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NOAA validates cold December

Posted at 7:59 AM on January 27, 2009 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)

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On the heels of a chilly December we are experiencing a very cold January. Temperatures are running about five to seven degrees below the thirty year normal.

I appreciate NOAA's transparency in showing the magnitude of the December chill. Our region of the country was originally forecast to have a rather high probability of above normal temperatures this winter season, acording to the Climate Prediction Center outlook released in mid November..

CE
natures messenger

Comments (2)

So if you thought it was cold last month, you're right.

Have there been released any statistics on how well these monthly and seasonal forecasts verify? Is there skill in these long-range forecasts? How does persistence do as a predictor (i.e., if it's cold this season, it'll be cold next season)?

Posted by Chris B. Critter | January 28, 2009 11:33 AM

When I worked for NOAA, metrics on accuracy were required for accountability in enhancing and improving the quality of forecast and warnings. So I'm sure there is a record of past performance on these outlooks.

Winter season outloks seem most accurate when it can be related to an El Nino. Perhaps the CPC outook this winter season favored the decadal trend of milder winters, even without an El Nino.

In short term forecasting there is a phrase that says the trend is your friend.

Posted by Craig Edwards | January 28, 2009 12:50 PM

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