Updraft: October 8, 2009 Archive

Forecast: First freeze and flakes for Twin Cities

Posted at 8:16 AM on October 8, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Here it comes.

The first freezing temperature for the metro occurs on average on October 6th. This year looks to be very close to average.

The coldest air of the season is filtering into Minnesota over the next 4 days. It appears temperatures will dip below freezing in the metro both Saturday and Sunday mornings, and highs will not climb out of the low 40s this weekend.

So far this fall the coldest temperature at Twin Cities Airport has been 39 degrees on September 30th and October 5th.

After a sunny but chilly Friday, Saturday still looks likely to produce the first snow flakes of the season in the metro and much of Minnesota. A north-south oriented band of snow should glide through the state Saturday morning. There could be some light accumulations especially north of the metro, and some interesting visuals at the Gopher football game.

In a quirky atmospheric twist of fate, it will likely be warmer in Fairbanks, Alaska this weekend than it will in the Twin Cities. We'll struggle to reach the low 40s this weekend while Fairbanks should reach the mid-50s with a shot at 60. Due to spacing in large scale atmospheric waves patterns, it's usually warm in Alaska when it's cold in Minnesota, and visa-versa.

The Twin Cities enjoyed a balmy 64 degree high on Wednesday. It was the warmest day so far in October and the warmest all the way back to September 27th.

Grab the parka this weekend and hang in there.

PH

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Rain Delays Fall Harvest

Posted at 4:28 PM on October 8, 2009 by Paul Huttner

According to the latest Minnesota Crop Report, our recent heavy rains have delayed the fall harvest in many Minnesota locations. Minnesota's soybean and corn harvest is well behind the 5 year average.

So far only 19% of Minnesota soybean crop has been harvested. That's well behind the 5 year average of 41% by this date. Last year was right on average with 41% of soybeans already in the bin by this time.

I spoke with U of M Professor and climate specialist Dr. Mark Seeley Thursday afternoon. Mark does not think the delay and coming freeze will affect overall yields much. Mark said his conversations with Minnesota farmers this week tell him that the crop is mostly made, and a freeze at this point should only reduce yields on the order of 1% to 3%. Farmers seem more concerned about any major wind event that could blow down crops in the field before they have a chance to get in and complete the harvest. So far there are no major wind events in sight.

First metro freeze tonight or tomorrow night:

Twin Cities NWS forecast minimum temperatures for Friday morning show freezing temps nipping at the west metro.

Will we have freezing temps in the metro overnight? That's the forecast challenge.

It appears temps at or below 32 degrees are locks for most of Minnesota west of the Twin Cities. Mostly clear skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to plummet this evening.

The big variable tonight is the presence of a cloud deck just north of the metro.

If the clouds hang in overnight, some areas may hover just above freezing. If it erodes, temperatures should hit the freezing mark, even in the metro.

The Twin Cities NWS is keeping the metro just above freezing for now. My bet is that the clouds may erode enough to allow temperatures to drop to 32 in many metro locations by morning. Look for frosty rooftops, lawns and fields by Friday morning.

PH