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Forecast game: Father's Day heat wave?

Posted at 3:25 PM on June 8, 2009 by Paul Huttner (22 Comments)

GFS 500.jpg
NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model hints at a strong Bemuda High in the eastern United States just after Father's Day. This kind of pattern can bring heat waves to the Upper Midwest.

This may fall under the category of wishful thinking.

There's a little game I like to play with the medium range forecast models. I try to identify major pattern changes two weeks in advance. Now, any forecaster worth his or her salt will tell you, this is a dangerous and sometimes foolish game for a weather forecaster.

So let's not call this a forecast really, or even an outlook. Let's just have some fun and see how well the GFS and other models can do in the next two weeks.

Medium range (6-14 day) forecast models can be quite useful in identifying big broad forecast trends such as a major warm up or cool down. They are much less effective, often useless, at forecasting day to day precipitation after about 5-7 days.

Weather forecast models have improved considerably over the past 20 years. During that time forecast accuracy has improved about 1.5 days. That means in general today's 5 day forecast is about as accurate as the 3.5 day forecast was 20 years ago.

The image above is today's 500 millibar (18,000 feet) forecast for 7pm Monday June 22nd. (00UTC June 23rd=7pm June 22nd in Minnesota) That's two weeks from today. The big oblong solid line with the number "588" attached indicates a ridge of high pressure stretching from near Bermuda in the Atlantic Ocean all the way back toward Minnesota. This is called the Bermuda High. The pattern is common in summer and is something we would look for to bring summer heat and humidity to much of the United States.

If this map is close to correct (verifies) two weeks out, we would expect 90's and perhaps even 100 degree readings in parts of the Upper Midwest. It would also likely bring humidity with dew points in the 60's and 70's.

So here's the game. Do you think the computer model will?

A: Verify, bringing heat and humidity starting on about Father's Day?
B: Not verify, and temperatures will be much cooler.

Also, what do you think the high temperature will be at Twin Cities Airport on Monday June 22nd? Venture a guess, and I'll send a nifty weather prize to the winner. In case of a tie, the first one to pick the correct high on June 22nd is the winner. If the response is strong enough, I will find a way to come up with addditional prizes for 2nd and 3rd place.

I will post the updated model forecast for June 22nd periodically during the next two weeks.

The average high for June 22nd is 81 degrees. The record is 98 degrees set in 1911.

Here's my guess, and it is just a guess two weeks in advance.

Huttner:
A: The pattern verifies. High temp at MSP June 22nd 95 degrees.

Good luck!

Official contest rules below:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/
your_voice/contests/weather_trivia/blog1_rules.shtml

Comments (22)

A: The ECMWF is indicating the same general pattern, but it only goes out to the 18th. GFS seems to have, surprisingly, good run-to-run consistency showing the ridge building into central CONUS. So, I will say high temp at MSP June 22nd will be 91. I'll go ahead and also say ORD will have a high of 97, and down here in SE IL, a muggy high of 95.

Posted by spencerp | June 8, 2009 4:40 PM

88 = Hi temp at MSP on June 22nd

Posted by Toby | June 8, 2009 4:56 PM

Gee I hope we don't get temps that hot!!!

Posted by Cathy A. White | June 8, 2009 6:54 PM

I vote 92 for hi temp on June 22

Posted by Chris Ruser | June 9, 2009 7:24 AM

High of 86 on June 22nd.

Posted by Jim Carlen | June 9, 2009 7:51 AM

Perhaps your expertise can also predict a general warming or cooling trend in addition to June 23. My boss told me to find and ask specifically you for any June trends in weather in temp. or precip. so that we can plan our planting for the month.

Posted by Tamara | June 9, 2009 8:41 AM

Hi Tamara:

Email me with specific weather types you are looking for and I will let you know what I can see.

Posted by Paul Huttner | June 9, 2009 8:53 AM

The last 2 GFS model runs are very interesting.

