Long range outlook: Milder next winter?

Posted at 3:36 PM on May 19, 2009 by Paul Huttner

Warmer water in the tropical Pacific Ocean signals La Nina's end.

Recent changes in Pacific Ocean water temperature signal the end of La Nina and may mean a warmer winter next year for Minnesota. That's the scenario if the trend continues and strengthens.

The latest data from buoys and other sources shows water temperatures in the region are on the rise. Right now the outlook calls for only "ENSO neutral" conditions for next winter. But many of the dynamical models are suggesting that we may be headed for a full fledged El Nino event in the next year. If that happens there are statistical correlations for a milder than average winter in Minnesota.

El Nino events occur on average every 3 to 5 years. The last El Nino event was during the winter of 2006-2007. It was a fairly mild event with tropical SST's only about 1.1 degree Celsius above average. Still it produced a mild winter about 4 degrees above average in the Twin Cities and the mildest December in over 100 years.

Other regional weather patterns during El Nino events favor heavy winter rain and mountain snows for southern California and Desert Southwest and wetter winters along the Gulf Coast.

It's too soon to tell if we will warm enough for El Nino next winter. One thing is for sure. La Nina is so...last year.

PH

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