NOAA SREF model ensemble favors accumulating snow north of the metro.

I expect periods of rain for the metro, mixed with and changing to snow at times. Temperatures should stay just warm enough in the lowest 5,000 feet for mostly rain. When snow does occur, air and ground temperatures should prevent much more than an inch of slushy accumulation on grassy areas. Look for highs in the 40s through Friday.

It is interesting to note that some of the moisture from this system is remnant moisture from what once was Typhoon Melor. The storm struck Japan last week, crossed the Pacific and is filtering into Minnesota tonight.

Now for the good news!

The jet will lift north as a ridge of high pressure builds in this weekend. Look for much plenty of sunshine and milder temperatures, we should reach 50 Saturday and push 60 by Sunday afternoon. That's at least 20 degrees warmer than we were on Monday.

CPC 8-14 day temp outlook favors near average temperatures.

It appears the overall weather pattern wil stay more fall like through much of next week. In fact, the forecast models are hinting at a prolonged period of milder, more typical fall weather with highs in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s.

It may not be warm enough for Indian Summer, but it's a start.

Hang in there another 72 hours!

PH