A study in contrasts: Giuliani and Clinton

Posted at 5:16 PM on August 23, 2007 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)

Some new Pew research is out:

Sen. Hillary Clinton is by far the most popular presidential candidate among her own party's voters, but has among the lowest overall favorable ratings of the leading candidates. In sharp contrast, the front-running Republican candidate, Rudy Giuliani, evokes relatively modest enthusiasm from the GOP base, but is as broadly popular with all voters as any candidate in either party.

Well, of course, when we're down to just two -- and the way the primary-hopping is going, that could be any minute now -- does anyone really think any significant number of base Republicans are going to vote for anyone but Giuliani and base Democrats are going to vote for anyone but Clinton?

And by November of '08, both will have unfavorables in the stratosphere.

Meanwhile, Congress' approval ratings are lower than President Bush's, which must be easy to do since it's been doing it regardless of who's in Congress.

Comments (3)

Sure looks like it'll be down to two, quickly, unless Fred gets in it, or Hillary gets caught [deleted] an [deleted] goat on tape, which would seem to be vanishingly unlikely. (I don't know that she even cares for goat at dinner.) Failing that, the Democratic race is all over but the announcement of the winner, and ditto for the Republicans.

Posted by Joel Rosenberg | August 24, 2007 8:59 AM

Bob,


I am confused, as to what you are saying.

Of course in the general election GOP members vote for the GOP candidate and the DEM members vote for the DEM.

In the Primary for DEM this report shows is that Clinton has the most favorable among the DEM members. But that for the General election and among the General population she has the lowest favorable.

But in the Primary for GOP, Giuliani has the lowest favorable among the GOP members. But for the General election and among the General population he has the highest favorable.

I think a conclusion is, Clinton has a good shot a winning the DEM endorsement and that Giuliani does not have a good shot at the GOP endorsement. Or if by some way Giuliani gets the GOP endorsement and Clinton gets the endorsement, Giuliani has a better shot at winning the General elections because his favorable is higher.

But remember McCain had, in 2000, very high favorable among the General Public, didn't really help him in the GOP primaries.

Just for smiles here is my guess, as of today, for the party endorsement. Romney for GOP. Clinton for DEM. Also I predict a strong third party (centrist) candidate coming forward.

Posted by Brian Hanf | August 24, 2007 1:20 PM

I've seen speculation that the traditional values set will run their own candidate if Giuliani gets the GOP nod. Of course, there's also a signifcant, and somewhat vocal, subset of the Dem party that claims they won't vote for Sen Clinton.

Indpendant of who has complete support from the base, it looks like if the race is Giuliani v. Clinton, we'll see a pretty down & dirty campaign - from both sides.

Posted by bsimon | August 24, 2007 1:29 PM

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