Rasmussen Poll: Gov race a dead heat

Posted at 7:20 AM on September 24, 2010 by Tom Scheck (5 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2010, Campaign 2010: Minnesota Governor

A new poll released by Rasmussen Reports shows Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer in a dead heat. The poll, taken on September 22nd, shows Emmer with the support of 42 percent of those polled. Dayton has the support of 41 percent of those polled. The Independence Party's Tom Horner received nine percent support. Two percent of those polled are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. (Note: The poll includes leaners).

Update: A closer look at the poll shows a different set of numbers when you take away the leaners. Emmer edges Dayton 36% to 34%, and Horner receives the support of 18 percent of those polled.

You can read the full results here.

Comments (5)

Do you know how this poll was conducted? I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of polling that is landline only since so many people in our country (especially those under the age of 30) do not own landline phones.

Posted by Jennifer | September 24, 2010 9:52 AM

Jenn, you did well getting the talking point down verbatim. We got it, liberals hate Rassmussen. (And love the first post on your blog. Must be a huge Emily's List, Planned Parenthood, NARAL, Pro-abortion supporter. Resistance is futile! If you disagree and don't believe an innocent life is worth protecting.... LOL )

More importantly to the poll numbers and what this snapshot shows us.

Horner doesn't have a chance at winning, he is pulling more from Dayton, and if given a second choice, his numbers go down. I'd love to know what they asked as their followup question to cut Horner's support in half.

Posted by AAA | September 24, 2010 10:12 AM

Jennifer, rasmussen methodology is described here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

Its an automated poll, they don't specify, but likely of landlines only.

worth noting: Rasmussen uses proprietary formulae for 'weighting' the sample. As they explain, the demographics of who answers the phone (and who has a landline) does not match the demographics of the population. The same holds true for their 'likely voter' screen - how they screen the sample to determine who is really 'likely' to vote is unknown.

AAA - they didn't have a followup question, they excluded 'leaners', as Tom explains; it is also explained in the report to which he links. A different way to describe this is as 'soft' support. They do have another question targetting strength of support - asking how sure the respondents are of their vote. Scores for absolutely sure are: Dayton 59% of support; Emmer 53%; Horner 54%. That 53 for Emmer should be worrisome to the campaign; in my opinion it demonstrates how moderate repubs/ independents who would support a moderate Republican find Emmer a touch too conservative.

Posted by bsimon | September 24, 2010 10:30 AM

bsimon,
Thank you. It was an actual question. (I always look at polling methodology to make sure I understand the poll.) And I greatly appreciate someone actually answering me rather than attacking me and making (inaccurate) judgement calls about who I am and what I must believe.

Posted by Jennifer | September 24, 2010 8:01 PM

Who in the h*ll still wastes money on a land line? The only people I can think of are my parents and a couple friends and family over age 35.

Posted by pinkpoodle79 | September 25, 2010 10:41 AM

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