ENPR: A Franken win looks slightly more likely than a Coleman win

Posted at 1:51 PM on December 17, 2008 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

The conservative Evans Novak Political Report is weighing in on Minnesota's Senate race (as is everyone else). The interesting part is that ENPR is projecting a Franken win. (Note: As I've noted with the analysis by 538.com, this analysis and $3.50 will get you a latte) Read it here:

Minnesota: While Minnesota officials proceed on one of the three unsettled issues in the photo-finish race between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and comedian Al Franken (D), other issues remain up in the air.

The Minnesota canvassing board has begun the process of counting approximately 1,500 disputed ballots. These are the ballots which one of the campaigns disagreed with the interpretation by recount officials. Most challenged ballots are the ones which recounters interpreted as going to either Franken or Coleman, and the other candidate objected that the voter's intention was unclear or the vote was illegitimate.

For this reason, it is to Franken's advantage that Coleman has many more challenges outstanding than does Franken. These challenged ballots probably are mostly ballots that a recount official judged as going to Franken, but because of Coleman's challenge, these votes haven't figured into the less than 200-vote lead Coleman held at the end of the recount.

The other outstanding issues are the 133 "missing" votes, which Franken says were lost after Election Day while Coleman claims that if they don't exist now, they can't be counted. These missing or imaginary ballots broke in Franken's favor.

Finally there are the "improperly rejected" absentee ballots-absentee ballots rejected originally by local election officials, who then second-guessed their decision during the recount. Courts are currently deciding the fate of these absentees.

At the moment, a Franken win looks slightly more likely than a Coleman win.

Comments (1)

The phrase "missing or imaginary" strongly suggests that Evans/Novak haven't bothered to familiarize themselves with the details of the case.

Posted by melior | December 17, 2008 3:22 PM

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