Updraft: May 28, 2009 Archive

Report: Drought expanding

Posted at 9:03 AM on May 28, 2009 by Paul Huttner

Thursday's new U.S. Drought Monitor expands dryness westward into Minnesota.

Another dry week is taking its toll on the Upper Midwest.

Today's new U.S. Drought Monitor shows dryness expanding westward from the Twin Cities metro. The area in Minnesota in the D0 (abnormally dry) category more than doubled from last week, from 14.7% to 31.5%. Drought conditions remain most severe in the Twin Cities. Moderate drought blankets Minneapolis and the west metro. St. Paul and the eastern metro suburbs are in the severe drought category.

The area of severe drought extends from the east metro northeast into the lake country of northwest Wisconsin. 40% of Wisconsin is now in moderate drought.

The lack of rainfall this month has further parched an already dry landscape. May is on schedule to be the third driest on record for the Twin Cities. So far this month only .46" of rain has fallen in the rain gauge at Twin Cities Airport. That's only about 14% of the monthly total of 3.24."

There are some remarkable facts related to the growing drought.

-The UM St. Paul Campus recorded the third highest pan evaporation rate on record last Wednesday. The 94 degree temperature and dry gusty wind sucked an incredible .63" from the soil in one day. That's nearly three times the average daily evaporation for May. Records have been kept there since 1972.

-White Bear Lake is now within 11 inches of the all time low water level recorded during the drought of 1988.

-Lake levels in northern Wisconsin have dropped by as much as 8 feet. Some are now at the lowest point in 70 years.

-The dryness has helped farmers with a strong start planting corn and soybeans, but rapidly diminishing topsoil moisture will begin to adversely affect crops in the near future.

Wednesday's rain system bypassed the Twin Cities but did bring signifigcant rain to southeast Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. Unfortunately, most of the rain fell south of the worst drought areas.

The weather maps favor continued dryness in the Upper Midwest for the next 7 to 14 days. Often this time of year a strong warm front will set up to our south and push Gulf moisture northward through Iowa. This scenario can bring heavy late May and early June rains to Minnesota. Scanning the medium range forecast models I do not see such a pattern developing yet. Look for more news coverage on the expanding effects of the drought in the coming weeks.

We need a good old fashioned soaking in the metro or things are going to get really ugly around here in a hurry. I will be scanning the maps for a pattern change. Lawns, lakes, and fields are thirsty for a good long drink.

PH

Season's first tropical storm brewing

Posted at 5:23 PM on May 28, 2009 by Paul Huttner

TD One off the Atlantic Coast may become Tropical Storm Ana.

Here we go again.

Hurricane season begins on Monday, but the Atlantic hurricane season is already showing signs of life. Tropical Depression One is gaining strength about 300 miles southeast of Providence, Rhode Island. The National Hurricane Center says it may become the season's first tropical storm tomorrow. It is expected to remain at sea and is not a threat for make a landfall in the U.S. If Ana becomes the season's first named storm tomorrow it will be a little early this year. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th.

NOAA is forecasting near average tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin this year. An average season would produce 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major (Category 3-5) hurricanes.

Changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean may affect this year's season. Cool La Nina conditions have disappeared, and a transition to a warmer Pacific Ocean is occurring. This may make for a difficult hurricane forecast this year as it takes time for the effects to change upper level wind patterns in the tropics.

PH