Capitol View: September 24, 2010 Archive

Rasmussen Poll: Gov race a dead heat

Posted at 7:20 AM on September 24, 2010 by Tom Scheck (5 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2010, Campaign 2010: Minnesota Governor

A new poll released by Rasmussen Reports shows Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer in a dead heat. The poll, taken on September 22nd, shows Emmer with the support of 42 percent of those polled. Dayton has the support of 41 percent of those polled. The Independence Party's Tom Horner received nine percent support. Two percent of those polled are undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. (Note: The poll includes leaners).

Update: A closer look at the poll shows a different set of numbers when you take away the leaners. Emmer edges Dayton 36% to 34%, and Horner receives the support of 18 percent of those polled.

You can read the full results here.

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PoliGraph: Emmer wrong on LGA

Posted at 1:00 PM on September 24, 2010 by Catharine Richert (9 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2010, Campaign 2010: Minnesota Governor, PoliGraph

If Republican Tom Emmer's elected governor, he says he'll restructure the way the state parcels out money to cities to eliminate what he says has been wasteful spending in the local government aid program.

To help sell his platform, Emmer frequently points out that aid isn't spread evenly among Minnesota communities.

"I don't know how many of your viewers understand that only about half the cities in this state get any local government aid and frankly only a handful get the lion's share," he said during a debate Sept. 17, 2010.

It's a claim that he reiterated during a debate in St. Cloud Sept. 21, and that appears on part of his campaign website called EmmerTruth, meant to refute misinformation about the platform.

There's little truth to this Emmer claim.

The Evidence

Emmer's campaign said it could not back-up his claim that only half the cities in the state get aid. In fact, most do. This year, 85 percent of communities - or 727 out of 854 communities -- will get local government aid after unallotment cuts, according to data supplied by the Minnesota State Legislature House Research Department, which tracks these payments annually.

Emmer's second point, that a handful of communities get the most money, is more complicated. This year, the state will give out $426,535,440 in local government aid. Nearly half of that - about $200 million - goes to 14 cities, including Duluth, Minneapolis, St. Cloud, St. Paul, and Winona.

However, Emmer's statement glosses over some important context. Local Government Aid was created to help towns with limited tax bases provide services to its residents. Funding is doled out based on a city's fiscal needs and its ability to pay for them, as well as other factors, including population. So on one hand, it makes sense that large cities, like St. Paul or Minneapolis, would be getting a lot of money.

But dollar amounts don't reveal much. To really understand how the state is spending the cash, it makes more sense to look at aid per capita. By this measure, some of the state's smallest towns are getting the most money per person. For instance, Leonidas, population 57, got $35,240 this year, which breaks down to about $618 per person. By comparison, Minneapolis, population 390,000, got $63,986,731 in local government aid - or about $164 per person.

The Verdict

Emmer's claim is fraught with inaccuracies. He's wrong that only half of Minnesota communities are getting aid. It's far more than that. And while Minneapolis and St. Paul come out on top in terms of dollars of aid, it's the smallest cities in the state that are getting the most aid per person - precisely the aim of the local government aid program.

This claim is false.

Sources

The UpTake, transcript of the TPT Almanac debate, Sept. 17, 2010

Emmer for Governor, EmmerTruth: Tom Emmer Wants to Reform, Not Eliminate, Local Government Aid, accessed Sept. 23, 2010

Minnesota Public Radio News, City officials gloomily expect cuts to local government aid, by Dan Olson, Sept. 17, 2010

Minnesota2020, Phony LGA Statistics at AARP Debate, by Jeff Van Wychen, Sept. 21, 2010

Minnesota House Research Department, Governor's December 2008 City Aid and Credit Cuts and Payments, Dec. 19, 2008

Minnesota House Research Department, 2009-2011 LGA certified and paid amounts, after the 2010 session, June 11, 2010

The Minnesota Department of Revenue, Final City Unallotment: 2009, accessed Sept. 23, 2010

The League of Minnesota Cities, Local Government Aid 101: 2009 Distribution & Beyond, updated April 2010

LGA payments by amount

LGA payments by per capita amount

Interview, Carl Kuhl, Emmer for Governor, Sept. 23, 2010

Interview, Lena Gould, Policy Analyst, League of Minnesota Cities

Interview, Jeff Van Wychen, fellow, Minnesota 2020, Sept. 23, 2010

Interview, Pat Dalton, House Research Department, Sept. 23, 2010

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Pawlenty to call special session

Posted at 5:22 PM on September 24, 2010 by Tom Scheck
Filed under: Campaign 2010, MN Legislature, Tim Pawlenty

Governor Pawlenty spent much of the day viewing flood damage and meeting with local officials in Truman, Pine Island and Owatonna. The governor plans to seek federal disaster aid for 34 counties, and will call a one-day special session once the federal damage assessment is completed.

During a conference call with reporters, Pawlenty said he'll meet soon with House and Senate leaders to work out an advance agreement.

"We'll take the legislation from the previous floods and use it for a template and change the numbers and things like that. So, it won't be hard to put the legislation together because we've done this now many times over the last handful of years."

Pawlenty described the flash flooding as a very significant event that requires a federal and state response.