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Updraft: March 26, 2008 Archive

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1" to 10"

Posted at 7:02 AM on March 26, 2008 by Paul Huttner

Our Easter weekend snowfall quite literally ranged from 1.3" in Forest Lake just north of the metro to 10" at Red Wing to the south.

Here we go again.

The range with our next system may not be so extreme, but all indications are that we'll see another big snowfall gradient from north to south across the metro. The computer models have been all over the place in the past 48 hours with this system. That's what we call in the weather business, a "low confidence" forecast.

The latest "ensemble" models paint the heaviest snow bull's eye south of the metro from Redwood Falls to Rochester. That's different from last night when they put it right over the Twin Cities. One model suggest the Twin Cities could see heavy snow, while another says it will all stay south and we get skunked. That would be okay with me, by the way!

There are two more major model runs before the snow starts flying late tonight or tomorrow morning. Let's see how much flopping around they do.

The one thing that seem like a sure bet is, if you are driving south on I-35 tomorrow, plan on snow.

PH

Disappearing act

Posted at 1:26 PM on March 26, 2008 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)

The warmth of the March sun is accelerating disappearing act of the season long snow cover. South facing slopes have the benefit of more direct sunlight and thus are the first to expose the leftovers from autumn.

A couple of things are happening with the fading compressed snow pack. Melting is beginning to transport the moisture over the frost covered soil. Water is trickling into the channels and under the ice of ponds and creeks. A percentage of the snow is transitioning straight from ice to vapor, known as sublimation. Some of the snow decaying to liquid is evaporating into the lower atmosphere, aided by a rush of wind. All of these physical processes are important considerations in the accuracy of forecasting river crests from spring snow melt.

River forecast for southern Minnesota

Remember the official temperature is recorded in the shade, so a daytime stroll in direct sunshine can make the ambient air temperature feel darn right delightful.

Speaking of disappearing....the potential for a significant snowfall in proximity to the southern suburbs of Minneapolis/St. Paul is lessening with each computer model run.

Graphical snowfall potential
CE

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