Updraft: October 1, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Wind & Rain

Posted at 8:24 AM on October 1, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

Twin Cities NWS doppler radar showing lead wave of rain as it moved into the Twin Cities this morning. Get current doppler loop here.

Right on schedule.

Synopsis:

A potent October storm system is winding up and driving into Minnesota today. Expect bouts of wind-driven rain and a clap or two of thunder as we move through the day. The rain may be heavy at times. A strong easterly wind will send sheets of sideways rain into the area today.

The upper low driving this storm will track east through Iowa over the next 24-36 hours. It will tap Gulf moisture to the south and wrap it around the north side into Minnesota. The system has plenty of cold air to work with, so it will be an efficient rain producer. The slow movement will mean a long duration or rainfall which will push rain totals higher.

Duration:

The rain should come in waves. Since the system is moving slowly through Iowa, it will keep rainfall in the area through Friday, and possibly some showers into the first half of Saturday. Looks like football fans will be tested at high school games Friday night and at the Gopher game vs. Wisconsin Saturday at The Bank.

Rainfall:

Upper level dynamics with the storm will increase later today and tonight. This may produce clusters of thundershowers containing locally heavy bursts of rain. Most of the models are cranking out 1" to 2" of rainfall in southern Minnesota, including the metro. Some local areas may see over 2" of rain by the time the system winds down Saturday.

Wind & Temperatures:

This will be a wind-driven chilly rainfall. Look for temperatures to hover around 50 degrees for much of the event. Easterly winds will drive the rain sideways at times, blowing between 15 and 25 mph with a few higher gusts.

Big Picture:

This should be the heaviest rainfall in about 6 weeks for most areas. We had 1.46" of rain on August 19th at Twin Cities Airport.

This is a much needed and beneficial rainfall for the area. We are over 2" below average for rainfall in the Twin Cities since September 1st. Hopefully farmers have been able to make good harvest progress the past two days.

The overall weather pattern looks cool and fairly wet the next 7 to 10 days. There are some indications that we could warm up a bit in about 10-14 days.

Tracking the storm:

Here are a few resources to track the system.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Storm total rainfall
-Surface winds and temperatures
-Current hourly weather reports
-NOAA model rainfall forecast
-Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion

Stay dry and warm!

PH

(1 Comments)

Friday Forecast: More of the same

Posted at 10:01 PM on October 1, 2009 by Paul Huttner

An additinal inch or more of rainfall is possible through Friday.

Update for Friday AM:

A band of rain will continue to spiral around low pressure tracking through southeast Minnesota overnight. As the low moves into Wisconsin Friday, expect more occasional bouts of rain showers throughout the day.

Several locations have already picked up anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of rain through Thursday night.

Update Thursday 4pm:

Timing is everything.

It's a very slow rush hour in the metro. Our potent rain and wind storm is dealing another band of moderate to heavy rain for the metro this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms embedded within the rain bands are producing locally heavy downpours. Expect some localised ponding of water in low spots through this evening.

The rain is staring to add up with this system. Areas west of the metro including Hutchinson, Litchfield, Fairfax and Hector have already received 2" to 3" rainfall according to doppler radar storm total estimates. Flood advisories have been posted and flash flood warnings are possible tonight.

Doppler storm total rainfall shows areas of 2" to 3"+ rains west of the metro.

There are always two or more viepoints on weather days like today. One is this is a blessing as a much needed rainfall event. Another viewpoint is a rush hour headache for commuters Of course, it could be worse. It could be snowing.

Stay tunes to KNOW 91.1 for changing conditions and updates tonight.

PH