Updraft: January 31, 2008 Archive

Pattern change ahead

Posted at 7:00 AM on January 31, 2008 by Paul Huttner

This is the time of the year when I like to look a little more closely at the medium range forecast models. You see, we've been stuck in this cold rut since our early January thaw, and I like to see when the overall "big picture" upper air pattern will shift again, brining in warmer air.

Yesterday, I think I found it.

As we begin to climb out of the deep freeze over the next 24 hours, a pattern shift is emerging that leads to a couple of likely events.

1) Our upper air flow shifts from the Canadian arctic to the Pacific. This is a critical directional shift in the upper winds that will bring in milder air. Today looks like it will be the last sub-zero morning in southern Minnesota for about a week if not longer. And if we do dip below zero in the next 2 weeks, it may be just below zero for an hour or two, not 10 or 15 below.

2) The storm track returns. The storm track has favored heavy snows for Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota for much of the winter. They have seen more than 40 inches of snow. The Twin Cities has seen only about 20 inches. That may change, and after a chance of light snow from the Twin Cities north Friday night, the first chance for heavy wet snow in the metro and much of central and northern Minnesota emerges next Monday into Tuesday.

A classic "panhandle hook" storm is taking shape for next Monday. It's too early to say where it will go or how much snow may come our way, but we could be plowing in parts of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Stay tuned, and enjoy the milder air as we move well into the 20's Friday and this weekend.

Gimme Back My Weatherball!

Posted at 7:41 AM on January 31, 2008 by Paul Huttner (6 Comments)

As Chief Meteorologist for MPR they give me a fair amount of leeway. A while back I told them I wanted to bring back the Weatherball.

Since it's not likely they'll allow me to erect a huge tower at 7th and Cedar, I've decided to bring the Weatherball back in cyberspace. So starting today, I'll post my Weather Lab Weatherball color coded forecast right here. Check this space for changes in the color code and forecast.

In case you’re too young to remember the Weatherball, here's a link to the jingle.

Weatherball info & jingle

The forecast jingle goes like this:

When the Weatherball is glowing red, warmer weather's just ahead.
When the Weatherball is shining white, colder weather is in sight.
When the Weatherball is wearing green, no weather changes are foreseen.
Colors blinking by night and day say, precipitation's on the way.

Weather Lab Weatherball forecast today: RED

Ah, the power of cyberspace!

PH

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Looking down from above

Posted at 1:07 PM on January 31, 2008 by Craig Edwards (1 Comments)

NOAA's satellite imagery is invaluable to track developing and dissipating weather, as well as locating the subtle features that determine intensity and movement of weather making systems.

Infrared imagery allows around the clock surveillance of the hemisphere, with the capability of forecasters to target their interest on specific regions.

It has been my observation that television weathercasters are handicapped in their limited time to adequately demonstrate the importance of satellite information on formulating your forecast. What a shame! Visually it can be a big attention grabber, particularly during major weather events.

This afternoon a winter calamity is enfolding in the middle Mississippi Valley making tracks for the Ohio Valley. The infrared imagery, which shades the clouds and earth by sensing the temperature, is capturing the drama about to begin in Indianapolis.
Infrared satellite imagery

As we close out January, you'll find it interesting to know that there has been more snow at Indianapolis this month than in Minneapolis or Denver. Indiana's Capitol City will add to the current monthly total of 4.3 inches before midnight.
CE

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