Updraft: January 3, 2008 Archive

Big Weather

Posted at 7:03 AM on January 3, 2008 by Paul Huttner

There are days when weather is a subtle as a butterfly flapping its wings in China. Then there are days when it's like a two by four hitting you on the head.

The two by four in this case is a huge vacuum of a storm slamming the west coast with high winds, rain and mountain snow. Blizzard warnings are flying for the Sierra Nevada range in California where 3 to 6 FEET of snow will blanket the slopes in the next two days. Widespread soaking rain will soak the lower elevations in much of California, Arizona and Nevada. This is good news for the drought stricken west.

On the front side of the storm, Chinook winds will race through Wyoming and Colorado with gusts over 60 mph. When the Chinooks blow that hard they can cause damage similar to severe thunderstorms here in Minnesota.

For us, the winds will bring a January thaw. Big storms pounding the west are the large scale mechanism that warms us up in winter, as milder Pacific air gushes in and replaces arctic air in the region.

The forecast question for us in this pattern is always how much low stratus, advection fog, and drizzle we could develop as the warmer air glides over our cold snowpack. If it's thick, temps can be held down into the low to mid 30's. If the winds are able to mix the lowest 5,000 feet well, we may see sun and temps can top 40.

As you feel the wind bite today, know that it's pushing in warmer air in the next 48 hours. And it's part of a big weather system that is affecting the entire western U.S.

NOAA Storm Watch

PH

January Thaw in the Twin Cities - Almost Always in the Cards

Posted at 1:05 PM on January 3, 2008 by Mark Seeley

As we anticipate an early January thaw this year in the Twin Cities, the question occurs to me why do we always seem to expect this?

The Twin Cities climate statistics certainly support it. There have been only three years since 1891 when the January temperature did not rise above the 32 degrees F mark at least once. Those years, 1912, 1978, and 1979 host some of the coldest Januarys in history. In 1912 we set a record for the longest time below zero F and it marked the coldest January of the modern record. 1978 brought the 12th coldest January, while 1979 brought the 6th coldest. Even 1977 was the 2nd coldest January on record, but we crept above freezing on one day during that month.

On average there are 8 January days that reach above the freezing mark in the Twin Cities. In 1944 the daily high climbed above 32 degrees F 21 days during the month - remarkable. Will the upcoming January thaw repeat itself later this month? I think at least once.....