Capitol View: October 24, 2008 Archive

The Fix moves the Senate race up the line

Posted at 8:11 AM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck

It moves up one spot. Here's the synopsis:

6. Minnesota (R): We can't believe we're writing this but comedian Al Franken (D) now has a better than 50-50 shot at winding up in the Senate next January. Sen. Norm Coleman's (R) decision to abandon his negative ads hasn't moved the numbers perceptibly, and it appears as though independent Dean Barkley is taking more votes from Coleman than Franken. Coleman has shown tremendous electoral resiliency in his career, however, so we don't count him out -- ever. An absolutely amazing race that will be studied by political junkies for years to come. (Previous ranking: 7)

Two's company. Three's a crowd!

Posted at 12:08 PM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Independence Party candiate Dean Barkley may not feel so lonely any more. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman criticized him in the last debate. And now the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released this ad that rips both Coleman and Barkley.

The DSCC must be seeing the same polling that shows that support for Barkley is soft (meaning those voters could change their minds before election day).

Tinklenberg and Bachmann spend big in final days.

Posted at 3:20 PM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck

(NOTE I changed headline because one of Bachmann's ads reportedly isn't an apology. The other says her DFL challenger, El Tinklenberg, isn't ready for Congress).

A source at one of the TV stations said Bachman bought another schedule of ads for the remainder of the election season. The source estimated the buy was $211 thousand for the entire market (that's in addition to the ads she's already bought). The source said Bachmann's buyer also expressed interest in spending more money in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Bachmann's DFL challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg, reportedly spent another $436 thousand in ads for the remaining 11 days. (Update: I forgot to mention that Tinklenberg's campaign is reporting that it raised $1.45 million since last Friday).

The arms race in ad buying comes as two polls (MPR/Humphrey Institute and Survey USA) show the 6th District race to be a dead heat.

It isn't an apology ad.

Politico is reporting that GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann has taped an apology ad. The news outlet says the ad will run this afternoon.

Update: Bachmann's campaign manager, Michelle Marston, just called back to say they're putting two ads up tonight. When asked if the campaign is running an apology ad, she said "You'll have to experience them and characterize them for yourself". She would not comment further.

Bachmann rips Tinklenberg, makes personal pitch in ads

Posted at 4:30 PM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck (2 Comments)

I just saw one of GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann's latest ads (I'll post video when I find it).

When El Tinklenberg ran the Department of Transportation, officials called up their cronies and offered them contracts, unbid contracts. The Star Trib said he broke the law and federal authorities called it tainted. And when El was mayor, he supported a plan to increase property taxes by a whopping 24%. El Tinklenberg in Congress? He's just not up to the challenges of today.

Here's the Star Tribune story that the ad is citing.

Bachmann's second ad (sorry Video is choppy) had Bachmann sitting in a living room looking directly into the camera. Here's the text.

"Once again, our nation is at a crossroads and it's a time for choosing. We could embrace government as the answer to our problems or we can choose freedom and liberty. I may not always get my words right but I know that my heart is right because my heart is for you, for your children and for the blessings of liberty to remain for our great country."

(Note: It was incorrectly reported that this as was an apology ad) .

Question of the Day: What do you think of the ads?

Update: Politico is reporting that the NRCC is raising money off of the Bachmann controversy.

Comment on this post

Tivo Alert: Pawlenty on Sunday morning

Posted at 5:57 PM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Gov. Pawlenty will be on Face the Nation on Sunday morning.

The Fix: The 3rd and 6th in play

Posted at 7:22 PM on October 24, 2008 by Tom Scheck (2 Comments)

You knew that already but here's what The Fix House rankings say.

Here's the synopsis of Minnesota's 3rd District race (DFLer Ashwin Madia, Republican Erik Paulsen and I-P candidate David Dillon):

29. Minnesota's 3rd district (R): Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia's grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.

Here's the synopsis of Minnesota's 6th District race (GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann and DFLer Elwyn Tinklenberg):

28. Minnesota's 6th district (R): Note to vulnerable incumbents: Don't go on national TV two weeks before an election. Just don't do it.

Comment on this post