Capitol View: August 15, 2008 Archive

The Fix moves Minnesota's Senate race up

Posted at 8:12 AM on August 15, 2008 by Tom Scheck

The Fix moves the Senate race from #10 to #7. Here's the synopsis:

7. Minnesota (R): Comedian Al Franken's (D) campaign has settled down nicely over the past few weeks -- stopping the bleeding and turning toward substance. And, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is going to continue to face questions in the coming months about his housing situation while in Washington. (Previous ranking: 10)

Rasmussen: Presidential race tightening, Pawlenty on ticket could hurt McCain

Posted at 8:21 AM on August 15, 2008 by Tom Scheck

A poll by Rasmussen Reports says Barack Obama's lead has narrowed over John McCain in Minnesota. Obama had a 12 point lead at one point in Minnesota.

He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters. With "leaners" factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)

Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%.

McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points from last month. Among unaffiliated Minnesota voters, the candidates are essentially even.

Obama's 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.

McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.

The poll also found that a third of those polled in Minnesota say they're less likely to vote for McCain if Gov. Pawlenty is on the ticket.

Picking Minnesota's Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.

Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.

Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.

Pawlenty back on top of the VP line

Posted at 2:55 PM on August 15, 2008 by Tom Scheck

The Fix puts Pawlenty back on top of the line in the VP stakes:

1. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw returns to the top of the (final?) Line thanks to the fact that out of all true "Final Four" lists he checks the most boxes. He is pro-life, has been elected twice as governor in a swing Midwestern state and has a personal friendship with McCain. Is it enough? (Previous ranking: 2)

The Fix also puts Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is on the top of Obama's VP list.

Time's Mark Halperin, however, doesn't even have Pawlenty on thie list. He said former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is McCain's head pick and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former PA Gov. Tom Ridge are his heart picks.

Halperin said Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh is Obama's head pick while Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as his heart picks.

The week ahead. What to watch for...

Posted at 5:36 PM on August 15, 2008 by Tom Scheck

Saturday

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain will sit down with Pastor Rick Warren (who wrote The Purpose Driven Life) on Saturday night.

The Warren event will be watched closely since the campaigns are furiously courting the Christian vote. A recent poll says a third of the evangelicals are still undecided.

Warren will interview each candidate separately for about an hour. USA Today says Warren will ask about the presidency and the constitution but will ask personal questions as well. Expect to hear questions about Obama's drug use and McCain's divorce. The Obama leaning Christian group "Matthew 25" will also run this ad during the event. Is it an attempt to raise concerns about McCain's divorce or ease concern about the John Edwards fiasco?

McCain's campaign may also be working to drive a wedge between Obama and the Christian base. Some have suggested that this McCain web ad may be working to court evangelicals by portraying Obama as the antichrist.

CNN and Fox News will air the event live.

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I'm told by Obama and McCain's campaigns that they'll be out in full force this weekend. That means volunteers will be knocking on doors and making phone calls on behalf of the candidates. You're probably on a list or live in a partisan neighborhood if you get a call. Don't worry if you don't get contacted. You will before election day.

Sunday

Governor Pawlenty's VP audition continues. He's scheduled to appear on Face the Nation opposite Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (a VP prospect himself).

It could be considered the "safe pick show" since the chattering class says Pawlenty and Bayh could be the "safe picks" for the two candidates. The Fix and CBS rank Pawlenty #1 on the VP list.

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Democrat Al Franken will speak at the 4th Annual Paul & Sheila Wellstone Dinner in St. Cloud. DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar will be the keynote speaker.

Monday

Gov. Pawlenty will attend two fundraisers in Wisconsin.

Wednesday

Gov. Pawlenty will hold a morning fundraiser for GOP Sen. Norm Coleman. The invite says "Senator Coleman and Governor Pawlenty will lead a discussion on the current political season and provide an update on Senator Coleman's campaign."

Remember to send those fundraising letters and e-mail, etc. to tscheck@mpr.org or fax them to 651 227 5238. Thanks to those who already sent some along.

Thursday

The 3rd District candidates will meet in their first debate. DFLer Ashwin Madia, Republican Erik Paulsen and I-P member David Dillon will debate the issues.

Have a nice weekend!