The MPR Senate poll

Posted at 3:00 AM on November 2, 2006 by Bob Collins (14 Comments)

Drat. I was all set to put some nifty charts together to show how this race is going nowhere when I realized that MPR has only done two polls on this race -- one this morning and one a month ago.

I generally don't compare one poll to another, so while you might hear someone hold up an MPR poll and someone hold up, say, a Rasmussen poll and shout, "hey, look at the swing !",well, even I know that's just bad science. Or math. Or... whatever.

Mark Kennedy has pretty much been stuck where he is since I started watching the race with some vigor in January.... somewhere around 39 to 41% in most polls. Now, there are polls showing him closer than the 10% the MPR-Pioneer Press poll shows today. And there are a few showing him further behind than that. But there aren't many I can find that show much movement for any candidate.

This is the first one I've seen that shows some vitality for Kennedy. Kennedy's favorables are up by 6% and he's closed the gap from 15% to 10%. And while I'm tempted to point out that that figure is closer in line with some other recent polls, I recognize that that's just bad math... or science...or whatever.

One of the glaring items in these numbers -- aside from the fact that Klobuchar has dropped 5 percent -- is that 9-percent of those surveyed who identified themselves as Republicans, say they're likely to vote for Klobuchar. That's down from 14-percent a month ago. Both numbers seem high, compared to previous elections. I don't know if they're right or wrong -- when you break a survey of 625 people down this far, you're likely to get wider swings.

But, think negative ads don't work? Think again. Klobuchar's negatives rose from 19 to 30%, and Kennedy's went from 32 to 45%.

Iraq is still the #1 issue in this race... it's up from 21% to 23% and just doing the armchair quarterbacking here, I'd have to say that everything that Kennedy has done in the last month, it's largely because of "the ad;" the one about Iraq.

So I was surprised the other night to see another ad with Kennedy on someone's porch, talking about the economy. Maybe the poll tells us why. It says the economy is considered "most important" by 9% of those surveyed; up from 5%.

Let's see.... 4% jump in the economy... 2% jump in Iraq...that's 6%...and the gap closes by 5%.

So what's left to gnaw on in the last days of the campaign? Ladies and gentlemen: meet "moral issues/family values." The last time you saw it -- in the poll a month ago -- only 4% thought it "most important." Today, it's 10%. Ten percent!!!

And health care too. It's jumped up by about 4-5%.

None of these increases seems to have come at the expense of any other defined issue. They appear to have come from the "other" category a month ago. Apparently people have decided "other" isn't that important anymore.

Next Tuesday, we'll find out what is.

How's that for a lame "the future remains to be seen" ending to a post?

Comments (14)

Gee, Bob, this is your post from just yesterday when someone asked why you didn't compare a couple of polls in the 6th CD race:

"For the same reason I didn't mention the poll before that, and the poll before that and the poll before that. They've already been mentioned.

If you're asking me to compare the two polls, forget it."

Consistency isn't your strongest suit, Bob. Stick to the Halloween stories.

Posted by Karl | November 2, 2006 7:32 AM

Not only did I not compare two different polls, I went out of my way to point out that I didn't compare two different polls.

Maybe you left an "us" out of your post?

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 7:55 AM

What are you talking about Bob? What do you call this:

"Mark Kennedy has pretty much been stuck where he is since I started watching the race with some vigor in January.... somewhere around 39 to 41% in most polls. Now, there are polls showing him closer than the 10% the MPR-Pioneer Press poll shows today. And there are a few showing him further behind than that. But there aren't many I can find that show much movement for any candidate.

"This is the first one I've seen that shows some vitality for Kennedy. Kennedy's favorables are up by 6% and he's closed the gap from 15% to 10%. And while I'm tempted to point out that that figure is closer in line with some other recent polls, I recognize that that's just bad math... or science...or whatever."

As I've mentioned in other posts--if you spent a fraction of the time on dissecting the lies of candidates that you do mulling over polls and who raised how much, I might call you a political reporter. As it stands, I guess I'd call you a "trendspotter."

Posted by Karl | November 2, 2006 9:01 AM

I call it comparing a poll to the SAME poll a month ago.

BTW, *I* don't even call myself a political reporter, why would I want someone else too?

Trendspotter? Hey, I like that. Thanks.

