Sabato: 3rd a Toss-up. 1st is competitive

Posted at 10:37 AM on June 12, 2008 by Tom Scheck (3 Comments)

University of Virginia Political Science professor Larry Sabato is out with his latest House rankings. He says Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District is a Toss-up. That race features GOP endorsed Erik Paulsen, DFL endorsed Ashwin Madia and I-P endorsed David Dillon.

Sabato also says Minnesota's 1st District is Likely Democratic. DFL Rep. Tim Walz is running for reelection in the 1st. He will face either GOP endorsed Brian Davis or Republican Dick Day (who is challenging Davis in the September primary).

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Comments (3)

Looking over my archives, I learned that last year around this time, Sabato placed Walz on his "Freshmen Fifteen" list of potentially "endangered" first-term legislators.

This new ranking is a shift from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic" and MN-01 is thus considered less competitive than a year ago.

However, since Sabato had Gutknecht winning in his final prediction for the 2006 race, I tend to take what Sabato says about rural Minnesota with a grain of salt. Walz and his supporters are going to have to work hard.

Posted by Ollie Ox | June 12, 2008 12:03 PM

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Tom - I did not see MN6 mentioned anywhere in Sabato's rankings. I only saw mention of CD3 and CD1. Where are you getting your info that Sabato thinks the 6th is competitive?

Posted by Mod Dem | June 12, 2008 12:49 PM

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Can anyone tell I need some time off (which is coming tomorrow.)? I thought I saw the 6th on there but it was the Missouri 6th not the Minnesota 6th. Missouri - Minnesota - same thing from a kid from PA.

I corrected.

Two friggin' errors on consecutive days.

sorry and sheesh.

Posted by tom scheck | June 12, 2008 12:56 PM

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