Polinaut: October 29, 2008 Archive

The Daily Digest: 10-29-08

Posted at 7:10 AM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck
Filed under: Daily Digest

Nearly 3,000 Republicans attended a conservative Talk the Vote rally in Minneapolis last night. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann and others attended.

GOP Sen. Norm Coleman calls on Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens to resign. So does John McCain.

Coleman campaigns again today with Gov. Pawlenty. Democrat Al Franken campaigned with DFL Amy Klobuchar. MPR, WCCO, KARE, Forum Communications and the Rochester Post-Bulletin have stories.

I-P candidate Dean Barkley says he'll start running a TV ad this week.

Franken will hold a news conference this morning to call on hearings on the misuse of bailout funds.

Klobuchar also campaigned in Louisiana.

A new ad slams Coleman on judicial nominations.

The GOP takes out a loan to help Senate candidates like Coleman.

The former president of the Prairie Island Indian community makes the case for Coleman in this op-ed.

6th District

CQ says the 6th is now a No Clear Favorite because of GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann's comments on Hardball.

Bachmann's DFL challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg, talks vet issues in St. Cloud.

MinnPost writes the Michele Bachmann's latest claim is that her DFL opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, broke the law.

The Alliance for a Better Minnesota drops lit in the 6th that rips Bachmann and Coleman.

The Minnesota Independent finds that GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann gave funds linked to a Tom Petters associate to a group tied to Petters.

The St. Cloud Times profiles the 6th.

Stu Rothenberg is ranking the 3rd District and the 6th District as toss-up/tilt Democratic.

3rd District

A KSTP/Survey USA poll shows the race as too close to call.

Human Events profiles the 3rd.

A Colorado Democrat (who is also running for Congress) is helping DFLer Ashwin Madia with some money.

2008 Race for the Courts

MinnPost, MPR and the Star Tribune write about the Supreme Court races. MPR's Midday will take a look at one of the races today.

2008 Race for President

Barack Obama will hold a thirty minute primetime advertisement tonight on network and cable TV.

Obama and John McCain will barnstorm Florida.

Obama's folks pound McCain's health adviser for a calling McCain's health care plan radical and unaffordable. He later said that Obama was distorting his words.

Bill Clinton will hold a rally at the Minneapolis Convention Center on Thursday night.

Obama will campaign in Iowa on Friday.

A new poll says Obama is ahead or tied in eight key states.

McCain says the pundits have been misled and that he'll win.

Gov. Pawlenty said it will be difficult for McCain to win MN.

Newflash! Joe the Plumber backs McCain.

2008 Race for the Legislature

AP and the Star Tribune say House DFLers outraise the House GOP in campaign money. AP and the Star Tribune have stories.

The Pi Press says the House candidates aren't talking about the deficit.

The Pi Press lists 11 competitive House races in the Metro.

Arts and Outdoors Amendment

The Star Tribune writes about the proposal.

Former Vikes Coach Bud Grant and TV personality Ron Schara campaign for the sales tax increase. Forum Communications and the Pi Press have stories.

MPR's Midday will hold a mini-debate on the proposal this morning.

Voting

The Pi Press and KARE say both parties are organizing massive Get Out the Vote campaigns.

Economy

Stocks surge to its second best day ever.

Two Minnesota mines have been idled because of the downturn in the steel market. AP, MPR and the Star Tribune have stories.

Consumer confidence plunges.

Minnesota banks are still willing to lend despite the credit crunch.

Hospitals are reporting a sudden drop in elective procedures.

State Government

New federal regulations on graduation rates have school officials worried.

Sarvi ad rips Kline on bailout

Posted at 10:24 AM on October 29, 2008 by Curtis Gilbert
Filed under: U.S. MN CD2

DFL 2nd District congressional candidate Steve Sarvi is attacking his Republican opponent for supporting the $700 billion financial bailout. But his new TV ad doesn't mention that Sarvi also supported the bailout.

The ad says U.S. Rep. John Kline, R-Minn., "took $783,000 from financial interests, then paid $700 billion to bail them out."

In an Oct. 13 debate, Sarvi said he would have voted for the final bailout bill, too, albeit reluctantly.

"I would have supported the second one," Sarvi said.

Sarvi opposed an earlier draft of the bill, because it "didn't do enough for middle class." Kline voted for both versions of the bailout.

