Updraft: July 27, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Scattered storms

Posted at 8:07 AM on July 27, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk for severe storms today.

Call it a watched weather pot.

Ingredients are coming together today around eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin for a few scattered severe thunderstorms. Here are some of the weather parameters that are lining up today.

-A cool front drapes from International Falls to near Sioux Falls this morning. The front will be near a Duluth to Twin Cities line by this afternoon.

-Moisture ahead of the front will support storms. Dew points are in the 60s ahead of the front.

-The heat of the day should push temperatures well into the 80s.

-A weak upper wave will slide over the area later today. This will help trigger storms.

Put it all together and you have an unstable atmosphere this afternoon. Storms that do form will move southeast today. Storms may contain hail and high winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

The good news is some of these storms will feature heavy downpours. Some areas could pick up some much needed rainfall. I'm hoping the weather lab garden is one of those areas.

Keep an eye to the west and northwest later today.

PH

Here are some tools to track storms today:

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Storm prediction center
-Twin Cities NWS for watches and warnings

Comment on this post

2009: More record warmth than cold

Posted at 11:18 AM on July 27, 2009 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

This is what happens when you let politics get in the way of science.

Jessie Ferrell writes a blog about the number of cool temperature records tied or broken in July. Drudge picks it up and gives it a headline that seems to indicate evidence against global climate change.

Problem is, there are actually about 1,800 more record highs than record low temperature records tied or broken so far this year. Ooops.

Of course any number of records in one month, one summer or even one year is not evidence of climate change. That's called weather.

It always pays to stick to the science of climate change, rather than to listen to some statistically misleading, politically driven hype.

Comment on this post

Texas Heat: Hottest 30 days ever?

Posted at 3:48 PM on July 27, 2009 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

Another day of 100 degree heat for south Texas. Temperatures in Austin have hit or exceeded 100 degrees 24 of 27 days in July.

Newsflash: It's hot in Texas in July.

Okay, no big surprise here, but as the old weather joke goes..."How hot is it?"

This may be the hottest 30 days ever in parts of Texas. Records for the hottest month ever may tumble this week in Austin, San Antonio and Del Rio Texas. The average temperature in these cities has been close to 90 degrees in July. That's not the average high temperature, that's the daily mean temperature. The daily mean is arrived at by adding the daily minimum and maximum temperatures and dividing by two.

The Texas heat this month has been the other side of the weather story that has brought cooler than average weather to Minnesota and the eastern United States. Jet stream patterns usually make it cool in one place and hot somewhere else.

So is this evidence of climate change or global warming? No. Just like the previous post about the cool northeast summer, the hottest month ever in Texas is not proof of climate change. It's weather, not climate. When you look at the longer term picture over years and decades, the record heat may fit into an overall pattern, but one month does not a climate change make.

The forecast calls for more 100 degree heat in Texas this week. Let's see if parts of Texas finish July as the hottest month ever on record. It will be interesting to see if the climate change naysayers pick up that story as a headline.

PH

Comment on this post