Capitol View

Capitol View Category Archive: Campaign 2008

A note about margin of error

Posted at 10:17 AM on May 20, 2010 by Mike Mulcahy (2 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008


Some people have asked me why the margin of error on the latest Minnesota Public Radio News/Humphrey Institute poll is so high. It's plus or minus 5.8 percentage points. I asked similar questions to Larry Jacobs from the Humphrey Institute both before and as we were working on our stories about the poll.

He said the pollsters deliberately took a conservative approach while calculating the margin based on the response rate, the design of the survey and the methods they use to weight the responses. In other words, the margin of error is on the high side compared to what other pollsters might use, which would put the margin at about 3.7 points.

The margin of error gets bigger when the poll considers smaller samples of people, such as likely voters in the DFL primary. So when you look at the results that show Mark Dayton leading Margaret Anderson Kelliher by 10 points, the margin of error is between 6.2 and 8.75 percent. Jacobs notes that Dayton's lead is still outside the high end of that margin. He believes the bottom line is that the pollsters are being extra cautious and Dayton's lead holds up.

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Pawlenty campaign raised $750,000 in '08

Posted at 11:49 AM on January 28, 2009 by Mike Mulcahy (3 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: MN Legislature


One of the biggest guessing games in Minnesota politics is whether Gov. Tim Pawlenty plans to run for re-election next year. Pawlenty won't tip his hand until after the legislative session because he doesn't want his political plans to add even another level of contention to the debate over the budget.

But the governor's campaign reported today that Pawlenty is sitting on a healthy and growing war chest. The governor raised just over $750,000 last year and increased his cash on hand from about $375,000 to nearly $580,000. Not a bad place to start from if he is planning to run.

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The (Re)Countdown--what could happen?

Posted at 10:24 AM on November 7, 2008 by Tim Nelson
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. Senate, Recount

Thumbnail image for capitol.jpgFor now, Minnesota's U.S. Senate race is looking to set a record as the closest election in the history of that legislative body. A 355-vote margin in New Hampshire's election in 1974 is the current record.

That one wound down to a truly memorable finish. After two recounts in New Hampshire and more than six months of deadlock at the U.S. Capitol, the Senate declared New Hampshire's senate seat vacant on August 8, 1975. That was 276 days after the polls closed. Democratic challenger John Durkin and Republican incumbent Louis Wyman squared off again in a September re-vote.

But in the Watergate era, it proved extraordinarily difficult for the Republican incumbent. Wyman's Democratic challenger, John Durkin, took the seat by 27,000 votes.

That's not how it is likely to play out in Minnesota, though. How about this for a doomsday scenario?

The state has a vacancy law (204.D28) that deals with precisely such matters, and it has come into play several times. The first was in 1976, when U.S. Senator Walter Mondale was elected Jimmy Carter's vice president. Gov. Wendell Anderson resigned and had his successor, Rudy Perpich, appoint him to the vacant seat. The political maneuvering effectively ended Anderson's political career. The second case was in 2002, when Senator Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash and Gov. Jesse Ventura appointed Dean Barkley to the Senate.

Here's the relevant part, though: If a recount of this year's election stretches into January, either the state courts or the U.S. Senate (which is the ultimate arbiter of the election of its members) could declare Minnesota to have a vacant senate seat. That would trigger the state's vacancy law, which allows the governor to appoint a senator.

The law makes a crucial point here: "An appointee shall hold office until a successor is elected and qualified at a special election or until a successor is elected." That means that come January 3rd, 2009, if the matter still hasn't been settled and the election's victor declared, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty will be theoretically able to appoint a U.S. Senator (likely a Republican) who will serve at least until Nov. 3, 2009, when another election is held and a winner "qualified." Which is to say he or she gets a result certified by the state canvassing board and the seven day contest period expires.

According to Ramsey County elections manager Joe Mansky, who long served in the Secretary of State's office, that would make for a term of office ending Nov. 25, 2009. That would make for a 325 day senate term -- presuming Pawlenty doesn't appoint incumbent Norm Coleman.

