We are half way through the meteorological summer. School supplies are already making their way to the store shelves. We have begun to notice the later sunrises and the earlier sunsets. Earlier this week overnight low temperatures slipped into the 30s in the typical cool spots of northeast Minnesota.

It has been especially humbling the last few days with regard to predicting precipitation accumulations. Computer models paint most likely areas for a good soaking, but the convective development can be impacted by outflow boundaries from decaying storms.

Thunderstorms tend to fade in the mid morning as noted by the old folklore, rain before 7am ends by 11am. Left over cloud debris shields the landscape and inhibits heating that creates instability. Forecasters monitor satellite imagery for the boundary of the clouds and sun. This creates what we call differential heating. Thunderstorms often form along these boundaries, typically drifting south and east into the more favorable unstable air.

No doubt, the records indicate that the Twin Cities metro area has been one of the driest regions since June 1st. For example Duluth has tallied over eight inches, St. Cloud 5.41 inches and Redwood Falls 4.93 inches (a very welcomed rain fell yesterday). Twin Cities International Airport has accumulated only 4.51 inches.

Midwest drought monitor

To our south, soaking rains have been experienced. Rochester has received 9.39 inches, LaCrosse 13.32 inches and nearly sixteen inches at Madison, Wisconsin during the first half of the meteorological summer.

The Climate Prediction Center has already released the outlook for August without much fanfare.

Weather outlook for August

Showers are in the forecast for the weekend, but I wouldn't necessarily start altering outdoor plans. Perhaps the thunderstorms will rumble during the cover of darkness.
CE

Usually we don't ask for rain, but things are getting a little crispy around the edges these days.

Since our weather pattern changed for the drier on about June 17th, we are showing a rainfall deficit of anywhere between 2 and 4 inches for much of central and southern Minnesota.

Our fickle summer front has been finicky the past 24 hours. Storms fired north and east of the metro dumping heavy rain in parts of Wisconsin. Heavy storms dumped record rainfall on La Crosse with 2.5" of rain!

Our best hope for rain in the metro comes today with an advancing cold front from eastern South Dakota. An organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms shows promise of holding together and making the trip through southwest Minnesota this morning, and reaching the metro before lunchtime.

These storms also have the potential to produce hail and high winds.

Sioux Falls radar loop

Twin Cities radar loop

Lucky winners could see up to an inch of much needed rainfall with the front today.

HPC day 1 rainfall

Let's hope so, I don't want to have to go and water Kerri Miller's daisies today. I promised her rain with the passage of this weather system, and this looks like the best and last shot until later in the weekend!

PH

It looks like we'll hit 90 again today. That would be the 4th time this year if we make it. We average 13 days of 90 or better here in the metro each summer, so we're running about 2 days behind schedule so far this year. I haven't heard any complaints so far about that here in the Huttner Weather Lab!

A quasi-stationary front will drift in southern Minnesota over the next 48 hours. Daytime heating and upper air disturbances will provide the trigger for scattered storms. Some could be strong to severe, with locally heavy rain a possibility. Computers and common forecast sense in these weak synoptic situations in summer dictate the possibility of 2 to more than 4 inches of rain in some areas over the next 72 hours. Be on the lookout for intense tropical downpours this week.

HPC 3-Day QPF

Lake water temperatures are running a bit below average in Minnesota this summer. I measured a comfy 73 degrees in Lake Minnetonka on Monday. We should be getting closer to 80 by this time in the summer in metro lakes.

Still 73 is just perfect for a coooling dip in the lake on a hot summery day like today. Enjoy, but keep an eye to the west for storms!

Twin Cities doppler radar loop

PH

When weather begins to break things become a blur in the weather lab. Dozens of severe weather reports were tallied by the National Weather Service on Friday. Numerous reports of tornadoes were relayed from spotters and law enforcement in northwest Minnesota and just south of Willmar.

Minnesota storm reports from Friday

Survey teams are dispatched to confirm the damage and tracks of tornadoes for science research and historical documentation. It has been learned that after further review, the validated number of tornadoes is reduced considerably from those initially reported. This is in large part due to multiple reports, from different viewing locations, of the same tornado.

Researchers at the Storm Prediction Center have determined that the preliminary numbers of tornadoes gets reduced by about thirty percent once the historical storm data is compiled.

Preliminary National storm reports for 2008

After a string of very windy days the atmosphere has settled down a little. But the turn around to warmer temperatures and higher humidity commences shortly. Expect dew points to be back close to 70 degrees once again Tuesday afternoon. Generous rains may total up to a couple of inches in spots from Tuesday night through Friday.

Rainfall potential this week
CE

Here we go again. Another round of severe weather for Minnesota.

A line of storms will spread from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front sweeping across Minnesota tonight. Individual storms are moving east to northeast along that line.

