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Sabato: Minnesota's Senate race leans GOP

Posted at 6:15 PM on December 13, 2007 by Tom Scheck (3 Comments)

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato is now rating Minnesota's Senate race as "Leans GOP." In his weekly crystal ball, Sabato writes:

Minnesota: Here's a state that still leans Democratic but overall can be unpredictable politically. Six years ago, Republican Norm Coleman won a narrow victory over former Vice President Walter Mondale (D), the substitute nominee after the tragic death of Senator Paul Wellstone (D) in a plane crash. Coleman is beatable in 2008, but it's far from certain that either of the two likely Democratic nominees, comedian Al Franken or the wealthy Mike Ceresi, can do it. For now, Coleman continues to work his state hard, and we'll call it LEANS REPUBLICAN.

NOTE - Sabato mispelled Mike Ciresi's name above - not me

You can get more background on Minnesota's Senate race here. Sabato rated the race as a "toss-up" in May. Are these rating significant? Will they change over the next eleven months?

Comments (3)

You gotta be careful about this Larry Sabato "crystal ball" stuff. I guess no one follows the races more closely or professionally, but the predictions...

It's not that they're wrong. It's the way he "makes them right," the means he uses to make sure his great record's in tact. I got to understand this when I was watching him predict how the 2006 Minnesota.

He started out calling it for Wetterling. Then, as the race got closer, he started calling it for Bachmann. Then, when there were only few days to go in the race--he kept flipping back and forth (as he should, when new information becomes available.) A few days before the race, he was predicting "Wetterling...no, Bachmann...no, Wetterling--wait--(as the election day arrives) no, it's Bachmann." So the prediction comes out right, on the day of the election.

What I'm saying is that it's not a "crystal ball" in the sense that it's a reliable guide to election results far in advance of the election. I guess no one can do that kind of stuff, and Sabato is as good as they come and his perspective is valuable.

But if you rely on that kind of prediction now, you can get your heart broken. One of the reasons that Sabato's "crystal ball" has such a great track record is that "it changes its mind" so much. Not exactly a "prophetic" source.

Posted by Bill Prendergast | December 14, 2007 12:33 AM

As a retired Minnesotan , that is, someone who used to live in Minnesota, but, now is living elsewhere, I thought I would ask the two Democrats running against the GOP's Norm Coleman for his seat in the US Senate in 2008 : WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU GUYS DOING ?!
WHICH ONE OF YOU GUYS IS THE REAL NOMINEE ?!
THIS COUNTRY IS INVOLVED IN A REAL NATIONAL EMERGENCY ! (It's the "quagmire " thing...'Iraq', I think they call it...). AFTER FARM SUBSIDIES FOR PEOPLE WHO MAKE MORE THAN $75K PER YEAR,WHAT CAN BOTH OF YOU COME UP WITH TO DEFEAT COLEMAN...ON THE ISSUES OF THE DAY ?! (Those Bush Tax Cuts are a good bet...No one has ever gone to war in this country when they LOWERED taxes..!)
RIGHT NOW is high time for the Democrats to define the issues, run on them and conduct the electoral exercise in such a way as to defeat Coleman . Otherwise, we will have more meltdown/breakdown on the National level when it comes to extricating ourselves from Iraq, Raising Taxes to pay for this 'war', preparing the ground for Nat'l Health Care, Paying Down the $9 Trillion Nat'l Debt, Fair Trade vs. 'free' trade (i.e. 'NAFTA') , etc. ,etc. !
WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU GUYS DOING ?!...Find a way to unify the Party real soon, and then go about this thing with the idea of WINNING ! This thing is BIGGER than the both of you AND Norm Coleman put together. Thank You.

Posted by Daniel Wargo | December 14, 2007 11:26 AM

In response to Mr. Wargo's comment, I would like to quote Howard Dean, 1/06/2008:

"Republicans may not know how to govern, but they have made it clear time and again they will do anything to win and hold on to power," said Dean in his party's weekly radio address.
Republican Party practices revolve around an almost obsessive-compulsive focus and fascination on winning. Jack Welch, Lee Iacocca, Vince Lombardi and the undefeated 2007 New England Patriots have nothing on the Republican Party when it comes to winning. Winning really is everything.

That is the problem with the entire Democratic Party, including the Senate race in Minnesota. Democrats do not win races because they lack the intentionality and focus that the Republicans have. Democrats generally put more emphasis on how good they will be in office, what changes they will make once elected.

In any race in any part of the country, show me the Republican party headquarters, and I'll show you a group of people committed to winning at ANY cost using all tactics, legal or otherwise.

Posted by S.L. Case | January 7, 2008 3:13 PM

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