And here's where the real trouble comes. If, say, the Republicans successfully argue to a state judge on January 3 (or shortly after) that the undecided election amounts to a vacancy in the office, they could effectively nullify this week's election. Minnesota's vacancy law doesn't have a look-back provision. Even if the election were subsequently settled, the law doesn't apply a past election to a vacancy that has already been filled. Filling the vacancy would automatically trigger a do-over in the next November.

Presumably, that would only occur if it looked like Coleman were trailing or in a bad legal position.

And state law wouldn't stop Al Franken from going to Washington, D.C., telling the secretary of the Senate that he is the real victor and asking the Senate to seat him, without an election certificate. That would presumably spark a debate in the U.S. Senate over whether the seat is vacant and touch off Lord only knows what kind of a political struggle between Washington D.C. and St. Paul.

In short: even a recount might theoretically leave this year's Senate race unfinished.

One of the "override six" defeated

Posted at 11:22 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom (2 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: MN Legislature

Tom Weber reports that Ron Erhardt, one of the "override six" now running as an independent, has been defeated in district 41A.

Republican Keith Downey is projected to defeat Erhardt and DFL challenger Kevin Staunton.

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John Kline's victory speech

Posted at 10:31 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD2

Tonight, Republican Rep. John Kline defeated DFL challenger Steve Sarvi.

You can listen to his victory speech here:

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Another DFL pickup in the MN House

Posted at 10:26 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: MN Legislature

Reporter Tom Weber tells us that DFLer Kory Kath has defeated Republican Owatonna Mayor Tom Kuntz. This was Republican Rep. Connie Ruth's seat.

Obama wins

Posted at 10:03 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: President

Barack Obama will be the 44th president of the United States of America. The AP, CNN and others have called the election for Sen. Barack Obama.

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Studying the parties on election night

Posted at 9:52 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008

MPR reporter Toni Randolph sends along this report from the MN GOP's party in Bloomington:

One of the people at the Republican's election night headquarters at the Sheraton Hotel in Bloomington was 18-year-old Brendan Grant. He voted in his first election today -- and he voted for Democrat Barack Obama. Grant admitted he felt a little awkward on GOP turf, but he was there by invitation -- the GOP invited his political science class at Carelton College to its election night festivities. He and some of his Democratic-leaning classmates said the visit was enlightening and it will help with their education.

The class is visiting GOP headquarters for about an hour before moving on to the Democratic headquarters. But while the students were there, they picked up some swag -- fake hockey pucks with Sarah Palin's picture and the words "Minnesota's WILD about Sarah." Grant smiled as he stuffed one in his pocket. "To be completely honest, I don't really like Sarah Palin as a politician, but I think she has been absolutely fantastic as entertainment." Grant suggested that Republicans add collars for pit bulls and lipstick to its grab bag.

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MN House race update

Posted at 9:35 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: MN Legislature

Each party manages to flip an open seat.

DFL candidate Jerry Newton defeats Jake Cimenski in district 49B. This was Kathy Tinglestad's district, one of the "override six."

In district 51A, Republican Tim Sanders defeats DFLer Shawn Hamilton. DFL incumbent Rep. Scott Kranz did not seek re-election.

Ellison and McCollum re-elected

Posted at 9:07 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD4, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD5

The AP has called the races in Minnesota's 4th and 5th Congressional Districts. DFL Reps. Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison are projected to retain their seats.

Watching the returns

Posted at 8:50 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Reporter Tom Weber is stationed at the Capitol building in St. Paul tonight. He sends along this shot from the DFL "war room." He writes:

"Staffers for the DFL House caucus pour over computer election results at the State Office Building in St. Paul. The DFL staffers are two floors above where GOP staffers are doing the same."

UPDATE: I should note that they're waiting for legislative results. Tom Weber reports that the DFL is expected to maintain a majority in the state house. We're now waiting to see whether or not they'll win 90 seats, which would give the DFL a veto-proof supermajority.

dfl war room.jpg

Upset in North Carolina

Posted at 8:22 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

The AP is projecting that Kay Hagan will defeat incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Politico has more.

