Posted at 8:12 AM on August 15, 2008
by Tom Scheck
The Fix moves the Senate race from #10 to #7. Here's the synopsis:
7. Minnesota (R): Comedian Al Franken's (D) campaign has settled down nicely over the past few weeks -- stopping the bleeding and turning toward substance. And, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is going to continue to face questions in the coming months about his housing situation while in Washington. (Previous ranking: 10)
Posted at 8:21 AM on August 15, 2008
by Tom Scheck
A poll by Rasmussen Reports says Barack Obama's lead has narrowed over John McCain in Minnesota. Obama had a 12 point lead at one point in Minnesota.
He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters. With "leaners" factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)
Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%.
McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points from last month. Among unaffiliated Minnesota voters, the candidates are essentially even.
Obama's 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.
McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.
The poll also found that a third of those polled in Minnesota say they're less likely to vote for McCain if Gov. Pawlenty is on the ticket.
Picking Minnesota's Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.
Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.
Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.
Posted at 9:12 AM on August 15, 2008
by Tom Scheck
Filed under: Daily Digest
The Wall Street Journal says it's Obama's not so good poll day.
Meanwhile, John McCain's campaign held hundreds of house parties across the state and will organizer a major GOTV effort on Saturday.
Obama is also counting on the youth vote in Wisconsin.
Obama's campaign rebuts the book from the Swift Boat author.
Obama and McCain will talk with Rick Warren tomorrow. The Washington Post says young evangelicals aren't 100% behind the GOP.
McCain raised $27 million in July but he has to spend it all this month.
FEC: McCain didn't violate campaign finance laws.
Pawlenty for VP Watch
The Rasmussen Reports poll also examined what Gov. Pawlenty would do to the ticket. It said a third of Minnesota voters say they're less likely to vote for McCain if Gov. Pawlenty is McCain's VP pick. Perhaps it's because of a Gov. Molnau. DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez used the Molnau tactic during a stop in Brainerd.
Pawlenty sighting! He was in Bemidji for a fundraiser for a Minnesota House candidate. He told Bemidji Pioneer that the state could face a $500 million to a $1.5 billion budget deficit.
He also refused to engage in the VP talk.
Pawlenty isn't the only VP candidate on the Sunday shows.
2008 Race for Senate
Rasmussen says GOP Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken are tied in the polls.
The Fix moves Minnesota's Senate race up the line.
The DFL wants the Senate Ethics Committed to investigate whether Coleman violated the Senate gifts ban since he didn't have to pay his utility bills. The Star Tribune has the story.
2008 Race for Congress
U.S. News and World Report takes a look at 3rd District DFLer Ashwin Madia.
2008 Race for Legislature
Senate Republicans reject Mark Olson and say they won't allow him in their caucus if elected. Something to watch for: How much does the Senate GOP Caucus spend on the primary race? Does the MNGOP and others funnel money to the Caucus to defeat Olson? MPR, the Star Tribune, AP, the Pi Press and the Rochester Post-Bulletin have stories.
The state says the 3M contamination has been contained in the East Metro.
The PUC rules against the Excelsior project.
MnDOT Commissioner Tom Sorel talks transportation in St. Cloud.
The stage is unveiled at the RNC site.
The RNC also starts training volunteers.
Reuters says huge protests are expected at both conventions.
Macalaster College says no to camping during the RNC.
Delaware Sen. Joe Biden and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh get to speak on the VP night.
Posted at 2:55 PM on August 15, 2008
by Tom Scheck
The Fix puts Pawlenty back on top of the line in the VP stakes:
1. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw returns to the top of the (final?) Line thanks to the fact that out of all true "Final Four" lists he checks the most boxes. He is pro-life, has been elected twice as governor in a swing Midwestern state and has a personal friendship with McCain. Is it enough? (Previous ranking: 2)
The Fix also puts Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is on the top of Obama's VP list.
Time's Mark Halperin, however, doesn't even have Pawlenty on thie list. He said former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is McCain's head pick and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former PA Gov. Tom Ridge are his heart picks.
Halperin said Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh is Obama's head pick while Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius as his heart picks.
Posted at 5:36 PM on August 15, 2008
by Tom Scheck
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain will sit down with Pastor Rick Warren (who wrote The Purpose Driven Life) on Saturday night.
The Warren event will be watched closely since the campaigns are furiously courting the Christian vote. A recent poll says a third of the evangelicals are still undecided.
Warren will interview each candidate separately for about an hour. USA Today says Warren will ask about the presidency and the constitution but will ask personal questions as well. Expect to hear questions about Obama's drug use and McCain's divorce. The Obama leaning Christian group "Matthew 25" will also run this ad during the event. Is it an attempt to raise concerns about McCain's divorce or ease concern about the John Edwards fiasco?
McCain's campaign may also be working to drive a wedge between Obama and the Christian base. Some have suggested that this McCain web ad may be working to court evangelicals by portraying Obama as the antichrist.
CNN and Fox News will air the event live.
I'm told by Obama and McCain's campaigns that they'll be out in full force this weekend. That means volunteers will be knocking on doors and making phone calls on behalf of the candidates. You're probably on a list or live in a partisan neighborhood if you get a call. Don't worry if you don't get contacted. You will before election day.
Governor Pawlenty's VP audition continues. He's scheduled to appear on Face the Nation opposite Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (a VP prospect himself).
Democrat Al Franken will speak at the 4th Annual Paul & Sheila Wellstone Dinner in St. Cloud. DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar will be the keynote speaker.
Gov. Pawlenty will attend two fundraisers in Wisconsin.
Gov. Pawlenty will hold a morning fundraiser for GOP Sen. Norm Coleman. The invite says "Senator Coleman and Governor Pawlenty will lead a discussion on the current political season and provide an update on Senator Coleman's campaign."
Remember to send those fundraising letters and e-mail, etc. to firstname.lastname@example.org or fax them to 651 227 5238. Thanks to those who already sent some along.
The 3rd District candidates will meet in their first debate. DFLer Ashwin Madia, Republican Erik Paulsen and I-P member David Dillon will debate the issues.
Have a nice weekend!