Poll: Coleman has high negatives, a majority don't want Pawlenty to run for president and 2010 gov match-ups

Posted at 10:36 AM on December 23, 2009 by Tom Scheck (2 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2010, Campaign 2010: Minnesota Governor, Pawlenty travel, Tim Pawlenty

Public Policy Polling released some more information from a poll recently taken in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. The poll (which only gauged only those who live in the 6th) found that former Republican Senator Norm Coleman has high unfavorables, even in the GOP leaning district:

Even in Minnesota's most Republican district, more voters (42%) have an unfavorable than favorable (41%) opinion of him. His statewide numbers are likely to be much more brutal than that. Keep in mind Coleman still leads Mark Dayton and RT Rybak by 13-14 points in the district in hypothetical contests but that's probably got more to do with its GOP leaning nature and Coleman's superior name recognition than anything else. Coleman will have to do some serious rehabilitation of his image if he decides to jump in the race.

The poll found that Coleman leads former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton (DFL) 50% to 36% and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) 49% to 36%.

Republican state Rep. Marty Seifert leads Dayton 40% to 33% and Rybak 40% to 34% in those hypothetical match-ups.

The poll also found that Gov. Pawlenty's approval rate of 52% but about a third want to see Pawlenty run for the White House in 2012.

Minnesotans don't want Tim Pawlenty to run for President in 2012. Even though Pawlenty has a solid 52/39 approval spread in MN-6, only 32% of its voters would like to see him make a bid for the White House to 50% who are opposed. This backs up a Star Tribune poll finding from September that found just 30% of Minnesotans statewide keen on a Pawlenty run.

Here are the full results.

Comments (2)

I had heard from several Republican Party loyalists that Coleman was considered "damaged goods" and had lost the support of the GOP, but I didn't realize the extent of the damage until seeing this poll. It appears as though Coleman is a product that should be pulled from the shelves.

Nothing is worse than a politician who doesn't know when it's over and refuses to retire gracefully. I think Coleman should take a page from former Congressman Jim Ramstad's book when it comes to going out on top; however, after having been defeated by a nonentity like Franken the only thing left for Coleman to do is simply go out.

Posted by Ron Wyatt | December 23, 2009 6:29 PM

Coleman’s numbers should not be surprising considering that 63,203 McCain voters did not vote his re-election … the last straw for hardcore conservative MN-GOPers was his vote for TARP (after not supporting drilling in ANWR, and his stance on immigration, climate, fuel standards and SCHIP legislation.)
The poll data where only 61% of Conservatives gave him a favorable rating, tells him where his problem is. That said, since the independent voters are the ones that have decided the contest, one would think that Coleman would still be viable … but he only got 33% favorable rating from Moderates (with 50% having an unfavorable opinion.) He could recover … but running under the MN-GOP banner may be difficult … actually, the former Democrat turned RINO would do better to seek Jesse Ventura’s Independence Party’s nomination … the IP customarily gets 14% of the MN-Governor vote and a proven name like Coleman could easily split the race giving an IP Coleman the victory.

A couple of things jump out at me.
First, that Marty Seifert is very much unknown … for having been the Minority Leader in the MN House (and therefore on the TV news) that is a surprise. Conservatives viewed him unfavorably (19% to 15% with 66% undecided) and McCain voters were similar (18 % to 14% with 68%). Either MN-GOP voters really want someone else, or he truly is a clean slate. One would have thought his numbers would have been much higher … as he is Minnesota’s Governor-in-waiting … the comment is not in jest as the poll indicates that he would beat both Rybak or Dayton … and notice how many McCain/Conservatives already know enough about Rybak that they don’t like him.
Second, that Mark Dayton may be somewhat forgotten and that should be a concern … the Conservatives don’t like him at 66% unfavorable, but the Moderates are split (32 favorable 35 unfavorable 33 undecided) … for a candidate that has been elected at the statewide and federal levels, that is surprising to see that many undecided. Once the MN-GOP starts reminding voters of Dayton’s performance (those negative commercials) will certainly move that figure. Plus he seems to have a problem with men voters.

It’s too bad that there wasn’t also polling for some of the other leading Democrats --- Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Paul Thiessen, etc.

Posted by Minnesota Central | December 24, 2009 1:03 PM

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