Winter Olympics: Where's the snow?

Posted at 8:34 AM on February 10, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

It's a mad scramble on Cypress Mountain near Vancouver these days.

The usually white slopes are brown due to a lack of snow. Organizers are bringing in snow by the truckload from higher elevations to try and pull of a miracle at the Olympic freestyle venue.

High temperatures in Vancouver have been in the 50s recently, and the unusually balmy weather is forecast to last right through the Olympic Games during the next two weeks. What has fallen from the sky recently has been rain, and not the snow they depsartayely need. Temperatures have even stayed above freezing at night, so they can't make snow either.

You can probably blame El Nino for the mild weather in Vancouver. In a twist of atmospheric circulation, Washington D.C. might be a better place to hold the Olympic skiing events than Vancouver this year.

Plenty cold here:

Here in Minnesota we're trading snow for cold. Polar high pressure is settling in over the next few days. That means clear skies with bright sunny days, and cold arctic nights. The fresh snow cover radiates efficiently. That means sub-zero reading will be common at night.

Our next chance of (hopefully light) snow comes in on Friday and Saturday.

PH

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Storm rolls east

Posted at 4:30 PM on February 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Winter storm warnings stretch from Iowa to the east coast Tuesday afternoon.

Our 45 hour marathon winter storm is in the books for Minnesota, but the rampage continues. As many as 18 states are under winter storm warnings late Tuesday as the impressive and long lasting storm rolls east.

Snowfall totals of one foot or more are forecast or occurring from Chicago to Washington D.C. as the system cranks out more snow. This is truly becoming the winter of discontent for many in the USA.

This storm has an interesting and rather unusual path. It tracked south from the Arctic Circle into the eastern Dakotas before swinging east into southern Illinois on the trip to the east coast.

It may surprise many to know that storms can travel thousands of miles and maintain the parent circulation. There have been documented instances of Mongolian dust storms completely circling the globe in 9 days. In 1966 Hurricane Faith crossed the Atlantic twice and moved from he tropics to nearly the north pole. Faith has the longest documented path of any hurricane on record.

Track of Hurricane Faith in 1966.

In the Pacific Hurricane John lasted an incredible 31 days as a tropical cyclone.

Hurricane John in 1994.

As our neighbors to the east dig out, we can be thankful for a break in the snowfall. And we can also hope the same storm doesn't circle the big upper low over northeast Canada and hit us again in a week or so.

PH

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Unusual winter storm winds down

Posted at 8:35 AM on February 9, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Our latest winter storm was unusual in many ways.

-The track of the upper low pressure system was almost directly north to south. The parent upper low tracked from near Winnipeg straight south along I-29 to near Sioux Falls Monday. This is almost the opposite of our more common Alberta Clippers (NW to SE) or our Panhandle Hook or Gulf Storms (SW to NE).

-The duration of continuous snowfall was much longer than most of our winter storms. Through 8am local time today, we've recorded 42 continuous hours of snowfall at Twin Cities Airport. An "average" winter storm might produce between 12 and 18 hours of continuous snow. The slow moving nature of this storm caused the long duration snowfall event.

Even with the long snow, it is nowhere near a record. The record for continuous snowfall in the Twin Cities is 88 hours; from December 6th to December 9th, 1969. That storm produced 14" in the Twin Cities.

-Snowfall intensities remained light during much of the storm. There were only a few hours of moderate intensity snow. This is why snowfall totals were not even higher given the long duration of snowfall. Even so, snowfall totals across the metro ranged from 4.5" (NE metro) to 10.5" (SW metro) which is a respectable storm.

NWS snowfall total map shows heaviest bands favored areas west and south of the metro. Note the odd "kink" in the snowfall near Twin Cities Airport, which recorded one of the lowest totals in the storm, (5.5" two-day total) even though much higher totals were recorded in all directions from the airport.

-A compact arctic air pocket moved with the storm right under the center of the cold core low. Temperatures briefly plunged below zero in a relatively small area in southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota last night. It was -6 in Pipestone and -11 in Sioux Falls before temperatures actually rebounded overnight to above zero readings.

This is almost opposite of what we usually see, with arctic air following behind winter storms.

The storm pulls out today, and sunshine returns tomorrow. The good news is, our next chance of snow will not arrive until Saturday!

