Weekend chill; Chicago Lake Effect snow!

Posted at 1:25 PM on February 10, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Finally a winter like weekend!

Meanwhile in Chicago:

-Latest Chicago radar loop

PH

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Growing "snow drought" & Why the "weather dice" are loaded for warmth

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 8, 2012 by Paul Huttner (1 Comments)
Filed under: Climate change, Snow, Winter 2011-12

14.9" snowfall season to date at MSP Airport

35.5" average winter snowfall to date in the metro

42% of average snowfall so far this winter

60.9" snowfall last winter by this date!

.25" total GFS model output precip total next 16 days
(Would be 2.5" of snow at a 10:1 ratio)

15 USA cities reporting above average snowfall so far this winter

155 USA cities reporting below average snowfall so far this winter!

"Expect the unprecedented" Wunderground's Jeff Masters on climate trends

"The new "Blue Marble" image of Earth on January 4, 2012, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the new Suomi NPP satellite. The U.S. and Canada are virtually snow-free and cloud-free, which is extremely rare for a January day. The lack of snow in the mountains of the Western U.S. is particularly unusual. I doubt one could find a January day this cloud-free with so little snow on the ground throughout the entire satellite record, going back to the early 1960s. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows that only one state--Washington--had areas where precipitation accumulated more than 0.25" on January 4, 2012, which is an extraordinary occurrence for a January day." From Wunderground. Image credit: NASA.

Finally, winter?

Well at least it feels like winter in Minnesota and the Midwest today. Our lawns and fields may look brown, but the February-like chill in the air is real today.

A respectably chilly air mass has settled in, and the overall pattern looks more like winter the next two weeks.

Arctic front ahead:

Temps will moderate again by Thursday, but a reinforcing shot of cold air is just 36-48 hours away. The next front is arctic in origin, and will push south through Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday.

This stronger brand of cold will get you attention Friday & Saturday. Overnight lows will dip to near 0 in the metro, with temps well below zero in northern Minnesota.

Daytime highs will struggle to make the teens Friday & Saturday.

Another warm up in sight?

Looking down the road there are now signs of another warm up in about 2 weeks. The GFS is hinting at 40s again around Feb 23rd-24th. The AO, which has controlled our weather so far this winter, has recently gone negative. There are signs of a shift back to a positive AO, and that could mean milder air again in about 2 weeks.

There are also some signs we may turn wetter about then...

Stay tuned on that one.

Growing snow drought.

Our 14.9" season snowfall so far in the metro is just 42% of average so far this season. Last winter's "Domebuster" storm dumped 17.1" on the metro...more than all of our snow combined this season in a single storm!

Here are some other season to date snowfall totals around the region.

Sioux Falls 8.7"
Grand Forks 13.7"
St. Cloud 16.2"
Rochester 16.7"
Duluth 16.9"
International Falls 32.1"

The snow drought includes much of the northern USA. You can see how little snow has fallen compared to last winter through mid-January on the graph below.

The "snow drought" is good news for cash strapped city snow plow budgets after last winter's snow blitz.

With little snow in the forecast the next 2 weeks, it looks like Minnesota's snow drought will continue to grow. Right now (with plenty of snow potential ahead thorugh March) this is the 2nd lowest snowfall total on record for the Twin Cities.

If we manage to get theough the season with less than an additional 7.6" this will be one of the 10 least snowy winters on record.

We'll see about that.

Changing weather patterns: Are the "weather dice" loaded in favor of warmth?

As I posted yesterday, weather patterns in the last 2 years look so out of place form what I've seen since I started looking at daily weather maps about 25 years ago.

Apparently I am not alone in this observation.

One of the nation's top tropical weather experts and climate observers is Jeff Masters with Wundergound. In a recent interview, Jeff gives the best description of why the dice are loaded in favor of warmer weather that I have ever heard.

I don't normally quote so extensively from weather other blogs, but this is just too good not to share with MPR listeners and Updraft readers.

