Posted at 7:58 AM on October 3, 2008
by Tom Scheck
The latest KSTP/Survey USA poll has Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama by one percentage point. McCain is polling at 47%. Obama is polling at 46%. The poll is within the margin of error so you'll be seeing plenty of Get Out the Vote efforts in the coming weeks. Here's the Survey USA synopsis:
Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain. In Western MN, which abuts the Dakotas, there is movement to McCain. In Northeastern MN, which overhangs Michigan, there is see-sawing back to Obama.
One other factor is the independent vote:
Complicating this analysis is the emergence of a possible protest vote. 12% of Independents, 8% of young voters, 6% of men, 6% of those who almost never go to church, 5% of Conservatives and 5% of Twin Cities voters tell SurveyUSA that they will vote for neither McCain nor Obama, but rather "some other candidate." How much of this protest can be attributed to the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass an economic recovery bill, the day before interviewing for this survey began, is unclear. Ron Paul held his campaign "convention" in Minnesota a month ago. Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are on the ballot in Minnesota. Voters who tell SurveyUSA they are for "some other candidate" also tell SurveyUSA they are likely to change their minds. It is unclear how many actual votes will be siphoned from McCain and/or Obama on Election Day, however, polling results from the Norm Coleman / Al Franken U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, also released today by SurveyUSA, suggest the protest may be non-trivial.
the reason why i am on here because i am studing
Anyone who pays to have polls taken should print and remember the "SurveyUSA" poll taken on 09/30 - 10/01 concerning both John McCain and Norm Coleman. The McCain poll is 19 points stonger than the Star Tribune poll and 12 points better (for McCain) than the CNN/Time poll. It is also 19 points better (for Coleman) than the Star Tribune poll! Many people believe that SurveyUSA is a slave for the Republican Party. These same people believe the Republicans pay their money, tell SurveyUSA what they want, and then wait for the results. We will know if this is true on November 4th!