"This is a financial crisis of historic proportions," Kline said, adding that he voted for both bills "grudgingly."

"Nobody likes the idea of giving to anybody $700 billion to spend as he or she sees fit," he said.

Rasmussen: Coleman takes lead

Posted at 2:25 PM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Rasmussen's latest poll shows GOP Sen. Norm Coleman taking the lead in the latest survey. Coleman is getting support from 43% of those polled. Democrat Al Franken is polling at 39%. I-P candidate Dean Barkley is polling at 14%. 4% is still undecided. MOE is +/-4.5%.

Races to watch in the Legislature

Posted at 4:09 PM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck (8 Comments)

We did a story today that took a look at whether the DFL can get to veto-proof majority in the Minnesota House. Don't think it can happen? Have a listen to Gov. Pawlenty at a recent campaign stop in Bemidji. He was there to promote Doug Lindgren (2A) and John Carlson (4A).

Listen

Over the past few months, I've talked with folks who are deeply involved with the races (in other words DFLers and Republicans). I compiled a list to watch after taking a look at the notes from those interviews, reading reports on the races (from the handy dandy Daily Digest and PIM's newsletter) and looking at Campaign Finance reports.

House District 4A - Open seat in Bemidji. Gov. Pawlenty campaigned up there with the hopes of picking up Frank Moe's old seat. DFLer John Persell v. Republican John Carlson

House District 28A - DFL Rep. Sandy Wollschlager represents the seat. Republicans have been active here and think Tim Kelly can win it.

House District 37A - DFL Rep. Shelley Madore v. Republican Tara Mack. Madore won the seat in 2006. It was controlled by Republicans for twenty years before that. The candidates have different views on taxes. The Biz partnership and others have gotten into the race to help Mack.

House District 49B - GOP Rep. Kathy Tingelstad's old seat. DFLers think it will switch. Democrat Jerry Newton v. Republican Jake Cimenski.

House District 31B - No one can say how this race will turn out. It's a rematch from 2006. DFL Rep. Ken Tschumper faces former GOP Rep. Gregg Davids. Some folks don't like how Davids represented the district. Others think Tschumper is too liberal. The DFLer did deliver on flood relief though.

House District 37B - GOP Rep. Dennis Ozment's old seat. DFLers are optimistic that Phil Sterner can pick up this seat especially since they argue GOP candidate Judy Lindsay doesn't fit the district. It didn't help that Ozment, a Republican, called Lindsay an "extremist."

House District 41A - GOP Rep. Ron Erhardt's seat. Triple play time. Erhardt lost the GOP endorsement to Republican Keith Downey. DFLer Kevin Staunton is hoping the two split the GOP vote total and he sneaks in.

House District 51A - GOP say Tm Sanders will pick up the seat since DFLer Shawn Hamilton has had his share of problems. I-P candidate Daniel William Sanders is also in the race.

House District 56B - DFLer Marsha Swails holds the seat. GOP can't understand how Woodbury went blue in 2006 and think Lee Bohlson will win. Swails is popular in the District, however and DFLers are promoting video of a debate that features a few Bohlson botches.

House District 2B - DFLer Brita Sailer took the seat from Republican Doug Lindgren. Lindgren wants it back.

House District 52B - GOP Rep. Matt Dean v. DFLer Kate Christoper. This district is always close (Dean and now State Auditor Rebecca Otto slugged it out a couple of times).

House District 17B - GOP is hopeful that Don Taylor can unseat first term DFLer Jeremy Kalin. DFLers, however, say Kalin is working hard to hold the seat.

House District 41B - GOP Rep. Neil Peterson's old seat. Jan Schneider snatched the GOP endorsement from Peterson after he backed the gas tax increase. They slugged it out in a primary with Schneider winning it. Democrats are trying to portray Schneider as a far right candidate and hope DFLer Paul Rosenthal can pull it off.

House District 50B - DFLer Kate Knuth holds the seat but it's gone back and forth over the last few election cycles. Republicans hope Lori Grivna will get it to swing back.

House District 20B - DFLer Lyle Koenen and Don Swoboda fight for the western MN seat.

House District 40A - Democrat Will Morgan holds the seat. Used to be solid GOP turf but is now purple. GOP hopes Todd Johnson will make it red.