Here are some resources to keep track of warnings in your area. I'll post storm reports as I get them.

Stay safe and stay tuned!

Twin Cities NWS storm page

Grand Forks, ND NWS

Duluth NWS

FGF continues Tornado Warning for Clearwater, Mahnomen [MN] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 349 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 ABOUT 1 MILES SOUTH OF MAHNOMEN.... OR 33 MILES NORTH OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

FGF: WALL CLOUD at 03:52 PM CDT -- Spotter is 1 miles SW of Vergas, MN (Otter Tail county) -- North of CR 4 near Vergas (SN#1858 : eSpotter=Y)

FGF: 3 W Frazee [Becker Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 03:52 PM CDT --

FGF continues Tornado Warning for Clearwater, Mahnomen [MN] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 353 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF NAYTAHWAUSH...OR 32 MILES NORTH OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 37 MPH. AT 357 PM CDT..LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF NAYTAHWAUSH. PERSONS IN NAYTAHWAUSH SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

FGF continues Tornado Warning for Clearwater, Mahnomen [MN] till 4:15 PM CDT ...AT 403 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF BEAULIEU...OR 36 MILES NORTH OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS CONFIRMED A LARGE TORNADO JUST EAST OF BEAULIEU MOVING EAST. A TORNADO EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT FOR MAHKONCE AND PINE BEND. PERSONS IN THESE COMMUNITIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Becker [MN] till 5:15 PM CDT ...* AT 412 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOAD LAKE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

FGF issues Tornado Warning for Clearwater, Polk [MN] till 5:45 PM CDT ...* AT 435 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF FOSSTON...OR 40 MILES WEST OF BEMIDJI...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 36 MPH.

FGF: Swift [Roseau Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (E1.00 INCH) at 04:40 PM CDT -- hail lasted until 450 pm cdt. several large branches were also blown down.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Todd [MN] till 5:15 PM CDT ...AT 500 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM IN EXTREME NORTHWEST TODD COUNTY.

MPX: WALL CLOUD at 05:13 PM CDT -- Spotter is 1 miles E of Staples, MN (Todd county) -- Persistent wall cloud just NW of Staples. Large RFD wrap-around with shelf. Now becoming wrapped in rain.

MPX: 6 W Staples [Wadena Co, MN] emergency mngr reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 05:16 PM CDT --

MPX: 8 Se Starbuck [Pope Co, MN] public reports HAIL of baseball size (M2.75 INCH) at 05:35 PM CDT --

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Kandiyohi, Meeker [MN] till 7:15 PM CDT ...* AT 626 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTH OF PRIAM...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF RAYMOND. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.

MPX: 1 Sw Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:29 PM CDT -- one quarter mile sw of wilmar with debris in the air. still on the ground moving east at 15 mph.

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Kandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns [MN] till 7:30 PM CDT ...* AT 635 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPICER. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

MPX issues Tornado Warning for Meeker, Stearns [MN] till 7:45 PM CDT ...* AT 639 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 19 MILES WEST OF LITCHFIELD...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF KANDIYOHI. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 44 MPH.

MPX: 5 N Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:32 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 E Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:38 PM CDT -- approximately 200 yards wide. hit a farm and picked up a large amount of metal debris. moving 40 to 50 mph toward the east.

MPX: 3 E Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:42 PM CDT -- tornado weakened into the rope stage. moving ene at approximately 40 to 50 mph.

MPX: 1 S Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:46 PM CDT -- shed flattened. small trailor turned on its side. several farm tractors turned on their sides. occurred at 23171 s. wilmar road and county rd. 19. damage resulted from tornado.

MPX: Belview [Redwood Co, MN] public reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:48 PM CDT --

MPX: Delhi [Redwood Co, MN] public reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:48 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 Sw Grove City [Meeker Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 06:48 PM CDT --

MPX: New London [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 06:09 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 E Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:54 PM CDT -- one house severely damaged. two turkey barns flattened.

MPX: 4 Se Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 06:45 PM CDT -- 2 houses heavily damaged on sw 26th ave near 40th st se.

MPX: Se Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:32 PM CDT -- near intersection of county road 8 and 19.

MPX: 8 W Willmar [Kandiyohi Co, MN] trained spotter reports TORNADO at 06:47 PM CDT -- occurred near highway 40 and just east of county road 7.

MPX: Waite Park [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M84 MPH at 07:14 PM CDT --

MPX: 3 Wnw Harding [Morrison Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M67 MPH at 07:02 PM CDT -- measured by mndot road sensor on hwy 25 at mile post 140.

MPX: 5 N Watkins [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:17 PM CDT -- fifteen foot tree downed.

MPX: Waite Park [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:20 PM CDT -- power lines toppled, multiple trees downed.

MPX: 1 Sw Little Falls [Morrison Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M62 MPH at 06:53 PM CDT -- 62 mph gust recorded with dozens of trees down in vicinity.