AP calls Minnesota for Obama

Posted at 8:19 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

AP called Minnesota for Obama within minutes of polls closing. Check out the results as they come in.

Polls close in Minnesota

Posted at 7:58 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Polls are now closing across the state after a day of significant, maybe even record, voter turnout. We've been collecting stories from voters all day and we'd like to hear yours, too.

Share your voting story with MPR News.

Wild about Sarah

Posted at 7:22 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Tom Scheck is at the Minnesota Republican Party headquarters at the Sheraton Hotel in Bloomington. He reports that not many people are there yet but there are plenty of foam Sarah Palin hockey pucks available. The self-described hockey mom talked about how proud she was to accept the VP nomination at the home of the Minnesota Wild.

wild about sarah.jpg

A tight race in Kentucky

Posted at 6:56 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Even though Kentucky was called for John McCain shortly after the polls closed, the Senate race there remains tight.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell has a slight lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, with 21% of precincts reporting. Meanwhile, McCain is beating Barack Obama 57% - 42%. This race will be an interesting one to keep an eye on.

Another round of poll closings

Posted at 5:59 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. And the rest of the polls in Indiana and Kentucky close, after some closing an hour ago.

Results come trickling in

Posted at 5:31 PM on November 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

The first round of east coast polls are closing and two New Hampshire towns are the first to have tallied all their votes.

Since 1948, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location have opened their polls at midnight on Election Day. With a combined population of 115, they generally get every eligible voter to the polls. This year, the two towns cast a total of 32 votes for Barack Obama, 16 for John McCain and two write-in votes for Ron Paul.

And if you haven't seen it yet, check out MPR's election results page. You can see results in every state, track U.S. House and Senate Races, as well as see the breakdowns by county.

Daily Digest: 10-1-08

Posted at 9:33 AM on October 1, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Daily Digest

Barack Obama will campaign in La Crosse, Wisconsin this morning. It's a critical battleground state (states if you include Minnesota and Iowa) for Obama and McCain.

Obama, McCain and Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden will head back to Washington DC to vote on the financial bailout package. The Senate has scheduled a vote for today.

McCain also says that inaction is not an option.

Politico says a nervous GOP is urging McCain to attack. An aide says the McCain campaign is on offense in Minnesota and other states.

The stock market stormed back after speculation increased that a bill will pass. The credit market, however, is still tight.

McCain's economic adviser appeared on MPR's Midmorning.

AP takes a look at an actuarial company report that says McCain has a one in four chance of surviving a second term.

2008 Race for Senate

The Hill says Democrats (like Al Franken) are hitting the GOP on social security.

CQ says Minnesota leans Republican.

Former Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry gives the DSCC $1 million to help his party get to 60 seats. Franken is a beneficiary.

News-Max takes a look at the race.

2008 Race for Congress

GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann, DFLer Elwyn Tinklenberg and I-P candidate Bob Anderson will debate the issues in Stillwater tonight.

Thursday's debate in the 1st has been postponed because the House is back in session.

Stu Rothenberg drops Minnesota's 1st Congressional District from his competitive list.

Erik Paulsen's campaign hits Ashwin Madia for not having kids or a mortgage. Question: If Paulsen believes it, why isn't he saying it?

2008 Other

Minnesota breaks its all time voter registration record.

Congress

DFL Rep. Collin Peterson may play a big role in negotiating a bailout bill. Peterson held a conference call with members of the Ag Committee to talk about an unspecified issue. He told MPR that they have to focus on derivatives.

The GAO says the FAA lacks the legal authority to allow slot auctions for arrival and departure slots for flights. DFL Rep. Jim Oberstar is mentioned.

The Duluth - Twin Cities rail line is on the federal list. Oberstar is mentioned.

GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad is still hopeful Congress will pass mental health legislation.

State Government

The Minnesota gas tax goes up three cents today.