Last evenings run scrapped the idea of a big warm up Father's Day Weekend. But the overnight run brought back the hot high pressure dome with a vengeance. It actually builds the ridge axis WEST of Minnesota which would make us hot and put the hottest temps in the Dakotas.

Stay tuned!

Posted by Paul Huttner | June 9, 2009 8:57 AM

I'm guessing 87 for a high, and that's still to dang hot. I love the 70's.

Posted by Mary Myers | June 9, 2009 9:24 AM

My guess A. & June 22 will be 93 degrees.

Thank you for this very interesting and fun weather
prediction.

Posted by Bobbie Graham | June 9, 2009 10:18 AM

I think 89 could be the high on 6/22.
Linda

Posted by Linda | June 9, 2009 1:04 PM

Known for my lack of confidence i long range models I'm aiming low and offering a wild guess of 81. If in doubt go toward the norm. Fun stuff Mr. Huttner!

Posted by Craig | June 9, 2009 1:17 PM

Ah yes....a "climatology" forecast.

Always a safe bet. Except for the past 3 days of record coolness in the metro with temps in the 50's for 3 consecutive days in June the first time in 58 years! Averages are made up of extremes, and in Minnesota these can be about as useful as a dart board.

The latest model run keeps the theme of a building heat dome, but shifts the timing to peak on Wednesday the 24th. Ridge axis right over Minnesota.

Posted by Paul Huttner | June 9, 2009 1:39 PM

I am going with 93 -- and I could not be happier. I love hot weather.

Posted by Susan | June 9, 2009 2:24 PM

We've been breaking records at both ends this spring--I'll venture to say we meet the record at 98 degrees!

Posted by Michelle E. | June 9, 2009 4:12 PM

What I want to know is if it verifies and is 95 on June 22, then does that mean it will be low 80's and sunny but not humid with a slight breeze and maybe some nice picturesque fluffy clouds on June 20th, my wedding day?

If so, I bet the opposite (it doesn't verify) because it always seems to rain when we plan to camp, so if I bet it doesn't verify, then it will!

Beautiful June 20th and I don't care what else!

Posted by Kathie | June 9, 2009 5:14 PM

I'm guessing a high of 94 degrees and a dew point of 66. A hot and muggy day!

Posted by Jacob | June 9, 2009 8:31 PM

A little houskeeping here.

-The prize for the best forecast on Monday June 22nd is a nifty atomic clock with wireless outdoor temperature from La Crosse Technology.

-To be fair and keep this a longer range "prediction" please place your forecast temp by 6pm CDT Monday June 15th.

-The latest upper air pattern shows a high pressure ridge over the Midwest Friday June 19th, with a little trough coming trough toward Monday the 22nd before a ridge rebounds into the area later that week. That might mean heat around the 22nd, but a little cooler on that day if that pattern verifies.

Craig, are you looking good perhaps??

It is typical (and fun) to see such gyrations in the medium-range forecast models that far out.

Posted by Paul Huttner | June 10, 2009 8:36 AM

I am going to guess a hi temp of 78 degrees and cloudy.

Posted by Rick Bahe | June 10, 2009 9:12 AM

I love weather prediction games! I'm in for a high of 90 on the nose. I hope, along with Kathie, for a dry, beautiful June 20. My sister is running Grandma's Marathon that AM so I wish for (dare I predict) a cool, cloudy morning and then a nice sunny warmup for Kathie's wedding.

Posted by Jen | June 10, 2009 10:23 AM

Thanks, Jen. I appreciate your well wishes. Because of my track record, I'm going to "predict" in a way that may well get us what we want.

I'll predict (going with my camping theory) that it will be hot and muggy. Down right unbearably muggy with thurnderstorms which unlike Miami do not cool us down but like Arkansas simply mock you with the steam rising from the asphalt and roofs. It will be 95 and unbearable.

Posted by kathie | June 12, 2009 8:03 PM

Tom already called 95! I'll change to 96.

Posted by kathie | June 12, 2009 8:07 PM

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