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Forecast Update: Nicer weekend ahead?

Posted at 3:02 PM on September 8, 2009 by Paul Huttner

5 day pcp.jpg
NOAA 5-day rainfall forecast shows over an inch of rain for much of Minnesota. This may change for the drier.

A cut-off low is a weatherman's woe.

I'm not sure who coined that phrase, but it's a good one. And this time the weatherman's forecast woe may come with a bonus; a nicer than expected weekend for Minnesota. Summer may just hang on another week.

The forecast models are having a duzy of a time trying to resolve a cut-off low pressure system in the northern U.S. this weekend. As is typical, the first solution was to just keep it moving along from west to east. This is a typical trend for numerical forecast models that like to keep weather systems moving along with the upper level flow. That would bring the low over Minnesota, and bring showery weather in the 60s and low 70s this weekend.

Now the models are building in an upper level ridge over Minnesota this weekend, and holding the cut-off back in the northern Rockies. If that happens, we may see more sun and temperatures near 80 again this weekend.

This latest solution makes more sense this early in September. Cold season cut-offs become more common in October and as we move through fall.

In the meantime, an upper wave is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Look for our best chance of rain in the metro on Wednesday as the system moves through. It appears the heaviest rain will be in northern Minnesota, where over an inch could fall with this system.

Stay tuned to the saga of the cut-off low drama this week. The weekend forecast may change yet again.

PH

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