Updraft: November 30, 2007 Archive

Real deal

Posted at 7:59 AM on November 30, 2007 by Craig Edwards

After experiencing one of the driest Novembers on record in central Minnesota, we’ll make up some of the deficit quickly in the next 48 hours. Precipitation amounts since Oct. 19 have been less than one-tenth of an inch from Alexandria to St. Cloud to the Twin Cities. According to the State Climate Office, this places November of 2007 in the top five driest.

If you have shopping on your to-do list for Saturday, you’ll want to take advantage of the Early Bird Specials and find yourself safely back home around lunch time. Yes, indeed, the well-advertised snow and sleet will play havoc with travel from noon Saturday to daybreak on Sunday.

The latest computer models suggest just enough warmer air at 5,000 feet will cause the snow to mix with sleet in the Twin Cities on Saturday night. This will cut down on the snow accumulation, but still leave roadways treacherous in spots. Traveling on I-94 in the afternoon will be a slow go at best.

Take a survey of your snow-free yard today; you may not see it again anytime soon.
Heavy snowfall probabilities
CE

Taking Aim

Posted at 3:54 PM on November 30, 2007 by Paul Huttner

My family is a bunch of weather geeks.

When we were kids (and we still are) watching storms was a favorite pastime. Summer thunderstorms and especially the anticipation of big winter storms created a buzz around the Huttner ranch.

What's the track? How much moisture? And of course, how much snow?

Funny how things haven't changed. I still love winter storms. I love forecasting them, and I love watching them and going out to measure snow every few hours at the Huttner Weather Lab.

If you don't have to travel this weekend you can enjoy the storm. If you must travel, tonight and early Saturday should be okay. Conditions will deteriorate quickly Saturday after lunch and be tough to impossible until Sunday morning. Things will improve gradually Sunday afternoon.

Here's a nice place to follow the storm as I will be doing at the Weather Lab this weekend.

Twin Cities NWS Storm Page

Here's my early call on how the storm will evolve based on data available at 3pm Friday afternoon. Keep in mind this can change as new computer runs come in tonight and early Saturday morning.

All the latest data suggest we are right on track with our forecast thinking.

Still looks like the heaviest snow band (6”-12”+) could lay out NW metro…Annandale-Buffalo-Elk River-Cambridge and up to St. Cloud, Brainerd, Duluth and the North Shore. Should stay all snow there.

Central Metro next…5”-10+” from Lake Minnetonka-St. Louis Park-Minneapolis-St. Paul-Hudson with a possible changeover to sleet Saturday night which would lower totals into that 5-10” range if it occurs. If it stays all snow we bump up into the heavier snow band of 6”-12”.

South Metro 3”-6”+ with changeover to sleet and possible freezing rain Saturday night….

Ice storm possible Sioux Falls-Worthington-Mankato-Owatonna-Albert Lea-Rochester-La Crosse.

As you can see a change in the track or warm air penetration by 50-60 miles can radically change the forecast. Bottom line it’s going to be a mess everywhere, travel will be brutal tomorrow pretty much statewide except the far north and west, and this is going to be a great storm to talk about!

Let it snow!

PH