Why is John McCain in trouble?

Posted at 1:39 PM on July 11, 2007 by Bob Collins (8 Comments)

I don't know.

And there's clearly disagreement in other camps.

Take Truth vs. the Machine, for example. Its take on things is that McCain, in his challenge to religious conservative leaders, alienated conservatives. "Brain dead" is the claim there. What I find interesting there is the "on" again "off" again relationship conservatives have with Mr. Robertson. You remember him, he's the guy who said God caused Ariel Sharon's stroke because of dividing Israel, that God told him there'd be a mass attack on a U.S. city this year. Oh, and don't forget the time God told him President Bush would win an easy re-election in 2004. And he nodded his head when Jerry Falwell blamed the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks on "ACLU, abortionists, feminists, gays, and the People For the American Way" as well as the terrorists.

Not too many Republicans were claiming that Robertson was speaking for them at the time. There was a rush to distance themselves from the guy.

So why now is McCain "challenging" these religious leaders blamed for an obvious lost cause?

They might have gotten it partly right, of course. McCain's position on immigration is certainly anti-conservative. But isn't it more likely, given the political climate right now, that a guy who says "let's send more troops!" to a war that clearly has lost the support of the American people, was probably going to get his clock cleaned? McCain made himself the poster child for the Iraq war. A neat trick, you have to admit.

Perhaps that is, in fact, an example of a brain dead candidate, although it leads to an interesting question of the difference between stupidity and political courage.

There are, of course, other views. Writing today on his blog on NPR, Ken Rudin draws a parallel between McCain's campaign, and that of Edward Muskie in 1972.

McCain's political problems with the war stem not so much from within his party. If anything, it's that he fixed his star to the same guy who ended his hopes in 2000. And with more and more Americans feeling that the war is a lost cause, the result is that McCain's valiant but questionable choice has led many of the independents who found him so appealing seven years ago to turn away from him.

Me? I think McCain was finished the day he sang "Bomb Iran" to a Beach Boys tune.

It was almost as if he was channeling Pat Robertson.

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Comments (8)

Iraq is not why McCain has lost his lustre. His Iraq position is largely the same as those of Giuliani, Romney and the other GOP candidates - except Ron Paul. So, to explain his position in the GOP primary, McCain must be lacking something else. My feeling is that he's not divisive enough. His appeal in 2000 was from moderates/independants, not hard-core GOP voters. There aren't a lot of moderates/independants left that find the GOP appealing. Meanwhile McCain's positions on campaign finance & immigration tick off the hardcore Republicans. Who's left in that party to whom he'd be appealing?

Posted by bsimon | July 11, 2007 3:39 PM

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I remember the morning after Giuliani spoke at the 2004 convention (which I covered). The Minnesota delegates were in love with the guy and clearly lukewarm to McCain.

"What?" I thought. "These family-values folks are embracing a guy who played around on his wife and then announced his divorce in a live news conference BEFORE telling his wife?" Odd.

I'm reminded of that poll a year or so which said McCain played well with general election voters, but not with the party faithful who control the nomination process. While Clinton plays well with the party faithful who control the nomination process, but not as well with the general election voters.

Still, you didn't have to be a party insider to contribute to the guy's campaign. And clearly, few people are.

Posted by Bob Collins | July 11, 2007 4:03 PM

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Bob,

Asking why McCain is doing so poorly with Republicans is a lot like asking why Joe Lieberman did so poorly with Democrats in 2004. While both were great general election material and on a host of issues both men are in the mainstream of their party, the two also came to national promience in part by bashing their base. What's more, both of them seemed to retain such a profile by continuing the behavior - Lieberman on Iraq, McCain on issues like immigration or campaign finance reform.

On Truth v Machine's post, I think Jeff's larger point is that conservatives and many Republicans simply don't trust John McCain to care or even respect their issues given a history that stretches back to 2000. McCain has - until recently - always seemed to relish his relationship with the media (Mike Murphy once joked in 2000 the campaign's constiutency was the media) and coupled with the fact that on almost every piece of legislation that undercuts a conservative principle or effort, McCain's name has ususally been present, the bridge between McCain and the base has long since been burned. What we're seeing down is more likely than not a reality of life, not just politics - once you've lost someone's trust, it's near impossible to get it back.

Posted by John | July 12, 2007 12:21 AM

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IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION

Posted by Lakeville GOP | July 12, 2007 3:22 AM

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Hi, Bob. I think Jeff's point in the post you pillory is that, while many if not most evangelicals think of Robertson as a crazy uncle, he's still THEIR crazy uncle.

For the record, my "brain dead" reference was to the fact that his brain trust had left the campaign on Tuesday.

The Senator's support of the Iraq campaign is probably the only thing that endears him to conservatives right now. As someone who loathes McCain for his stance on immigration, taxes, First Amendment, etc., I was impressed that he returned from Iraq (to a smouldering campaign) and once again defended the surge on the floor of the Senate.

Certainly the McCain swoon cannot be attributed to his courageous stance on the war.

Posted by Gary M. Miller | July 12, 2007 7:38 AM

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Pillory is an inaccurate word. Let's go with "analyze." (g) I don't know the answer to the original question, I accept most every theory out there to some degree. But I don't think I can't say that Iraq had nothing to do with it. People who give money, it seems to me, do so on at least -- partly -- the basis of electability. Can a guy get elected now on the basis of a deeper involvement in Iraq -- courageous or not?

Hard to say what things will look like next summer when folks have to decide such things (or more accurately, I guess, February), but even the rich don't like throwing money at a lost cause.

BTW, I'm sorry I missed Pat Robertson's show yesterday. I'm interested in what he had to say about the Pope's latest declaration on religions other than Catholocism being defective.

Posted by Bob Collins | July 12, 2007 8:27 AM

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"I'm sorry I missed Pat Robertson's show yesterday"?

Wow.

Posted by Gary M. Miller | July 12, 2007 10:11 AM

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I think it was the most underreported story of the day.

Hey, when Louis Farrakhan called Judaism a "gutter religion," the media was all over it.

Also wondering why , if Romney's Mormonism has (for some reason that I can't fathom) been made an issue in the campaign, how, now, can other candidates' Catholicism cannot be made an issue, at least to the pont where someone asks whether they agree with the Pope on this question.

The Pope says *I* have no right to communion?

Given all the garbage that passes as news, *why* isn't that a worthy a topic to discuss. (rhetorical)

Posted by Bob Collins | July 12, 2007 10:18 AM

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