Here are some of Jeff's extremely lucid and insightful comments.

Christine Shearer: How do you think about the relationship between climate, climate change, and daily weather?

Jeff Masters: "Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to notice the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to notice climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible. If you want a longer explanation, think of the weather as a game of dice like craps or backgammon, where Mother Nature rolls two six-sided dice to decide the day's weather. There are 36 possible combinations of the two dice, and rolls can range from two to twelve. Most often, an ordinary roll like six, seven, or eight comes up; seven is the most common, with a 6 in 36 probability. Rolls of six and eight are only slightly less common, coming up with a 5 in 36 probability. These rolls of the "weather dice" correspond to typical summer weather-high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s on a nice summer day in New York City, for instance. It is much harder to roll an extreme event-snake eyes (corresponding to a record cold day, with a high near 65), or double sixes (a record warm day, with a high near 100.) These rolls only have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring-about 3%.

Now think about what happens if we take one of the six-sided "weather dice" and paint an extra spot on each side. The old die still rolls a one through six, but the new die now rolls a two through seven. The most likely roll increases to an eight, so we've shifted to a warmer climate, getting a typical summertime high of 78 degrees instead of 76. However, the increase in 78 degree days isn't that noticeable, since we've only increased the likelihood of getting an eight on our "weather dice" from 5 in 36 to 6 in 36. But now look at what has happened to extreme events as a result of loading our "weather dice" in favor of higher rolls. Whereas before we had only a 3% chance of rolling an twelve on our "weather dice"-an extreme heat day of 100 degrees in New York City-we've now tripled these chances to almost 9%, since there are three possible combinations of the dice that total twelve or higher. Moreover, it is no longer possible to roll snake eyes, corresponding to a record cold day, but it is now possible to roll a 13-a previously unprecedented weather event. Temperatures higher than 106, New York City's previous all-time high temperature, can now occur."

Pretty remarkable stuff.

Janaury continues the warm trend in USA:

A follow up on my post from yesterday on the 4th warmst Janaury in the USA. Check out the image from NOAA below and you can see how warmth focused on the Midwest in Janaury.

Again, some insight from Wunderground.

"It wasn't the warmest January in U.S. history, but it sure didn't seem like winter last month--the contiguous U.S. experienced its fourth warmest January on record, and the winter period December 2011 - January 2012 was also the fourth warmest in the 117-year record, reported NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent--the second highest value on record. Thirteen of the 550 major U.S. cities with automated airport weather stations broke or tied all-time records for their hottest January temperature:

However, extremely cold air settled in over Alaska in January, and several cities in Alaska had their coldest average January temperatures on record: Nome (-16.6 degrees F), Bethel (-17.3 degrees F), McGrath (-28.5 degrees F), and Bettles (-35.6 degrees F)."

3rd least-snowy January

We're not the only ones looking at brown grass this winter. More from Wunderground.

"According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the average U.S. snow extent during January was the 3rd smallest January snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on underground. The February 6 statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter show that only fifteen cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 6, and 155 had received below-average snowfall."

Stay tuned & be warm!

PH

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USA: 4th warmest January on record

Posted at 5:22 PM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Climate, Winter 2011-12

4th warmest January on record for the USA according to NOAA

7th warmest January in Minnesota according to Mark Seeley at UM (preliminary)

4th warmest start to meteorological winter (Dec & Jan) on record in the Twin Cities

Sub-zero again overnight in northern Minnesota

Near zero Friday & Saturday morning in the metro?

USA: 4th warmest January on record:

The data is in from NOAA for January, and this will go down as the 4th warmest year opener on record.

More details from NOAA:

"Climate Highlights -- January

•The United States Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) and Regional Climate Extremes Index (RCEI) are sensitive to extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, drought, and tropical cyclones on the national and regional scale, respectively. During January, the USCEI was above average, driven by a large extent in warm maximum temperatures. The percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures was 56 percent, which is the second highest value on record. Regionally, the West North Central, South, and West regions ranked 3rd or 4th highest for the extent of warm maximum temperature extremes."

