Polinaut: October 10, 2008 Archive

National pundits say Coleman has a fight on his hands

Posted at 6:58 AM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck

CQ and The Washington Post's The Fix both are reporting this morning that GOP Sen. Norm Coleman's reelection is proving more difficult. CQ changed the rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. The Fix kept the race as its 7th most competitive but said Coleman's campaign has faced some challenges in the past few weeks.

Here's the CQ analysis:

• Minnesota Senate (New: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican) The Minnesota contest features idiosyncratic nominees in both major parties. Republican incumbent Coleman is a former Democrat who in 2002 very narrowly defeated former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, who stepped in as a replacement after two-term Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, a liberal icon, died in a plane crash just days before the election. Democratic challenger Franken, a well-known comic, is a longtime liberal activist making his first bid for public office. Throw in an unusually strong third contender in Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley -- briefly an appointed senator following Wellstone's death in 2002 -- and all the ingredients for an unpredictable race were in place.

Even so, the trajectory of the race has had an unusual number of zigs and zags. Franken, a former Saturday Night Live writer/performer and former Air America radio host, nearly saw his campaign implode this summer when critics raised questions about some of his racier writings during his career as a satirist. He also faced some bad publicity about back taxes.

But Coleman also has faced flak over allegations that he got a sweetheart rental deal from a lobbyist for his Washington, D.C., residence, and more recently over whether he had received and failed to report gifts of expensive clothing.
Yet the precipitating event in Coleman's recent slip in polls appears to be his vote in support of the controversial financial industry "bailout" legislation last week. A Rasmussen poll released Thursday found that Franken led Coleman 43 percent to 37 percent while Barkley took 17 percent. A recent poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute at University of Minnesota showed Franken leading Coleman 41 percent to 37 percent, while Barkley got 14 percent.

Third-party candidates often siphon anti-incumbent votes from challengers. But in this race, Barkley is gaining support from both parties because of the unpopularity of Coleman's vote on the bailout measure, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "Republicans are revolting against Coleman," he said.

Jacobs said that Barkley's performance in polling also indicates voters from both parties are looking for alternatives. "It reflects both the high unfavorables for both Coleman and Franken and the defections of both independents and Democrats and Republicans from their headliners," he said.

Here's what the Fix says:

7. Minnesota (R): The last 14 days have not been kind to Sen. Norm Coleman. Just when it looked like he was building a small but significant edge over comedian Al Franken (D), the economic crisis hit -- bringing the race back to dead even. And now Coleman is caught up in allegations over whether or not he accepted suits from a contributor -- a controversy that caused, perhaps, the most awkward press conference in the history of politics earlier this week. Independent candidate Dean Barkley remains the x-factor in the contest; he is gaining support by the day but who does his rise hurt more? (Previous ranking: 7)

Barkley on Midday

Posted at 7:09 AM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Independence Party member Dean Barkley will be on MPR's Midday today at 11. Barkley is running for the U.S. Senate against GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and DFLer Al Franken.

The Daily Digest: 10-10-08

Posted at 7:13 AM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)
Filed under: Daily Digest

Stock markets worldwide are plummeting.

A new poll says Minnesotans are worried about the economy.

Minnesota releases its quarterly economic update today and no one is expecting good news. Candidates for the Minnesota House may have to temper promises with a dose of financial reality.

President Bush plans a statement on the economy.

Will John McCain focus primarily on the economy at his town hall forum in Lakeville today?

AP says McCain and Obama are buying plenty of ad time in Minnesota which signals that the state is a battleground.

The Wall Street Journal says McCain campaign officials are weighing how negative to get.

Michelle Obama will campaign in the Twin Cities and Rochester on Monday.

The Star Tribune says black voters are being mobilized to vote for Obama.

McCain says new money could be involved in the mortgage plan.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin faces the troopergate report today.

Gov. Pawlenty appears on ABC's This Week on Sunday.

2008 Race for Senate

CQ changes its rating in the Minnesota Senate race to No Clear Favorite.

The Fix says the Senate race is a dead heat.

Coleman will hold a media availability this morning to discuss the economy and the economic stabilization act. Will he address the suit issue?

GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and several other DFL and GOP politicians are getting rid of their donations from Tom Petters.

MinnPost provides some perspective on the clothing debate.

I-P candidate Dean Barkley will be on MPR's Midday at 11.

WCCO Reality Checks the Senate ads (and there's plenty to check).

2008 Race for Congress

DFL Rep. Tim Walz and Republican Brian Davis spar off in their first debate. MPR and AP have stories. You can listen to the full debate here.

Forum Communications profiles the race and offers individual profiles of Walz, Davis and I-P candidate Greg Mikkelson.

DFL Rep. Collin Peterson and Republican challenger Glen Menze debated the issues in the 7th. MPR has the story.

3rd District DFLer Ashwin Madia raised $1 million in the last quarter.

House GOP leader John Boehner will campaign for Republican Erik Paulsen next week.

MinnPost says advocates on both sides of the gun issue weigh in on the elections.

2008 Race for the Legislature

Gov. Pawlenty hits the road for Republicans running for the Minnesota House.

