Updraft: March 25, 2008 Archive

Consensus, sort of

Posted at 7:09 AM on March 25, 2008 by Paul Huttner

There are a lot of computer models available for forecasts in the U.S. these days.

The NWS has a product called SREF or Short Range Ensemble Forecasts that combines the output from 21 models. The goal is to combine all the extremes to form a "consensus" forecast, taking the variability of any one model out of the equation. It works brilliantly, sometimes.

The SREF is taking the snow field our next weather system on Thursday south of the metro. It lays down a band of snow from Redwood Falls and Worthington to Mankato, Albert Lea and Rochester. The Twin Cities is right on the northern edge of the moisture, which should keep most of the accumulating snow to our south if SREF "verifies."

NOAA "SREF" forecast page

One of the models, the GFS keeps a band of snow in the metro Thursday. It will be interesting to see how this is resolved over the next 36 hours. The GFS has gone back and forth with the snow band lately. The "art" of weather forecasting (my gut) tells me we'll probably be right on the edge, with the best chance of heavy snow just south.

Stay tuned on this one folks, the new model runs in this morning suggest this snow may have a shot at the Twin Cities.

After a drier and sunnier Friday and Saturday, the next and more potent system rolls in Saturday night and Sunday with a rain snow mix. There may even be a chance of thunder with this one.

There is good news in the forecast if you're looking for spring. The trend is toward milder 40's and even a shot at 50's by late next week.

Yes, I know we've been saying it's going to get milder "next week" for a few weeks now. But we had a long way to go coming from a high of 11 and a low of -6 back on March 7th! So we've made progress.

PH

Moving from winter to spring...a bumpy ride

Posted at 1:36 PM on March 25, 2008 by Craig Edwards

Minnesotans are now starting to realize the effects of an average winter linger well into spring. Sure the fun in the snow, ice fishing and walks in the pristine loveliness of a winter landscape create moments of seasonal memories. But now that we are approaching the start of the baseball season, many believe it is time to move on.

Before we can embrace the rebirth of nature, we have to travel the road of melting snow, thawing soils and eroding ice cover. Even the road less traveled is showing the upheaval of ice and frost.

The cycle of daytime melting and overnight refreeze is ideal for running maple syrup. It is equally basic to the formation of sizeable pot holes. Melting snow pools into these holes and often camouflages the depth, before driver's hands are shaken free of the steering wheel.

Just this past Sunday a good friend was returning from an Easter visit with family in southwest Minnesota. About 20 miles from home on highway 212 they were unable to avoid a formidable pot hole. A direct hit dinged the rim and deflated the tire.

Replacing a rim and reinstalling the tire carried a cost of around $150, which was priced with a used rim. The line at the salvage lot on Monday morning was five customers deep waiting to purchase a replacement rim.

The weather team is keeping tabs on yet another snow event. This one is similar to most of the snow storms this year, taking a track that favors southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. Before the week is done, Madison will add to their already record total of more than 100 inches. Milwaukee is closing in on a seasonal snowfall record as well.

Wisconsin seasonal snowfall

CE