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Poll has DFL candidates picking up ground on Coleman

Posted at 11:11 AM on July 31, 2007 by Tom Scheck (4 Comments)

Survey USA has a poll that says GOP Senator Norm Coleman's lead over two of his potential opponents is shrinking. KSTP-TV (which sponsored the poll) has a story here.

In a head a head with Al Franken, 49% of those polled say they would vote for Coleman if the election were held today. 43% support Franken. 9% are undecided.

In a head to head with Mike Ciresi, Coleman gets 48% to Mike Ciresi's 42%. 11% are undecided.

In a head to head with Jim Cohen, Coleman gets 49% to Jim Cohen's 37%. 14% are undecided. Jim Cohen was not in the race in February.

The poll shows that Coleman still has a lead over both Ciresi and Franken but the margin is shrinking (Jim Cohen was not in the race in February).

Coleman was getting the support from 57% of those polled in a February Survey USA poll between Coleman and Franken.

He also had a wide lead in the same poll over Ciresi.

Remember, polls are just snapshots in time so things can swing dramatically over the next 16 months. But the poll has to concern Coleman's camp and the GOP since no one wants approval ratings below 50%. It may also be one reason why the National Republican Senatorial Campaign has launched this website criticizing Al Franken.

Comments (4)

I would love to see the exact phrasing of the poll, because who in the world knows who Jim Cohen is? I do, but whom else, and I am sure several who read this blog.

If they didn't say "DFL candidate Jim Cohen" in the question, would he still get 37%. I bet his name recognition is under 4%. Where the other two dflers name recognition are most likely in the high 30's, if at least not in the 60's percent.

To me the fact that Jim Cohen matches up only a few points (6) behind the other two says that just about any dfler could have a reasonable chance against Senator Norm Coleman.

Posted by Brian Hanf | July 31, 2007 1:34 PM

Brian:

The questions are: "Minnesota will elect a United States Senator in November, 2008. If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Norm Coleman and DFL candidate Al Franken, who would you vote for?

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for U.S. Senate were Republican Norm Coleman and DFl candidate Mike Ciresi?

What is the only two candidates on the ballot for U.S. Senate were Republican Norm Coleman and DFL candidate Jim Cohen?

You can find the questions here:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

Posted by tom scheck | July 31, 2007 1:41 PM

Well just as I suspected.

But really it was even more flawed, since the Green Party and the Independence Party will field candidates (they always do) those candidates will get between 3-6 percent of total, this poll is flawed.

Historically: 2000 5.81 2002 2.45 2006 3.72
2002 is under 3% but remember that was after the plan crash and funeral of Paul Wellstone. Regardless, the poll does not reconcile what candidate will benefit from or be hurt by their presence?

Posted by Brian Hanf | July 31, 2007 2:09 PM

Al Franken's name ID is higher than Norm's. His negatives are through the roof. That means he is not going to get undecideds. That's why the Washington Democrats continue to recruit and worry that this pick up opportunity is out of reach even though the seat was the number one pick up opportunity after the last elections.

Posted by purpleblogdog | August 1, 2007 8:38 AM

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