Congress

A family endures a long fight to adopt children. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and GOP Rep. John Kline are mentioned.

Coleman was also involved in delivering U.S. citizenship to a woman who just died of cancer.

2008 RNC

St. Paul's insurance policy is paying off as the city faces lawsuits.

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McCain on the radio

Posted at 10:21 AM on October 10, 2008 by Mike Mulcahy

We will broadcast Sen. John McCain's Lakeville town hall meeting at 7 p.m. tonight on MPR's news stations.

Mr. Scheck will be there and will have a report on All Things Considered. Reporter Sea Stachura is also at McCain's rally in La Crosse and will have updates through the day.

On Saturday night at 7 we'll broadcast the second U.S. Senate debate with Norm Coleman, Al Franken and Dean Barkley.

And of course whatever's on the air also streams here on MPR.org, so if you're not near the radio you can tune in that way too.

NRCC cancels another week for Paulsen, cuts back on Bachmann's time too.

Posted at 1:03 PM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck (3 Comments)

The National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled another week of scheduled ad time for Republican candidate Erik Paulsen. The NRCC canceled ad time scheduled to run between October 21st through October 27th at KSTP, WCCO and KARE. That means the NRCC will only run time in the week leading up to the election for Paulsen instead of the three weeks initially reserved.

Paulsen is running for the open seat in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District. DFLer Ashwin Madia and I-P candidate David Dillon are the other candidates in the race (which is one of the most competitive in the country). There are several groups running ads in support of Madia (which rip Paulsen). They are the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Patriot Majority and Health Care America.

The NRCC also canceled time reserved for GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann. That time was scheduled to run between October 20th and October 26th. The NRCC still has time reserved for the final week of the campaign. Bachmann herself is running ads. She reserved nearly $750,000 in ads on WCCO, KARE and KSTP.

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Coleman to cancel negative ads.

Posted at 1:28 PM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck (2 Comments)

GOP Sen. Norm Coleman says he will pull his negative ads and is calling on his supporters to cancel their negative ads as well. Coleman announced the decision at a news conference this morning. He also said he's not attending the McCain campaign event in Lakeville to handle his decision.

Here's the audio from his news conference.

It will be easy for Coleman to take down his negative ads. It may be more difficult to convince his supporters to do the same (especially since this race is a dead heat). A check of the Twin Cities stations show that several groups have reserved ad time to praise Norm/criticize Al Franken. They include the National Federation of Independent Business, Republicans Who Care (a 527), the National Republican Senatorial Committee, A Coalition for a Democratic Workplace (a coalition of business groups), the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Employee Freedom Action Committee (which is opposed to the Employee Free Choice Act).

For the record, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, American Rights at Work, the Alliance for a Better Minnesota are running ads criticizing Coleman and praising Al Franken.

I-P candidate Dean Barkley's campaign issued this statement on Coleman's decision:

"It's great to see Sen. Coleman has realized Minnesotans want something better from their candidates. Let's hope his surrogates in Washington follow his lead.

"Meanwhile, while Sen. Coleman tries his best to un-ring a bell, we'll continue talking with voters about the important issues facing our state and country. They deserve nothing less and we don't need an opinion poll to know that."

-Christopher Truscott,
Barkley campaign spokesman

No word from Franken's campaign yet.

Update: here's statement from Franken's communications director, Andy Barr:

"From the start, our campaign has focused on the change Minnesota needs. And we will continue to focus on our competing views of how our country has gone in the wrong direction, how we can curb the influence of special interests in Washington, and how we can get out of the tough economic situation we're now in.

"Given that this week's polls are clearly showing that Minnesotans are sick of Norm Coleman's campaign of character assassination, today's stunt rings as a cynical ploy designed to change the subject and avoid scrutiny of his own record. It's like an arsonist burning down every house in the village and then asking to be named fire chief.

"It's worth noting that even in his own statement, Norm Coleman makes it clear that he intends to continue attacking Al Franken. But we are proud of the campaign we've run, and we will remain focused on talking about the issues that matter to Minnesota and the change Al Franken wants to bring to Washington."

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Out for blood...

Posted at 6:50 PM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck (4 Comments)

The crowd at John McCain's townhall meeting in Lakeville was, shall we say, a bit partisan. Some called for McCain to fight Obama at next Wednesday's rally. Another woman said she didn't trust him because he was an Arab. Another said they didn't know if they could live in a country that had Barack Obama as its president.

McCain, who has been questioning Obama's character in recent days, was booed when he called Obama a decent and honorable man. Listen to the full town hall here:

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Panel: Palin abused power in firing of trooper.

Posted at 7:36 PM on October 10, 2008 by Tom Scheck

AP has the story.

Dillon, Madia and Paulsen tangle on TPT

Posted at 8:33 PM on October 10, 2008 by Curtis Gilbert
Filed under: U.S. MN CD3

The candidates for Congress in Minnesota's closely contested 3rd District race met for a short but heated debate tonight on Twin Cities Public Television.

Republican Erik Paulsen, DFLer Ashwin Madia and Independence Party candidate David Dillon sparred over the Wall Street bailout, fiscal responsibility and the increasingly negative tone of the race.