Updraft: July 28, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Soaking rain?

Posted at 8:27 AM on July 28, 2009 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

NOAA rainfall forecast indicates potential for a decent shot of rain by Thursday morning.

This might fall into the "I'll believe it when I see it" category. Or perhaps I'm from Missouri on this one. "Show me."

The most promising looking rain system in weeks appears headed for much of drought stricken southern Minnesota Wednesday night and Thursday. If the forecast models are right on this one, many areas could see a good soaking rainfall by lunchtime Thursday.

A slow moving wave will spin around our cool low pressure trough late Wednesday into Thursday. The system appears to have enough upper level support and moisture to spread rain into western Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and into the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota by Wednesday night.

This system looks different from typical summertime convective systems. There may be a larger area of stratiform rain, which could produce a more widespread beneficial soaking rain for the southern half of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

If things go as the forecast models predict today, there could be widespread half inch to one inch rainfall amounts in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin by noon Thursday.

There's an old saying in weather; "Don't forecast rain in a drought." There's another old saying, "it takes a flood to end a drought." Let's hope reality is somewhere in between this week.

PH

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Crop report: Pretty good for a drought

Posted at 11:42 AM on July 28, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Minnesota's crop report today is mostly good news. It's also a bit surprising in a drought year for much of the state.

Seventy-five percent of Minnesota's corn crop is in good or excellent condition. Sixty-nine percent of soybeans are also rated good to excellent. Some crop development is behind the 5-year average, but overall things are looking pretty good in a drought year.

There are two main reasons the crop report is looking better than what many might expect in a drought. First, rains last fall recharged deep soil moisture in many areas. Secondly, not all of Minnesota is in drought. There has been ample rain in southern Minnesota and even too much rain at times in parts of the northwest. Both areas are big crop producing regions in Minnesota.

The areas of moderate to severe drought in central and southern Minnesota could really use some good rain this week. Let's hope the next weather system scheduled for Thursday can deliver.

PH

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Forecast: Rain chances looking better

Posted at 4:54 PM on July 28, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

We're on track.

I'm watching a hopeful set of forecast models hinting at a decent soaking rain tomorrow night into Thursday. The models look consistent and promising, but when you're in a drought the meteorologist is always asking..."Okay what can go wrong here?"

So far not much. If anything the tendency with these systems that spin in from the northwest is to track them farther south into Iowa. That's been the trend over the past several months. So far this one looks to be taking dead aim at the drought stricken southern half of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. The Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion agrees, and has inserted the "likely" word into the forecast with a 60% to 70% chance of rain attached.

As I said to Tom Crann a few minutes ago, this looks like the best chance for a decent widespread soaking rain all summer. Farmers with corn in the field from Redwood Falls east to the Twin Cities will be hoping the forecast models are right. This would be a good time for a soaker.

The forecast models are cranking out a wide area of between half an inch and an inch of rain. I'll keep an eye on this system as it slides our way Wednesday night. Until then, enjoy our cool breezy and rather pleasant September like weather.

PH

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