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 9:11 AM

So why did MPR send a non-political reporter to cover a political debate last night? (See my other post on the debate for my reason for asking).

Posted by Karl | November 2, 2006 9:27 AM

They didn't. MPR didn't assign anyone to the story. BTW, if you wnat to talk about MPR's assignment process, you should be over on the News Grid blog talking to the boss.

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 9:31 AM

Trendspotting? Wasn't that a movie about pollsters on drugs in Edinburgh?

Posted by Jeff | November 2, 2006 9:31 AM

No, Bob, I'm here on the blog YOU run because YOU wrote MPR's story on the debate last night. So MPR just posts whatever any MPR employee happens to send over to the newsroom? I don't understand. Why else would you report on the story if you weren't assigned? Why didn't your story appear here, and a real political reporter write up the debate for MPR's news department?

Posted by Karl | November 2, 2006 10:12 AM

//I'm here on the blog YOU run because YOU wrote MPR's story on the debate last night.

Commenting in a thread about the poll for U.S. Senate. You asked why MPR sent me to Andover. I told you MPR didn't send anyone to Andover.

I can't tell you why MPR makes the assignment decisions they make. I'm not a spokesman for MPR. Go ask someone who knows the answer if you really want one.

The News Grid is run by the guy who makes the decisions and has the answers.

MPR didn't make an assignment to cover the debate. AP didn't cover the debate. The Strib didn't cover the debate. If you want the "why" behind that, you'll have to ask someone else. I don't know.

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 10:27 AM

Seems Karl has something against you personally.

Posted by Tim | November 2, 2006 11:27 AM

No, I have something against someone who changes the subject and avoids the question. First you said no one assigned you to cover the debate. Now you're saying you don't know who assigned you to cover the debate, and that I have to ask someone else? Which is it?

The Andover debate came into this discussion because when discussing that race yesterday, Bob said he never compares polls. Now today, he's comparing polls. I asked why the inconsistency. Bob claims he's not comparing polls. It's obvious he is.

I guess at MPR anybody can cover anything without being assigned to the story and get it posted on their news website. And anyone can say one thing one day, and do the other the next.

Either way, I don't really care why. It would just be nice to see some consistency in your arguments. And some quality in your political reporting.

Posted by Karl | November 2, 2006 12:00 PM

I'll say it again. I have not compared one poll to the other. In fact, I pointed out I was not comparing one poll to the other.

If someone can show me where I indicated movement holding up one poll vs. a separate poll, I'll be glad to listen. Otherwise, it's just noise.

One can only compare the reesults of one poll,with the results of other versions of the SAME poll.

If you got through the original post and didn't understand that, it would only because it was inconvenient for you to do so.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious I'll stipulate to the fact I'm a horrible reporter -- political or otherwise -- am barely worthy of breathing the same air as, well, more worthy people and when I die, my body should be buried with the carcasses of pigs.

I hope I haven't left anything out, but if I have it's only because of my incompetence.

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 2:15 PM

>> First you said no one assigned you to cover the debate. Now you're saying you don't know who assigned you to cover the debate, and that I have to ask someone else? Which is it?

In the interest of fairness, that's not what he said. What he said was, "... I told you MPR didn't send anyone to Andover.

... I can't tell you why MPR makes the assignment decisions they make. I'm not a spokesman for MPR. Go ask someone who knows the answer if you really want one."

In this case, the "assignment decision" they made was the decision not to send anybody to Andover.

If you want to talk about polling, then that's fine. But Bob is being very clear with what happened regarding the Andover debate.

Posted by Nick | November 2, 2006 6:32 PM

Correct, Nick. The original question, I believe, was why did MPR send a non-political reporter to the debate?

The answer I gave was MPR didn't send anyone to the debate. MPR didn't assign anyone to the debate. And no reporter WENT to Andover to the debate.

I don't know why MPR didn't send anyone to the debate. The assignment meeting happens at 9 in the morning. At 9 in the morning, I'm cozying up to a hot bowl of oatmeal in my kitchen.

The last time I was *assigned* to something here was 1992 -- a thoughtful little piece on reaction to Ross Perot pulling out of the presidential race.

It was, true to my ability, horribly written.

Now I suppose one could say that any old monkey could get a story on the MPR Web site and I guess -- since any old monkey did -- you'd be right.

Some country, eh?

Posted by Bob Collins | November 2, 2006 6:49 PM

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