Updraft: January 16, 2008 Archive

Complex forecast

Posted at 7:14 AM on January 16, 2008 by Paul Huttner

We'll earn our keep as weather folk the next few days. The easy part is the cold; the hard part is the snow.

A fairly complex weather pattern is emerging over the next 48 hours or so. Two lows will graze Minnesota. The first will spin up on the leading edge of the cold air tonight and Thursday. This one will track from Iowa into Wisconsin, bringing a pretty good swath of 3 to 6 inches of snow from Des Moines to Decorah, Rochester, La Crosse and on to Green Bay.

The second one is a clipper that will slide through western and southern Minnesota Friday ahead of the really cold air heading in for the weekend. This one may bring an inch or so of snow, but the real danger will be strong winds and blowing snow which may produce near blizzard conditions for western and south central Minnesota Friday in it’s wake.

NWS graphical "synopsis"

If everything works according to plan, the Twin Cities will be on the edge of both systems, and our snow totals will be light. Any change in track could bring more snow to the metro, but for now it looks like snow may range from just flurries in much of the metro, to maybe and inch or two, especially in the far southeast metro.

Then the cold moves in. It looks as if we may go below zero in the Twin Cities Friday night, and not climb much above zero until Monday morning.

Weekend arctic outbreak

Put another log on the fire!

PH

Close to the summit, perhaps?

Posted at 2:33 PM on January 16, 2008 by Craig Edwards

We are half way through the meteorological winter. Climatologist lump December, January and February together to more conveniently track seasonal historical records. Image that, scientists trying to keep things simple!

While the long term daily weather records document a slow rise in average temperatures commences on the 18th of January, this happens to be the day we will begin to experience the blustery blast of arctic air that Minnesotans love to celebrate with Winter Carnivals and such.

Perhaps this mid point of winter will also coincide with reaching the summit of bitter cold. But long time meteorologists have learned not to boldly proclaim that this may be as cold as it gets. Groundhogs day has long been notorious for frigid temperatures. Consider the minus 32 in the Twin Cities on February 2nd, 1996.

We will share in this slug of arctic air with a large part of the nation’s midsection. Even Asheville, North Carolina, home to some of the happiest people in the USA, is looking at snow and cold. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for tonight, where two to four inches of snow may accumulate.
Asheville, NC forecast

CE