MPX: 4 Nne Hutchinson [Mcleod Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of E62 MPH at 07:26 PM CDT -- 62 mph wind gust measured at hook lake rd.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Wright [MN] till 8:00 PM CDT ...AT 735 PM CDT...A WALL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER FOUR MILES NORTH OF COKATO.

MPX: 2 Se Clearwater [Wright Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M68 MPH at 07:43 PM CDT -- 68 mph wind gust at mndot road weather sensor on i94 at mile marker 180.

MPX: Monticello [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E65 MPH at 07:53 PM CDT -- debris on road, large branches downed.

MPX: Elk River [Sherburne Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E65 MPH at 07:20 PM CDT --

MPX: Elk River [Sherburne Co, MN] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 07:57 PM CDT -- occurred 1 mile west of elk river golf club.

NEW ULM MUNI,MN (ULM) ASOS reports gust of 51.0 knots from WNW @ 0114Z

MPX: Montrose [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:00 PM CDT -- commercial greenhouse toppled over near county road 12 and highway 12.

PX: Mayer [Carver Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:00 PM CDT -- two to three inch tree limbs severed.

MPX: 4 S Brooklyn Park [Hennepin Co, MN] asos reports TSTM WND GST of M58 MPH at 08:19 PM CDT -- 58 mph wind gust recorded at crystal airport.

MPX: 1 N Hilltop [Anoka Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:27 PM CDT -- 7 inch diameter trees down at hwy 65 and i694.

MPX: Dalbo [Isanti Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:15 PM CDT -- eight to 10 inch diameter trees down.

MPX: Delano [Wright Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:50 PM CDT -- 8 inch branch down and 2 foot diameter tree down and blocking road. time was estimated on radar.

MPX: 1 N St Paul [Ramsey Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:44 PM CDT -- 6 inch branch downed at intersection of rice and pennsylvania.

MPX continues Tornado Warning for Chisago [MN] and Polk [WI] till 9:15 PM CDT ...AT 855 PM CDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER NEAR DRESSER IN POLK COUNTY

MPX: New Prague [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 08:55 PM CDT --

MPX: St Peter [Nicollet Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 09:00 PM CDT --

MPX: 1 E Albertville [Wright Co, MN] amateur radio reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:55 PM CDT -- 12 inch tree down blocking road at intersection of highway 37 and i94. time estimated by radar.

PH

According to the Storm Prediction Center web site there were more than 200 reports of severe weather yesterday. Most reports along a path from Bismarck to Chicago. National Weather Service storm survey experts concluded that two tornadoes skipped through Dakota and Goodhue Counties to the southeast of the Twin Cities metro area.

Storm reports from Thursday

Storm survey from Dakota and Goodhue Counties

A number of ingredients appear to be aligned for strong storms today across all of the state of Minnesota. Very warm and humid air will be joined with stiff surface winds to increase low level instability during the heat of the day. Computer models are depicting a mid and upper level jet across northern Minnesota late this afternoon. This suggests a better chance for the possibility for tornadoes from Alexandria towards Grand Rapids. Severe weather watches are likely later today. Outdoor plans? Keep your eyes on the sky.

Storm Prediction Center Enhanced resolution for severe weather threat

Gusty west to northwest winds highlight your weather on Saturday. A more pleasant summer day is in store for Sunday.
CE

Severe storms are sweeping through the metro this afternoon.

Look for large hail and the potential for damaging winds as they move southeast at 35 mph.

Here are some resuorces to keep track of the storms.

Twin Cities NWS

Here are updated storm reports:

Elrosa [Stearns Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 11:10 AM CDT -- one four foot diamter tree felled.

Winsted [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 12:06 PM CDT --

MPX: Winsted [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of nickel size (M0.88 INCH) at 12:15 PM CDT --

Winsted [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 12:20 PM CDT --

1 Ssw Winsted [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of teacup size (M3.00 INCH) at 12:20 PM CDT --

Lester Prairie [Mcleod Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) at 12:25 PM CDT -- power lines and trees also felled.

12:35pm Sirens sounding in Deephaven.....

Delano [Wright Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:32 PM CDT -- three to four inch branches severed.

Shakopee [Scott Co, MN] trained spotter reports HAIL of quarter size (M1.00 INCH) at 12:36 PM CDT --

Bloomington [Hennepin Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:10 PM CDT -- two and one half foot trees toppled. occurred at 494 and xerxes ave.

6 Sse Eagan [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M68 MPH at 01:08 PM CDT -- 68 mph wind gust recorded at rosemount elementary school.

Miesville [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:25 PM CDT -- numerous trees down nearly blocking highway 50. time estimated by radar
5 Sse Burnsville [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:05 PM CDT -- more than 20 trees down in a residential area of lakeville near the intersection of highview and co rd 46. trees up to 1 ft diameter. privacy fences also blown down. time estimated on radar.