Minnesota was "ground Zero" for January warmth. My MPR colleague and UM cimate guru Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates.

Topic: Preliminary climate summary for January 2012

"A very warm January prevailed across Minnesota. Many observers report mean monthly temperatures that are 7 to 9 degrees F warmer than average. Both Fargo-Moorhead and International Falls report their 5th warmest January in history, while on a statewide basis January 2012 appears to rank as the 7th warmest historically. Three new state record high temperatures were set for the month (on the 4th, 54 F at Marshall; on the 5th, 63 F at Marshall and Canby; and on the 10th, 59 F at Marshall). MSP International Airport reported only three mornings with below zero F temperatures, well below the average of eleven. The monthly temperature extremes were 63 degrees F at Marshall and Canby on the 5th, and -30 degrees F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the 20th. January was the 4th consecutive month with significantly above normal temperatures across the state, making the October (2011) through January (2012) period one of the warmest in state history. One final note on temperature: despite the dominance of warm temperatures, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states on four dates during the month.

Soil frost depths increased during January, starting out at just a few inches below the soil surface and dropping to as deep as 20 to 30 inches in places where there is little snow cover."

February started mild in Minnesota. Temps at MSP Airport ran a full +13.4 degrees vs. average for the first 6 days!

Our cooler weather pattern looks to persist for the next two weeks of February. We should creep back closer to what passes for "average" in Minnesota these days.

Stay tuned, and stay warm!

PH

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Broken Winter: Have weather patterns shifted beyond recognition?

Posted at 9:04 AM on February 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner (3 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

-20 at Ash Lake (northern St Louis County off Hwy 53) this morning
(Coldest spot in the nation! Thanks to Mark Seeley for this report)

-17 in Crane Lake, Minnesota this morning! (Near the Boundary Waters)

Near 0 in the metro by Saturday morning?

-20s in Europe cold wave

+50 50 degrees warmer in Alaska than this time last week

Cold air on the move around the northern hemisphere

More like winter than "spring" in Minnesota next 2 weeks

Rare tropical disturbance in Florida in February?

"Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events." -Jeff Masters describing radical changes in weather patterns over the past 2 years.

Cold Air on the move:

Northern Minnesota finally woke up to real winter this morning.

Sub-zero temps blanketed the northland, and a north wind is making it feel increasingly winter-like in the south too.

Crane Lake dipped to -17 this morning. Ash Lake to -20. That's pretty respectable for February.

The cold will linger today and tomorrow, before a brief milder spell Thursday precedes the next (more arctic) front Friday.

Yes, it's finally going to feel like winter around here by the weekend...even if the lack of snow means it still looks like early spring in much of southern Minnesota.

Shifting weather patterns:

A man walks past an ice-covered car Sunday on the frozen waterside promenade at Lake Geneva in Versoix, Switzerland.

Until 2-3 weeks ago, the cold air had been mostly bottled up around the poles and in Alaska. That's changing.

A huge arctic high pressure dome has moved into Europe bringing the coldest weather in 15 years and record snows to some areas.

Cold is also moving into the lower 48 United States this week, and it looks like it may hang around for a couple of weeks.

The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12 appears to be "fixed" in Minnesota, at least for now. February may end up being the coldest month overall this winter in Minnesota.

Is this the new normal?

The incredible record and highly unusual weather patterns of the past 2 years are causing some meteorologists (including me) to ask if a bigger shift has occurred. The weather maps we're looking at just don't seem to fit seasonal pattern we studied in school and have observed over the past 25 years.

When you look at weather maps everyday for decades there are seasonal patterns that evolve. Those patterns just don't seem to fit anymore.