PH

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Snow continues overnight; slick AM rush ahead

Posted at 6:30 PM on February 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Make it stop!

Snowfall will decrease in coverage overnight in southern Minnesota, but a persistent band looks like it may linger over the Twin Cities metro into Tuesday morning.

Winds will increase a bit overnight into to 10-20 mph range, and some blowing snow is likely in open areas. Cold arctic air behind the storm is wrapping into southwest and south central Minnesota. Temperatures will remain near and below zero overnight.

This marathon snow event has produced snow for 30 hours in many Minnesota locations. As of 6pm, anywhere form 5" to 9" has fallen in the metro. For some reason NWS "official" snowfall reports for Twin Cities Airport are slow in coming today in the local storm reports.

I expect an additional 2" to possible 4" overnight in the Twin Cities, with lesser amounts elsewhere.

A band of lake effect snow will continue to produce snowfall near Duluth.

Here are some ways to keep track of the storm as we head into Tuesday morning.

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest NWS snowfall summary
-MNDOT traffic cams & info
-Latest surface map
-Latest hourly observations

PH

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Storm Continues: Nightmare PM rush in progress

Posted at 3:36 PM on February 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

A car spins put on Highway 494 at Stone Road in Minnetonka this afternoon.(MNDOT traffic cam)

Here we go again.

Another nightmare rush hour is in progress in the Twin Cities. Travel anywhere in Minnesota is difficult today. On a scale of 1 to 10 the hassle factor on this storm is about a 9.

The slow moving low pressure system causing the hassle is spinning near Sioux Falls this evening as it churns slowly south into Iowa tonight. Snowfall will continue through this evening and into Tuesday in most of southern Minnesota before tapering off by around lunchtime as the storm begins to pull away. That means another slick rush hour on tap for Tuesday morning, and a rough night of travel around the state.

Widely variable snow totals:

Snowfall reports with the storm so far have been pretty close to expected with some interesting exceptions. As expected, the heaviest snow has fallen in central Minnesota and the south and west metro, with lesser amounts in St. Paul and the east metro. Here are some updated totals:

-Chanhassen 5.9"
-Deephaven 5.9"

0235 PM SNOW NEW MARKET 44.57N 93.35W
02/08/2010 M3.5 INCH SCOTT MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL 8.0

0137 PM SNOW LAKEVILLE 44.68N 93.24W
02/08/2010 M5.5 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0137 PM SNOW PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.43W
02/08/2010 M6.0 INCH SCOTT MN NWS EMPLOYEE

In a quirk of this storm, there appears to be a snow deficit near the Twin Cities Airport. So far the NWS is reporting only 2.4" at MSP through noon. This is likey due to the linear nature of the intense snow bands which have so far avoided the area neat Bloomington and Twin Cities Airport.

-Twin Cities International Airport 2.4"

1241 PM SNOW BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
02/08/2010 M2.6 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

IN LAST 6.5 HOURS

0834 AM SNOW 5 SW ST PAUL 44.90N 93.17W
02/08/2010 M3.5 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

Since snowfall reports always come in dribs and drabs to the NSW from observers during storms, you can get the latest NWS snowfall summaries below.

Stay safe and allow plenty of extra travel time today!

-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest snowfall summary
-MNDOT traffic cams and info

PH

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Storm Update: Snow continues, slick PM rush ahead

Posted at 10:12 AM on February 8, 2010 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)

5" on the back deck at the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven as of 9:30am.

The snow is piling up with some impressive totals today. As of mid morning here are some of the heftier snow totals.

-Willmar 7.5"
-Deephaven 5"
-Morris 4.7"
-New Market 4.5"
-Albert Lea 4.5"
-Hutchinson 4.4"

You can check the latest updated snowfall totals here as they come in today.
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Winter storm warnings
-Twin Cities winter storm page
-MNDOT traffic cams and info

Expect snowfall of varying intensity to continue through PM rush and through the overnight hours. Most areas will see an additional 3" to 6" if accumulation by midday Tuesday. That should put storm total snowfall in the 5" to 10" range for the metro, with some heavier 10"+ totals possible from Willmar through Litchfield and Mankato to Albert Lea.

