Auto pilot

Posted at 9:55 AM on February 22, 2008 by Craig Edwards (2 Comments)

One of the most dreaded phrases that can haunt a meteorologist is, caught by surprise. By nature, weather forecasters know that predicting the weather, particularly long range, remains a challenge. Monitoring computer models, assessing trends and latching on to consistency of model runs determine our confidence level.

There are times when a forecaster can sit back and let the whims of nature play out without much drama and impact. This looks like a good weekend to put the gone ice-fishing sign on the weather lab door.

Seasonal temperatures, adorned with partly cloudy skies and accompanied by light winds make the forecast a real yawner! But your MPR weather team has the antenna fixed on the western horizon and events that may create some excitement on Monday.

Radar screens should light up with precipitation in South Dakota early Monday. We’ve seen this scenario before, only to watch the wintry mix take aim at Albert Lea, Rochester and LaCrosse.

Know this, your weather experts remain in the cockpit, even though we temporarily have engaged the auto-pilot. You are now free to move about the wintry landscape.

CE

---

Comments (2)

And...once again....it looks like it will go south. I think no model can be trusted more than 4 days out!

Posted by Ari | February 22, 2008 10:28 AM

---

Having looked at all your weather info, couldn't find much mention of what I think most of us value as the major component of weather / change, i.e. WIND. Didn't find any mention in UPDRAFT (seems to be related) or Jet Streaming (Whoosh-it too). Noticed 3-mentions in Weather Coverage on 1/11, 1/29 and 1/30. Had hoped NPR could at least compete with wunderground.com to satisfy a sailor's gut feeling for this major relative of "draft" and "jet streaming. Would "NE 10-15" (sample) be asking too much?

Posted by archie manning` | February 24, 2008 10:28 AM

---

---

Recent Entries

• Climate Cast: Putting the Moore tornado in the context of Climate Change
• Drought erased in Metro; 100% sunny today; Weekend not so scary wet
• OK Tornado Rated EF-5; Link to climate change? Sun returns tomorrow
• Mixed bag for Memorial Day weekend weather
• A teachable moment on tornado safety
• Moore tornado worse than May 1999; showers and thundestorms split Minn. today
• Moore "Super Tornado": Radar shows "hook echo" and "debris ball"
• "May-soon" continues; More scattered rain & T-Storms today; Slight severe risk
• MPR Weather Live Blog: Metro severe threat fades; Chance of rain overnight
• Tornado Watch until 9pm includes the Twin Cities

• E-mail this page
• Print this page
• Tweet this page
• Share this

Services

• Hourly Newscast
• HD Radio
• iPhone App / Mobile
• E-mail newsletters
• RSS feeds
• Podcasts
• Submit your photos
• Videos
• Weather
• Most e-mailed stories