Over the past two years we've seen several events that are so out of place compared to "normal" that it makes us wonder if the overall climate has shifted so much that we don't recognize what we're looking at anymore.

Consder these events of just the past two years.

-Tornado alley shifted north in 2010, Minnesota lead the nation in tornadoes in 2010

-A record number of "Billion Dollar Weather Disasters" in 2011

-Long standing all time heat records broken in many countries worldwide

-The "Broken Winter" of 2011-'12

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-A rare tropical weather disturbance in Florida in February

These events are causing many of us, like Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, to ask if we're witnessing climate shifts unlike anything we've seen before.

"I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?"

It's a great question.

I can tell you this for sure. The weather maps I'm looking at in the past two years bear little resemblance to what I've seen over the past 25 years of watching daily weather patterns.

Forecasting the weather for Minnesota these days is like forecasting for some strange land I am not familiar with. It's like a roller coater ride I can't get off, and I'm not sure where it's headed. The thing is, we're all on this ride together...and I don't know where we're going to end up.

PH

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Cold front arrives! Minnesota from space - crystal clear images

Posted at 5:57 PM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

46 degree high at MSP Airport Monday!

51 record high Monday at MSP (set in 1925)

26 "average" high Monday at MSP

+20 degrees vs. average Monday

Warmest day since January 10th
(When it reached a record 52 degrees!)

Cold front sweeps in
(20s in northern Minnesota Monday moving south)

2nd cold front due in late Thursday & Friday

Frozen lakes & lack of snow cover clearly visible on MODIS Terra images Monday

"Man Cave:" Ice fisherman pulls his truck up to his ice house on Lake Minnetonka Monday.
(Photo credit: Paul Huttner-MPR News)

Spring fever Monday!

Welcome to March 25th.

That's the date the average high reaches 46 degrees in the metro. We fast forwarded to spring once again Monday in southern Minnesota, even as a cold front stalled temps in the 20s up north.

Our 46 degree high at MSP was just 5 degrees short of another record. It was also the warmest day so far in February, in fact the warmest since our record breaking 52 on January 10th.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CST MON FEB 6 2012

: MAX MIN SNOW SNOW
:ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN FALL DEPTH
DLH : DULUTH MN : 37 / 22 / 0.00/ 0/ 1
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN : 29 / 16 / T / T/ 6
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN : 46 / 25 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 0
RST : ROCHESTER MN : 41 / 27 / 0.00/ 0/ 0
STC : ST CLOUD MN : 43 / 17 / 0.00/ 0.0/ 1

AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN : 37 / 19 /
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN : 38 / 24 /
HIB : HIBBING MN : 31 / 6 /
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN : 48 / 24 /

So far in February MSI is running a full 13 degrees above average!

Deephaven Beach on Lake Minnetonka awaits warmer days.
(Notice how far below the dock the ice (water level) is!

February "reality check" on the way:

It's early, but 46 degrees could end up as the warmest temp this month.

The maps are looking decidedly colder the next 2-3 weeks. We're feeling the effects of cold front #1 now, and cold front #2 is on the way by Thursday night.

The next two weeks look seasonably cool and we should see temps fall closer to average. Look for mostly 20s and 30s the next two weeks. This may end up as the coldest month of winter! (But still near or above average overall)

On a clear day you can see...Lake Mille Lacs!

Check out the amazingly clear images today from NASA's MODIS Terra satellite.

The first high resolution image is a 1,000 meter res shot of Minnesota. Note the brown "snow free" areas in the southwest half of Minnesota. You can see the whiter semi snow covered areas up north.
(click to enlarge images)

Details become even more vivid on this 250 meter resolution shot of central Minnesota. Note the frozen and snow covered lakes, and the snow cover as you move north.

Unfrozen Lake Superior is clearly visible on the right hand side.

After 6 straight cloudy fog filled days it is nice to know Minnesota is still visible from orbit!

PH

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Finally sunshine! Cold fronts; Will Feb be the coldest month of "winter?"