Gov. Pawlenty visits Great Britain today as a part of his trade mission.

Health care costs are on the rise in Minnesota and that may be reducing demand. Kare11 and Star Tribune have stories.

The Daily Digest: 9-29-08

Posted at 8:44 AM on September 29, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Daily Digest

The House is expected to vote on $700 billion Wall Street bailout today.

Meanwhile, Citigroup will buy Wachovia.

Sens. McCain and Obama say they will likely support the bailout.

The New York Times looks at the candidates' handling of the financial crisis.

The Wall Street Journal says the candidates are both trying to claim the middle class.

Obama gets a boost from last Friday's debate.

Real Clear Politics looks at reactions to the debate from editorial pages from around the country.

FactCheck.org checks out the candidates' debate answers.

Obama will be in LaCrosse, WI on Wednesday.

Sen. Biden and Gov. Palin are getting ready to debate on Thursday.

Minnesota voters register in record numbers.

2008 Race for U.S. Senate

Sen. Norm Coleman, DFL challenger Al Franken and IP candidate Dean Barkley will debate on Sunday in Rochester.

Coleman and Franken debate Norm's role in oversight of fraud and waste in the rebuilding of Iraq.

Former DFL state Sen. Doug Johnson comes out in support of Sen. Coleman.

2008 Race for U.S. Congress

A volunteer for DFL candidate Ashwin Madia was caught removing signs for his Republican opponent Erik Paulsen.

Madia appears at the Indus Entrepreneurs gala dinner.

Congressional candidates Paulsen and Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg weigh in on the bailout.

The St. Cloud Times looks at Tinklenberg's candidacy.

DFL Rep. Tim Walz hits Republican opponent Brian Davis on Social Security.

Rochester donors prefer Coleman and Walz.

Congress

Most of Minnesota's congressional delegation will support the bailout.

Rep. Michele Bachmann defends a comment placing some blame for the current crisis on housing programs for minorities.

Rep. Keith Ellison writes an editorial on the rescue plan.

Congress approves the Great Lakes cleanup bill.

State Government

The fate of the Clean Water Legacy program is unclear.

Minnesota will get nearly $58 million of federal dollars to help with foreclosures.

Game warden resigns from the MN Dept. of Natural Resources.

Bus and train fares will go up on Wednesday.

The smoking ban celebrates its first anniversary this week.

The debate is on

Posted at 10:38 AM on September 26, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: President

In spite of a vow to skip the debate until a Wall Street bailout deal was reached, U.S. Sen. John McCain will be heading to Mississippi for the first presidential debate tonight.

McCain originally had said he suspend his campaign until "the crisis has been resolved."

An aide to McCain later told Reuters that, "If the package is reached and the country is saved, there will be a debate."

McCain is debating tonight -- so, is the country saved? Here is the campaign's statement (emphasis added):

John McCain's decision to suspend his campaign was made in the hopes that politics could be set aside to address our economic crisis.

In response, Americans saw a familiar spectacle in Washington. At a moment of crisis that threatened the economic security of American families, Washington played the blame game rather than work together to find a solution that would avert a collapse of financial markets without squandering hundreds of billions of taxpayers' money to bailout bankers and brokers who bet their fortunes on unsafe lending practices.

Both parties in both houses of Congress and the administration needed to come together to find a solution that would deserve the trust of the American people. And while there were attempts to do that, much of yesterday was spent fighting over who would get the credit for a deal and who would get the blame for failure. There was no deal or offer yesterday that had a majority of support in Congress. There was no deal yesterday that included adequate protections for the taxpayers. It is not enough to cut deals behind closed doors and then try to force it on the rest of Congress -- especially when it amounts to thousands of dollars for every American family.

The difference between Barack Obama and John McCain was apparent during the White House meeting yesterday where Barack Obama's priority was political posturing in his opening monologue defending the package as it stands. John McCain listened to all sides so he could help focus the debate on finding a bipartisan resolution that is in the interest of taxpayers and homeowners. The Democratic interests stood together in opposition to an agreement that would accommodate additional taxpayer protections.

Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.

Franken hits Coleman on bailout comments

Posted at 1:32 PM on September 23, 2008 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008

From MPR's Mark Zdechlik:

DFL Senate candidate Al Franken is calling on Republican Senator Norm Coleman to explain comments Coleman reportedly made over the weekend suggesting the proposed financial institution bailout could earn the U.S. money. According to a Sunday Mankato Free Press report, Coleman said:

"The government could make 10 or 20 times what it pays on this, possibly."

In a conference call with reporters on Tuesday morning, Franken said Coleman needs to explain the economics of how the bailout could be a money maker.

"When I talk to Minnesotans I am not hearing a lot of excitement about what a great pay out this investment is going to have," Franken said. "I hear a lot of worry that Washington is taking care of Wall Street but forgetting about Main Street the way it consistently has during the Bush-Coleman ear and frankly I hear a lot of out rage."

Coleman staffers told MPR that the Senator was unavailable to comment on the proposed bailout on Monday and Tuesday morning. Coleman has scheduled a conference call with reporters this afternoon to discuss it.

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The Daily Digest: 9-10-08

Posted at 9:13 AM on September 10, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Daily Digest

2008 Race for U.S. Senate

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, Democrat Al Franken and Dean Barkley of the Independence Party won their parties' primaries last night.

Franken's daughter Thomasin encourages young people to vote on the Iron Range.

Norm Coleman joins the bipartisan "Gang of 16," which is trying to get Congress to compromise on energy.

2008 Race for Congress

Republican Brian Davis defeated state Senator Dick Day in last night's primary. He'll take on Democratic Rep. Tim Walz in MN's 1st Congressional District.

GOP-endorsed candidate Glen Menze defeated Alan Roebke by about 500 votes. Menze will go on to challenge DFL Rep. Collin Peterson in the 7th Congressional District.

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison and Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann comfortably defeated primary challengers, Gregg A. Iverson and Aubrey Immelman.

Republican Erik Paulsen hits the air in the 3rd Congressional District.

For full primary results, visit the Secretary of State's website.

2008 Race for President

Rep. Michele Bachmann and state Rep. Laura Brod are two of the Republican women on the "truth squad" formed to defend Gov. Sarah Palin from attacks.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows Palin energizes voters on both sides.

Four Minnesota business leaders endorse Sen. Barack Obama.

Obama runs this ad on education, while McCain starts running this ad in Minnesota.

The New York Times says both candidates have ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lobbyists.

In this fast-paced race, fiction becomes fact before it can be debunked, says the Washington Post.

With Republicans newly energized by the Palin pick, Time reports that the Obama campaign is focusing on its ground game.

And Ralph Nader will be on the ballot in Minnesota.

State Government

State Rep. Neil Peterson of the "Override Six" is defeated in his primary, while Rep. Jim Abeler holds on.

Levies

Ten school ballot questions get approval, while three fail.

2008 RNC

Former U.S. Attorney Tom Heffelfinger has been hired to conduct an independent review of police planning and tactics.

Sheriff Bob Fletcher defends his department's handling of jailed protesters.


Bridges

The I-35W bridge could open as early as Tuesday.

The U.S. Govt's bridge repair program has some problems, says the Government Accountability Office.

And in other news...

Sen. Larry Craig will ask the Minnesota Court of Appeals today to allow him to withdraw his guilty plea.

Pawlenty's speech

Posted at 7:40 PM on September 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

tp at rnc.jpg

Here is Gov. Tim Pawlenty addressing the RNC:

Paulsen's speech

Posted at 6:58 PM on September 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD3

paulsen.jpg

Here is Erik Paulsen, Republican candidate in the 3rd Congressional District race, addressing the RNC:

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Tonight at the X

Posted at 12:40 PM on September 4, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: President, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD3

Erik Paulsen, Republican candidate in MN's 3rd Congressional District, will address the Republican National Convention tonight around 5:30. He'll speak for about five minutes on his reform and pro-growth agenda.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty will also give a short speech around 7 p.m. about Sen. John McCain's life story.

