Updraft: August 5, 2009 Archive

Hurricane season 2009: Quiet forecast

Posted at 8:49 AM on August 5, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

National Hurricane Center analysis shows a lack of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.

Things are pleasantly quiet in the Atlantic Ocean these days.

There has not been a named storm in the Atlantic tropical cyclone season so far in 2009. That marks the latest start to the season since 1992. In that year, Tropical Storm Andrew formed on August 16th, the latest date for a named storm. Last year Tropical Storm Arthur was churning by the last days of May.

A new forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season this week from the team at Colorado State University again lowers the numbers of storms expected this year. Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phillip Klotzbach are now predicting 10 named Atlantic storms. That's down from 14 named storms in the initial forecast issued last December. The CSU team is predicting 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year with just 2 becoming major hurricanes.

The CSU forecast cites the rapid development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean as the primary reason for reducing the forecast numbers. Stronger westerly winds aloft in El Nino years create unfavorable wind shear for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.

Gray and Klotzbach also warn that even though this may be a "down" year for hurricanes, we remain in an active multi-decadal hurricane phase that will last another 10 to 15 years.

British forecast firm Tropical Risk Inc. has a different take on the coming Atlantic hurricane season. They cite warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic as the reason they are increasing their forecast numbers. TRI's updated forecast calls for 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and about 3 major hurricanes.

These forecasts have shown some skill over the past few years. There have also been some big misses. In 2005, nobody came close to predicting the record 28 named storms that churned in the Atlantic and battered the U.S. coastline.

Even though 2009 is off to a quiet start, things can still get busy in a hurry. Hurricane activity peaks around September 10th.

Even one strong hurricane making landfall in the U.S. can leave a lasting impression.

PH

Comment on this post

July 2009: Coolest ever in Midwest

Posted at 3:05 PM on August 5, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

The hits just keep on comin' from our chilly July.

When they added up all the numbers for the nine-state Midwest region it was the coolest July on record.

It was the coldest July on record for Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa; the second coldest on record for Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio, and Wisconsin; the third coldest in Minnesota; and the fourth coldest on record for Missouri. You get the picture. Records for the region date back 114 years.

Check out some of these highlights (lowlites?) from the Midwest Climate Center's report.

-Louisville, KY averages 12 days of 90 degree temperatures in July, they recorded none. St. Louis, MO normally experiences 16 days with temperatures 90 degrees or above, and recorded only four in July.

-International Falls, MN did not reach 80 degrees, and experienced its coldest July on record with an average temperature of 58.8 degrees. The old was record of 59.4 degrees set in 1992.

Other locations in the Midwest that had a record cold July include:

Madison, WI - average temperature of 65.7 degrees, old record 66.7 degrees in 1891
Grand Rapids, MI - average temperature 67.1 degrees, old record 67.2 degrees in 1992
Cedar Rapids, IA - average temperature 66.2 degrees, old record 69.9 degrees in 2004
Rockford, IL - average temperature 67.0 degrees, old record 69.0 degrees in 1915
South Bend, IN - average temperature 68.3 degrees, old record 68.5 degrees in 1996
Cincinnati, OH - average temperature 70.1 degrees, old record 70.7 degrees in 1947
Frankfort, KY - average temperature 71.5 degrees, old record 75.2 degrees in 1947

As reported here earlier, it wasn't cold everywhere in the USA. Austin and San Antonio, Texas had their warmest month ever. And Tucson, Arizona had the 3rd warmest July on record.

Weekend heat backing off?

The forecast models advertised a substantial pattern change and a big warming trend this weekend. Today's model runs are backing off the heat this weekend and next week. This would be classic for the pattern this summer. As we like to say in the weather business; "the models giveth and the models taketh away."

Stay tuned.

PH

Comment on this post