Updraft: June 15, 2009 Archive

Forecast: Pattern change ahead

Posted at 8:12 AM on June 15, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Call it a forecast for the wetter and for the better.

The jet stream is moving closer to Minnesota this week. A series of upper air disturbances will ride along the jet stream this week bringing chances for much needed rainfall to the region.

The first wave moves through tonight into Tuesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move from the eastern Dakotas today into western Minnesota by noon and spread into the metro sometime after midnight or toward dawn Tuesday. It appears this morning that the best chance for rain in the Twin Cities may come Tuesday morning.

Right now the Tuesday storms do not look severe, but there may be a stray severe storm or two in Minnesota later this week.

The third week in June marks the start of some important climatological and astronomical changes.

-Our average high in the metro hits 80 degrees this week. The average high will stay at or above 80 through August 20th.

-The next two weeks feature the longest daylight of the year. In the Twin Cities, daylight is at about 15 hours and 36 minutes through next week.

-The noon sun angle reaches the highest point in the sky this week. At solar noon on Sunday the sun will be 68.5 degrees above the horizon in the metro.

-The summer solstice occurs on Sunday June 21st at 12:46am.

People often ask me when it's safe to plan that outdoor wedding or expect real warmth in Minnesota. You can't rush things around here in early June, which is notorious for cool rainy snaps like the first weekend in June this year. While you can't forecast day to day rain chances that far in advance, I usually tell them we can reliably expect warm summer like weather starting the third week in June. It looks like the weather is holding true to form again this year.

Enjoy!

PH

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Forecast: Drought busting rains?

Posted at 3:33 PM on June 15, 2009 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

NOAA rainfall forecasts show a 3 inch bull's eye over central Minnesota this week.

A pattern shift in the upper atmosphere is bringing rain back into the Minnesota weather forecast. A series of upper air waves and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will trigger showers and thunderstorms this week. Forecast models indicate parts of our drought stricken region could recieve over an inch of rain this week, with as much as 3 inches in some local areas.

This would be a departure from the extremely dry pattern in place since April 1st. Many locations in the central part of the Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are up to 4 inches below average rainfall in the past 3 months.

An inch of rain this week will not alleviate drought conditions. But if some areas receive 2 or 3 inches of rain, that would go a long way toward easing short term agricultural drought, and could boost lake and river levels at least temporarily.

The drought has also led to a lack of severe weather. The Twin Cities National Weather Service has not issued any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings this year. This is the latest such occurance.

Forecast game update:

Thanks to all of you who entered my little forecast game for next Monday June 22nd. The medium range model runs (especially the GFS) over the weekend indicate little run to run consistency. The European Model (ECMWF) still likes the idea of building a heat dome over the central U.S. with Minnesota on the northern edge of the heat on Father's Day. The GFS is backing off a bit, but still indicates we could push close to 90 in southern Minnesota for Sunday.

So far the GFS has not returned to the high amplitude ridge that it showed a week ago. Let's see how things evolve this week as the models begin to handle short term trends better.

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