Updraft: December 20, 2007 Archive

High Bust Potential

Posted at 7:01 AM on December 20, 2007 by Paul Huttner

I don't like this weekend's potential storm system.

Meteorologists like nice neat little packages when forecasting a storm. This pre-Christmas weather gift looks like a 2 year old wrapped it. The NWS folks in Chanhassen aptly called it "problematic" in their early morning forecast discussion.

Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion

At least the computers agree on a "split" solution to the "storm" with northern and southern branches. This should prevent the potential blizzard scenario some of the models painted earlier in the week.

The NAM model, which stubbornly predicted a stronger more compact storm, has finally come into line with the GFS's thinking about two separate centers. Now the NAM is hinting that the northern stream may stall enough to keep snow going most of Saturday and let a few inches pile up from Duluth to the Twin Cities. The GFS is not impressed, keeping the system "progressive" and hinting at limited snowfall amounts in the metro to an inch or two, with a bit more up north.

I still like the GFS solution for now, but I don't like the looks of this one. This is literally one system that the outcome could range from just flurries in the metro, to five inches or more.

That's what we call a forecast with "high bust potential."

Stay tuned....

PH

A season to appreciate our public servants in weather

Posted at 5:05 PM on December 20, 2007 by Mark Seeley (1 Comments)

For some reason the holiday season always makes me stop to think about blessings that are either overlooked or underappreciated. One group that falls in this category - the National Weather Service Employees who are tasked to monitor and forecast our weather 24/7/365. Having worked with them for 30 years I have gained a great appreciation for how seriously they take their work, and for the most part what a great job they do. As we cope with our anxieties about what challenges the holiday season will bring weatherwise, let's not forget that we have some highly competent people out there working on our behalf to insure that should anything appear which may obstruct our plans or even threaten our well being, they will let us know about it.

If you wish to send a holiday greeting to our friends at the weather service you can simply email either the Chanhassen Office (w-mpx.webmaster@noaa.gov) or the Duluth Office (w-dlh.webmaster@noaa.gov). It might be a nice gesture and much appreciated.

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