It looks like snow to water ratios are around 15:1 so far for this storm.

Here are a few more pics form the weather lab this morning.

Bird bath at the Weather Lab shows the cumulative effect of a snowy week.

Fence sporting fresh snowfall

Giant icicles portray February's icy grip

Snowy landscape

Stay safe and enjoy the snow if you can!

PH

(Original post 8:25am)

Today is what we call a "window" forecast. Look out the window, and what you see is what you get.

A huge area of snow stretches all the way from Grand Forks to the North Shore and all the way south through Iowa, Missouri and Arkansas today. This large, slow moving storm system is producing a consistent area of snowfall. Because of the slow speed of the storm, this long duration snow event will continue into Tuesday.

Here are the highlights from the storm so far, and what you can expect today and tonight.

-Twin Cities, St. Cloud and central Minnesota snowfall totals so far include 2" to 4" in the as of 8am this morning. I measured a fresh 4" at the Huttner Weather Lab in Deephaven this morning in the west metro.

-Northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley is reporting 6" in Pelican Rapids, 5" in Fargo Moorhead and about 3.3" in Grand Forks.

-Northeast Minnesota is reporting anywhere from 1.7" in Duluth, to as much as a foot of snow in Finland.

-Southeast Minnesota reports 2.1" at Winona as snow beging to accumulate after later start times.

-Southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota reports 3" to 5" so far in some areas. Sioux Falls set a daily snowfall record Sunday.

-The core of the storm will produce snowfall through today and tonight. I expect another 4" to 6" through tonight in most areas of central and southern Minnesota. That should put snow totals at between 5" and 10" by Tuesday morning in most areas.

-It appears the "sweet spot" for heavy snow is setting up as expected from St. Cloud through Litchfield, the west metro down to Mankato and Albert Lea. I expect we will see some totals in excess of 10" in these areas by Tuesday afternoon.

The bottom line is the snow will continue to fall at the rate of about 1" every 2 to 3 hours today. Expect snow covered roadways and slick travel well into Tuesday.

PH

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Super Bowl Storm: Hefty snow totals possible

Posted at 2:20 PM on February 7, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Twin Citis NWS weather story highlights low pressure track and snowfall potential.

Here we go again.

February is sending notice that it has every intention of showing January how to do winter in Minnesota. Another snow event is here, and this one looks a little unusual compared to many Upper Midwest snow storms.

A slow moving low pressure system dropping south form Winnipeg to Sioux Falls over the next 24 hours will bring widespread light snow to the region. Snowfall from this "Manitoba Mauler" snow system will cover most of Minnesota in the next day from north to south. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are flying for this storm.

While snowfall rates will be mostly light with a only few hours of moderate snow intensity, the long duration of this event will likely mean snowfall totals of 5" to 10" in many areas. The storm may produce some totals over 10" in the heaviest band, which as of now appear is may set up from Fargo to Alexandria, Willmar, Mankato to Albert Lea.

The bottom line is you can expect snow from now into Tuesday with this system. Most of it will be light, and there may be a lull or two in the storm, but it looks like it will slowly add up to several inches. The heaviest period of snow for the metro and southern Minnesota appears to be on Monday. This looks like a dry powdery snow with snow to liquid ratios around 15:1.

Expect slick AM & PM rush hours both Monday and Tuesday this week.

Here is my best estimate at this time of storm total snowfall for locations by Tuesday evening.

Red River Valley: 4" to 8"

North Central Minnesota (International Falls & Iron Range): 3" to 5"

Northeast Minnesota (Duluth & North Shore): Lake effect may produce 5" to 10" totals

West Central & central through south central Minnesota (Brainerd, Alex, St. Cloud, Willmar, Mankato, Albert Lea): This is where the heaviest snow appears to be slated for this storm. 6" to 12+" are possible in these areas.

Twin Cities Metro & Rochester: 5" to 10" with best chance for 10" totals in the west metro.

Southwest Minnesota & Sioux Falls: 3" to 6"

There is still a chance the storm could shift east a bit, and a shift of even 50-100 miles could bring the heaviest snow band over the metro.

The storm will plow through the Upper Midwest then head east and may produce heavy snow for the east coast again later this week!

GFS 96 hour total snowfall shows the huge reach of this storm.