Pawlenty also told WCCO radio that the podium setup inside the Xcel Energy Center is being reworked into the kind of town-hall setting in which McCain is most comfortable.

Norm Coleman's 2nd RNC address

Posted at 6:56 PM on September 3, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. Senate

Sen. Norm Coleman addresses the Republican National Convention again. This time he welcomes "hockey mom" Sarah Palin to the "state of hockey" and talks about how Republicans will help working families.

Listen here:

Davis and Paulsen address the delegates

Posted at 6:43 PM on September 3, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD1, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD3

As I wrote yesterday, the non-incumbent Republicans running for U.S. Congress addressed the Minnesota delegation at their Tuesday breakfast.

Now you can feel like you were there. Here are the speeches from the candidates in the two most competitive races:

Brian Davis (running in the 1st Congressional Distrcict)

and Erik Paulsen (running in the 3rd Congressional District)

Quie, Carlson and Ramstad speak

Posted at 5:40 PM on September 3, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Today, MPR reporter Curtis Gilbert attended a symposium hosted by Growth and Justice, a liberal economic think tank.

The event was billed as "Minnesota's Progressive Republican Tradition: A History of Investing for Real Prosperity" and featured speeches by three moderate Minnesota Republicans: Gov. Al Quie, Gov. Arne Carlson and Rep. Jim Ramstad.

Curtis is working on a story about the event (I'll post the audio when it's available), but for now, here is the full audio of the speeches.

Quie, who was governor from 1979-1983, spoke on love in politics and the need to work together despite differences:

Carlson, governor from 1991-1999, expressed his concern about foreign policy, the growing deficit and the erosion of newspapers:

Nine-term Congressman Ramstad, talked about the need for moderate Republicans to work in a bipartisan way in order to practice common sense politics:

CNN/Time poll: Obama up by 12 in Minnesota

Posted at 3:34 PM on September 3, 2008 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: President

A new poll conducted by CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. shows Obama with a twelve-point lead in Minnesota.

The poll, conducted Aug. 31 - Sept. 2, shows Obama with a twelve point lead over McCain, 53 percent to 41 percent. This compares with the ten point lead that Obama had in last month's MPR News/University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute poll.

The CNN/Time poll also shows Obama with a significant lead in Iowa. 55 percent of those polled said they are supporting Obama while 40 percent are supporting McCain. Notably, Obama is even leading in Iowa's western counties, which George W. Bush easily won in 2004.

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Norm addresses convention as approval ratings slip

Posted at 1:41 PM on September 3, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. Senate

Last night, Sen. Norm Coleman addressed the Republican National Convention, welcoming the delegates to St. Paul.
Update:He'll also be addressing the convention tonight shortly before 6:30.

He's also been using the RNC as an opportunity to do some serious fundraising, as the Washington Post reports.

But at the same time, a new Survey USA poll shows that Coleman's approval ratings are slipping. The survey shows that 44 percent of Minnesotans approve of Coleman, while 51 percent disapprove. This is the highest the disapproval number has been since Survey USA first started tracking Coleman's approval ratings in May 2005.

The life of the party party

Posted at 7:28 PM on September 2, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: President, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD6

I stopped byThe Life of the Party party held by the Republican National Coalition for Life and Chairwoman Phyllis Schlafly. Schlafly is a socially conservative activist best-known for her opposition to feminism and abortion.

The event was being held at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in downtown St. Paul, which is also where the Texas delegation is staying. Fox News was being shown on TVs throughout the lobby, which I found out is not the norm but rather a courtesy for their Republican guests.

codepink.jpgProtesters from Code Pink were outside the hotel greeting those who paid $95 to attend the event.

Gov. Sarah Palin was scheduled to accept the 2008 Life of the Party award at the event before she was chosen as McCain's running mate. She canceled her appearance late last night and while Schlafly did not express unhappiness while addressing the gathering, she expressed it to ABC News.

