Updraft: March 31, 2009 Archive

Old fashion meteorology

Posted at 7:16 AM on March 31, 2009 by Craig Edwards

In the days before short term, fine grid computer models, forecasters would track the center of lowest surface pressure on a weather map. From experience we learned that the heaviest snow falls about 100 miles to the north of the surface low path. Over time, this strategy has changed little.

Thus with the track of this late winter/early spring storm moving from Sioux City, Iowa to about Hutchinson we expect the heaviest snow to be from about Alexandria, Fergus Falls, Bemidji to Ely. Some lake enhanced snow could accumulate to as much as a foot towards Duluth by early Wednesday morning.

forecast track of surface low, with circles of uncertainity

Silver lining - Friday looks okay. Did you realize that by next Monday, opening day for baseball that our average high is 52 in the Twin Cities. Let's see what Saturday night and Sunday brings, before we reach Monday.

CE

Sleet and/or hail

Posted at 4:02 PM on March 31, 2009 by Craig Edwards

I was tracking some developing storms that had formed from Buffalo through the Twin Cities to Red Wing at 345pm. Paul Huttner, in recovery mode, informed me that he had word of pea size hail in Robbinsdale about that time. So, heads up north and east of the Twin Cities between 415 and 515pm.
CE