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Is the Democratic race over?

Posted at 3:06 PM on October 16, 2007 by Bob Collins (7 Comments)

It all depends on whether the states leapfrog their primaries to... next week. But the CNN poll out this afternoon shows Hillary Clinton's lead among those surveyed is now 30% over Barack Obama. If that doesn't change by the time primary season starts, the money taps are going to close for everyone else pretty quickly.

On the Republican side, Giuliani continues as the front runner and, when pitted head-to-head, it's a toss-up. As Fred Thompson stumbles, Giuliani is moving toward avoiding saying anything that might disrupt his march to St. Paul. Polinaut expects a steady drumbeat of "I'm the electable one," from here on.

Comments (7)

"Is the Democratic race over?"

God I hope not.

Posted by bsimon | October 16, 2007 3:30 PM

So what your really saying is you would like to see Bloomberg in the election as a third choice. (He might get my vote if he teams up with Ron Paul as VP candidate)

Posted by ILikeBob | October 16, 2007 3:32 PM

I don't know. National polls don't seem to matter as much as state-by-state races, where it's still competitive. I will say, though, that Obama is distant second instead of the close second he was a few months ago.

But he's still got just about as much money as Hilary. Who knows how he'll end up spending it?

I kinda think that the whole 'inevitable' line of thinking isn't really reality, but an argument put forth by the Clinton campaign. A lot of media the media really likes thinking in these terms, but I think that most people's minds could change.

Posted by Johnny | October 16, 2007 3:33 PM

ILikebob: I don't know. I can't get over the governor's race a few years ago when Tim Penny was leading in the Minnesota Poll a few weeks before the election and then as soon as there was some slippage, everybody jumped. The 3rd party vote is just so volatile.

Johnny: I don't think there's anything inevitable in politics (OK, well, I think nothing happening once everyone goes to WAshington is inevitable; put me down for favoring 4-year ocngressional tgerms). But I think it's fair to say a lot of states are going to matter. And a lot depends on how the states behave when it comes to bringing some order to the primary process.

This is, afterall the "money primary" season, but what struck me as interesting in this latest poll is how committed the Hillary supporter is and how strong that support is. Man, if you're not afraid of having X% of your base jump, it makes it a lot easier.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 16, 2007 3:41 PM

I heard, I think it was Terri Traen on KQ, say that the best thing Senator Hillary Clinton could do is stop talking. That anything she could say will only hurt her chances of becoming President. While that might not be best idea, it might not be a bad idea (from a campaign standpoint) to a certain extent.

(Collins: Political Rope-a-dope)

Posted by Brian Hanf | October 16, 2007 4:12 PM

I really like the "time zone" approach to Primary with a few exceptions.

Posted by Brian Hanf | October 16, 2007 4:44 PM

For all the inside politics going on, it is very simple on the Democratic side. If Hillary wins Iowa, then yes, it's over. If not, who knows.

Posted by Ryan | October 16, 2007 6:22 PM

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