But the attendees I spoke with didn't seem disappointed -- they just seemed really excited about Palin. She's clearly energized the social conservatives and I saw one man with a hand-made "Vote Sarah" signed taped to his back.

A protester from Code Pink managed to make it inside the hall where the party was being held and got on stage during Schlafly's welcome. After grabbing the mic and starting to say how the "truly pro-life" members of Code Pink welcomed them, a few delegates got up on stage and escorted her off as the rest of the crowd spontaneously started singing "God Bless America."

Conservative radio talk show host Laura Ingraham and Rep. Michele Bachmann also spoke at the event. Gov. Palin's award was accepted on her behalf by Debbie Joslin of the Alaska Republican Party.

And delegates got to enjoy the music of the Twin Cities' very own Barbary Coast Dixieland Show Band.

barbary coast.jpg

Ron Paul's Rally for the Republic

Posted at 2:00 PM on September 2, 2008 by Molly Bloom (2 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Today Rep. Ron Paul held a press conference about his Rally for the Republic that's being held at the Target Center in downtown Minneapolis.

Paul says the rally is going to be positive and will promote the valuable form of republican (small "r") government. Among other values, they support small government, low taxation and protecting the constitution.

He's not urging his delegates to vote for McCain nor is he going to endorse a candidate. Paul is interested in changing the Republican Party from within and he's teaching his supporters how to do so by holding training sessions (that they have to pay for).

Paul says there are 40-50 delegates specifically supporting him but that there are hundreds of delegates who are sympathizers with the movement.

So while he'll have supporters on the floor of the Xcel Energy Center, it is unlikely he'll make an appearance. In what he calls "a bit of a slight," his floor privileges at the RNC have been strictly limited -- he is not allowed to bring along staffers and he must be chaperoned.

The Rally for the Republic continues today featuring speakers such as Tucker Carlson, MN Congressional candidate Barb Davis White and former Gov. Jesse Ventura.

Ventura is scheduled to take the stage at 3:35 and you can watch a live stream of the event at the rally's website.

MPR reporter Curtis Gilbert sent along the audio of the press conference. You can listen here:


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Bachmann and Coleman to speak tonight

Posted at 12:03 PM on September 2, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008, Campaign 2008: U.S. MN CD6, Campaign 2008: U.S. Senate

The RNC has confirmed that Sen. Norm Coleman and Rep. Michele Bachmann will be speaking at the convention tonight.

I will post what times they will be speaking as soon as the schedule is confirmed.

Update: Coleman will take the stage sometime between 7:00-7:30 and will be welcoming the delegates to St. Paul.

Update 2: Bachmann is slated to speak at 7:30, after Coleman.

I must be in the front row

Posted at 6:49 PM on September 1, 2008 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Tom Scheck sends this report in from the Xcel Energy Center:

Minnesota's delegates have a prime spot on the floor for this convention... The candidates (John McCain, Sarah Palin, etc) can look to their right and see Minnesota's 41 delegates in the front row (right next to Kentucky). As we reported last week, swing states, big time donor states, the presidential and VP candidates and the home state get the prime position.

The last time a Republican presidential candidate has won Minneosta has been 1972. Is this the best seat the delegates will see in a while?

Here's the Minnesota delegation in their choice spot:

minnesota delegation.JPG

Franken on Letterman on Tuesday night

Posted at 11:25 AM on March 17, 2008 by Tom Scheck
Filed under: Campaign 2008

Democrat Al Franken's campaign says Franken will be on "The Late Show with David Letterman" on Tuesday night. MPR has a story here. Here's the info from the campaign:

Please tune in to hear Al's thoughts on the economy, the upcoming five-year anniversary of the war in Iraq, and our campaign for change.

(And if you have a friend who never pays attention to politics, please remind them to tune in, as well!)

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The feature examines statements made by Minnesota politicians and checks them for accuracy. Based on data analysis, document reviews and interviews with non-partisan analysts, statements are rated either true, false or inconclusive. PoliGraph is a collaboration between Minnesota Public Radio News and the Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota. More

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