Be ready for snow through Tuesday and stay tuned for updates as the storm develops!

Here are some sites to track the snow:

-Twin Cities NWS
-Grand Forks NWS
-Duluth NWS
-Sioux Falls NWS
-La Crosse NWS
-Twin Cities radar loop
-Latest surface map
-Latest hourly observations

PH

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Winter storm on the way

Posted at 4:15 PM on February 6, 2010 by Paul Huttner (2 Comments)

A long duration snowfall event is headed for Minnesota. The early look at this system which is diving straight south from Manitoba shows it has the potential to produce snow for a 36 to 48 hour period from Sunday into Tuesday.

Winter storm watches and warnings have been posted.

We will nail down snowfall amounts early Sunday afternoon as the snow begins, but people in much of Minnesota should be prepared fro snow from Sunday into Tuesday. There is the potential for 5" to 10" over much of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area by Tuesday. It appears the heaviest snow may fall in western, central and southern Minnesota just west of the Twin Cities.

Stay tuned for Updates Sunday afternoon as the storm gets going, and plan for snow with an inch or two on the ground for your ride home from any Super Bowl festivities Sunday evening.

PH

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Weekend Forecast: D.C. super storm, more Midwest snow

Posted at 3:40 PM on February 5, 2010 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)

Super Bowl weekend is bringing Super Bowl weather to much of the nation.

A major (and possibly record breaking) snow storm is plowing through the east coast this weekend. Winter storm warnings are flying all weekend long for much of the eastern U.S. including areas around Washington D.C. and Virginia. Snowfall totals of 20" to 30" are likely for these areas. It's a super storm for Super Bowl weekend.

These Mid-Atlantic Nor'easters have all the ingredients to produce heavy snows. Cold air inland, deepening low pressure over warm Gulf Stream waters in the Atlantic, and plenty of moisture to draw from the Atlantic Ocean. They may see some thundersnow with this system in convective snowbursts. These mini thunderstorms within the bigger snow storm can produce incredible snowfall rates of 2" to 3" per hour.

NOAA Saturday surface map shows intense storm winding up of the east coast.

These heavy snowfall totals would make for headlines and extended news coverage anywhere, including the Twin Cities. The difference out east is that they don't have nearly the numbers or sophistication when it comes to snow plowing and removal. You can say what you want about MNDOT, but when it comes to moving snow and keeping roadways relatively safe, they are the best in the nation in my opinion.

More snow on the way for Minnesota:

After relatively quiet Saturday, it looks like another potentially long duration snowfall event is heading into Minnesota starting on Sunday. The system is still getting organized, but it looks like a compact and potent upper low will dive down from Canada Sunday and stall over the Upper Midwest early next week. These "Manitoba Maulers" are relatively rare, but they can produce significant long duration snows. This unusual system is moving backwards, or retrograding, in the overall flow pattern.

The result for us is that as the system sits over us and deepens it will have a chance ot pull in moisture form the south. Details will evolve over the weekend, but it looks initially like snow will spread from north to south Sunday, increase in coverage and intensity Monday, and possibly linger into Tuesday. There is the potential for several inches of snow with this system. It's too early for specifics, but this system does appear to have the potential to put down 6"+ somewhere in Minnesota by late Monday.

Forecast models indicate the potential for several inches of snow in the metro Sunday night and Monday.(click on image for bigger picture)

Enjoy the quieter Saturday, and stay tuned for updates Sunday PM as our next potential snow maker approaches.

PH

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Global Temperature Data Sets Show Similar Trends

Posted at 10:50 AM on February 5, 2010 by Mark Seeley (2 Comments)

Because of numerous recent derogatory comments about climate scientists who work with global data sets, Dr. Peter Stott from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office has, just this week, offered an explanation of the three primary and independent global temperature data sets that are used by scientists to discern trends. It is interesting to note that trend analysis of the three data sets produces similar results........RECENT WARMING...especially since 1970.

Reading Dr. Stott's explanation might provide some perspective on why most climate scientists are convinced that temperatures on a global basis are indeed rising. Each location with a temperature record is given equal weight. Greater weight is not given to population centers or other specific geographic regions. In addition the measurements from ocean platforms (buoys) are also considered in the analysis.

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