New Trier [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:20 PM CDT -- metal shed blown apart and pieces of shed wrapped around trees. garage of home partially collapsed. 2-3 ft tree uprooted. damage at hogan ave. time estimated by radar.

3 Se Burnsville [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M59 MPH at 01:05 PM CDT -- 59 mph wind gust recorded at apple valley high school.

MPX: 5 Ese Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M63 MPH at 01:22 PM CDT -- 63 mph wind gust measured at farmington middle school west.

MPX: New Trier [Dakota Co, MN] storm chaser reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:46 PM CDT -- garage, pole barn and farm outbuildings destroyed.

MPX: 3 Se Burnsville [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M59.00 MPH at 01:05 PM CDT -- 59 mph wind gust recorded at apple valley high school.

MPX: 6 Sse Eagan [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M68.00 MPH at 01:08 PM CDT -- 68 mph wind gust recorded at rosemount elementary school.

MPX: 5 Ese Lakeville [Dakota Co, MN] mesonet reports TSTM WND GST of M63.00 MPH at 01:22 PM CDT -- 63 mph wind gust measured at farmington middle school west.

MPX: 2 Ene Goodhue [Goodhue Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:40 PM CDT -- more than 30 trees have downed limbs up to 2 feet in diameter. roof off outbuilding used to house chicken and sheep. 50 ft flagpole cemented into ground bent down to ground. time estimated by radar.

MPX: Coates [Sibley Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:10 PM CDT -- 35 ft pine tree uprooted at hwy 52. time estimated by radar.

MPX: 3 Se Rosemount [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:10 PM CDT -- 35 ft pine tree uprooted at hwy 52 at coates. time estimated by radar. corrected county to dakota from sibley.

MPX: 3 Wsw Vermillion [Dakota Co, MN] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 01:15 PM CDT -- tractor trailer flipped onto its top on right side of road along northbound hwy 52 between coates and hampton. cornfields flattened in vicinity. time estimated by radar.

PH

It's been nearly a month since the last generous rainfall soaked the Twin Cities Metro area. This afternoon we find ourselves positioned close enough to a warm front that bouts of showers and thunderstorms my present opportunities for welcome rain.

Forty-eight hour rainfall potentional

The Storm Prediction Center short term computer models indicate the risk for some strong thunderstorms, with hail and gusty winds as well. Weather Watches may be expanded and extended in Minnesota and western Wisconsin as the daytime heating continues to the south of the front.

Storm Prediction Center Analysis and regional radar

A cool front remains on track to sweep across the state on Friday afternoon and night. Once again the prospects for severe weather will loom large. Comfortable weather looks to be on tap for Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

CE

Smoke visible over northern California on GOES 1km visible satellite image

These are tough times in California. Fire season seems to go year round in the past decade. Drought persists, and conditions for "explosive fire growth" are stretching northward into Oregon now.

National Fire Info

Can you blame it on La Nina? Yes, maybe. It may also be the result of longer term climate changes.

We call them teleconnections. The same atmospheric circulation patterns can persist over large areas and long periods of time. They are often driven by ocean temperatures. In this case, it's possible La Nina and cool ocean water in the tropical Pacific caused the jet stream to ridge northward over California then buckle downward over the Great Lakes all spring and into early summer.

About Teleconnections

The result? A cool wet spring in Minnesota, and hot dry months in California. When it's unusually cool and wet in one place, teleconnections say it'll be warm and dry somewhere upstream.

The good news is La Nina is breaking down in the Pacific as we head toward an ENSO neutral phase this winter.

Latest ENSO information

The bad news? Fire season usually runs through October in California. The hot dry Santa Ana winds have not even begun to blow yet.

This could be a record year for acreage to go up in flames in the Golden State.

Stay tuned, and hope for rain.

When I tell folks that there is a chance of showers on the weekend, they often question the precipitation probabilities. Five days out, I typically respond with an evasive answer, such as, I would not cancel your outdoor plans.

Historically, the climate data for the most recent thirty year average, suggests that on any given day in early to mid July in the Twin Cities there is about a 30 percent chance for measurable precipitation. We often speak of the average daily maximum and minimum temperatures, but seldom speak of the rain chances in reference to the average.

I spent a few days last month visiting with some of the younger generation of meteorologists in southern Wisconsin. One highly talented meteorologist, working out of Indiana, concurred with my befuddlement about the use of twenty percent rain chances beyond three days.

When you really think about it, forecasting a twenty percent chance of rain for Saturday night and Sunday is less than the thirty year average chance for rain. Casual listeners to a weather forecast, often hear the chance for thundershowers, without the modifier of twenty percent.

As an optimist, would it be more realistic to predict that there is an eighty percent chance of no measurable rain this weekend?
CE