Posted at 9:08 AM on February 6, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Winter 2011-12

Bright sunshine at the weather lab today!

40 degrees in the metro and southern Minnesota today

Today - warmest day this week!

Cold front cuts through Minnesota from north to south today

Colder days ahead this week

2nd stronger "Arctic front" due late Thursday & Friday

Teens for highs by Friday?

Sub zero in northern Minnesota Friday & Saturday morning?

5:30pm sunset at MSP Wednesday
(Now light until nearly 6pm in the western sky on clear nights!)

1 hour 20 minutes of additional daylight since December solstice

3 minutes per day of additional daylight this week

12 days - pitchers & catchers report to Twins spring training in Fort Meyers!

A rare bright sunny morning at the weather lab Monday!

The sun:

After nearly a week shrouded in fog and low stratus, the sun is finally shining brightly at the weather lab this morning.

The welcome sunshine today will greet most of Minnesota, as the stubborn (and beautiful) fog bank slides east into Wisconsin.

With a milder air mass ahead of a cold front and increasingly strong February sunshine, temps will make a run at 40 today in southern Minnesota, including the metro.

Cold fronts ahead!

A cold front is cutting through Minnesota from north to south today.

A few flurries may accompany the front as it dives south. The front moved through northern Minnesota this morning, and will arrive in the metro and southern Minnesota late afternoon and evening.

Temps behind the front are about 10 degrees cooler, with 20s for highs Tuesday & Wednesday.

Arctic Front later this week!

A colder arctic air mass will sag south by Friday. It looks like a glancing blow of cold air fr about 48 hours for Minnesota Friday & Saturday.

Highs may struggle to get out of the teens both Friday and Staurday, with some sub-zero lows in northern Minnesota. The usual cold suspects like Embarrass and Ely may boast some double digit sub zero lows Friday and Saturday morning.

February 2012: The coldest month of this winter?

After the 4th warmest December & January period on record in the Twin Cities, it looks like we'll finally get one month closer to "average" in February.

Looking at the medium range maps (through February 22nd) the overall pattern looks decidedly colder. Temps may run near or slightly below average the next two weeks.

This should mean that February will end up as the "coldest" month of this meteorological winter. (Dec-Feb)

That may be good news for those who want an early spring. We usually need to "drain" the cold air from the northern latitudes in February and early March to allow things to warm up on schedule in Minnesota. If the cold air lingers up north, it can take a while for it to ooze south in March & April.

It's too early to say for sure what spring may be like this year in Minnesota. The one thing we really need is above average rainfall during April and May to try and stave off the growing drought.

If we stay dry in spring, then severe drought is going to quickly become the major weather story of spring 2012.

Snow chances increase next week?

If the maps verify, our northwest wind flow in the upper atmosphere next week will bring a family of Clippers sailing south toward Minnesota. This could mean 2-3 rounds of light snow next week.

The snows may not be heavy, but we could theoretically stack up a few inches of fresh snowfall (and gum up a few rush hours) in the next two weeks.

Stay tuned.

Brighter days ahead!

One thing we all have to look forward to is the now rapidly increasing daylight in Minnesota. You can already sense the noticeably longer days.

We've gained a full 1 hour & 20 minutes of daylight since the December solstice. We're now gaining a full 3 minutes per day, and 21 minutes per week.

The higher February sun angle means it's tougher to keep any snow cover around too, even on colder days.

Enjoy the sun!

PH

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Beautiful weekend frost; Cold fronts ahead this week

Posted at 12:03 AM on February 5, 2012 by Paul Huttner (0 Comments)
Filed under: Frost, Winter 2011-12

Just a little something to get you started early Monday.

Our stubborn weekend fog left a prize. This was one of the most beautiful weekends of "hoar frost" and "advection frost" in recent memory.

Morning hoarfrost in Highland Park.
(Photo by Greg Johnson)

More soon!

PH

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