House District 43B - Democrat John Benson represents the Western suburban seat. GOP thinks they can win it back (like every other western suburb seat). Brian Grogan is the Republican candidate.

House District 56A - DFLer Julie Bunn represents the seat. House GOP Minority Leader Mary Seifert thinks she's ripe for an upset and hopes Kathy Lohmer will do it. Business groups, including the Minnesota Business Partnership, consider Bunn a friend, however.

House District 53A - DFL Rep. Paul Gardner beat Phil Krinkie in this seat in 2006. Seifert argued that Krinkie wasn't active enough. They hope John Kappler can deliver.

House District 57A - DFLer Karla Bigham holds the seat. Politics in Minnesota says it's solid DFL. GOP has dropped lit in the district to help Kurt Perkins.

House District 38A - DFLer Sandra Masin holds the seat. Diane Anderson is the GOP candidate. This seat used to be held by GOP Rep. Tim Wilkin.

House District 32B - Kurt Zellers won the seat by 356 votes last time. Major upset if DFLer Lee Carlson can pull it off.

House District 38B - GOP Rep. Lynn Wardlow represents the district. Democrats always say he's going down but it may be a reach since a certain son of a South St. Paul truck driver held the seat before he was elected Governor. DFLers say Wardlow ain't Pawlenty and DFLer Mike Obermueller will win.

House District 43A - GOP Rep. Sarah Anderson holds it. Business groups are spending money in the solid Red district. If she loses, the Dem wave is cresting really really high. Clint Faust is the Democrat.

House District 54A - DFL Rep. Mindy Greiling holds it. GOP says it's his sleeper race because Greiling is spending more time handling education forums outside the district. Major upset if true. Mark Liliberte is the GOP candidate.

House District 57B - GOP Rep. Denny McNamara holds the seat. DFLers say he could go down. Rod Van Vleet is the DFL candidate.

House District 13A - It's an open seat since GOP Rep. Bud Heidgerken is retiring. Solid red district but watch it anyway. GOP Paul Anderson is running against DFLer Bruce Shuck.

Watch the seats in Rochester. It's a swing area and always ripe for upsets.

Question(s) of the Day: What do you think? Did I miss any?

UPDATE:

A knowledgeable GOP insider sends along these races to watch (check out the candidate info here) :

1A -- Lillestol will likely beat first-termer Olin
8B -- Soderstrom may beat Faust in this rematch
11B -- Kircher is a very strong candidate and may upset Otremba
25B -- not that likely but Tim Rud has a shot against Bly
27A -- not likely but Erik Larsen has a shot against Brown
30B -- not likely but Kuisle has a shot against Welti
47B -- longshot but Reinhardt has a chance against Hortman
16A -- Erickson won by less than 500 votes in 2006
35A -- Beard is not a strong campaigner and saw a huge drop in his margin of victory in 2006

Comment on this post

Rasmussen: Obama up by 12 in MN

Posted at 5:32 PM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Rasmussen has a new poll on the race for president in Minnesota. Barack Obama has a 12 point lead over John McCcain.

Obama scales back TV ad buy in Twin Cities.

Posted at 7:45 PM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Barack Obama's campaign has cut $100 thousand in ads that were scheduled to run on WCCO and KARE in the final week of the campaign. It's a sign that Obama is confident that he can win Minnesota. Obama still has ads running but there won't be as many as originally scheduled.

The move comes just days after Obama's GOP rival, John McCain, cut back on his ad spending at Twin Cities TV stations. Governor Pawlenty, who co-chairs the McCain campaign, said earlier this week that it would be difficult for McCain to win the state.

Bachmann spends big.

Posted at 11:44 PM on October 29, 2008 by Tom Scheck

With less than a week to go before Election day, GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann is flooding the airwaves with her ads. A look at KSTP, KARE and WCCO today (I looked at Fox last week as well) shows that Bachmann has dropped $1.4 million in TV ads at those stations.

Bachmann's DFL challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg is spending $667 thousand on ads.

Both of these numbers should grow once we check Fox and cable later this week.

I'm told that both campaigns are still trying to buy more space in the remaining days but there's not too much real estate left.

Interesting tidbit: Bachmann bought time on The Chris Matthews show that runs on Sunday morning. In other words, she's buying ad time on the show that put her in the political pickle in the first place.

Note: Political ads in the Twin Cities has now topped $46 million.