Post election analysis: Winners and Losers

Posted at 6:21 PM on November 13, 2006 by Tom Scheck (5 Comments)

I kept trying to post this last week but my days got away from me. Anyway, Tuesday's election is bringing about some winners and losers. They aren't in any particular order (meaning it's not a ranking system). Here's the list:

Winners

1) Tim Pawlenty on the national level. Pawlenty survived a DFL tsunami that toppled Republicans everywhere. His victory in a purple state that looked awfully blue on Tuesday will get him plenty of attention on the national level. He will also be the chair of the National Governor's Association (look lower for Pawlenty on the state level).

2) Larry Pogemiller - Pogemiller is the next DFL Senate Majority Leader and has the backing of a large group of DFL Senators. Look for the DFL controlled Senate to push the accelerator as House DFLers keep one foot on the brakes and one on the gas for the first couple of months.

3) Michele Bachmann. She won an election touting her conservative credentials. She didn't shy away from fundraisers with President Bush, Vice President Cheney and Karl Rove. Despite all of that she still won. She better keep running since the Democrats may gun for her in two years.

4) Amy Klobuchar. She won and won big. She gathered up the DFL party faithful early on and started moving to the middle to gain the support of independents and conservatives. She was also brilliant in her decisive handling of a blogger flap that could have spelled trouble for other campaigns.

5) Tim Walz. He defeated an incumbent GOP Congressman. No one really knew who this guy was last year. Now he's headed to Washington. He will probably be targeted by the GOP in two years.

6) Keith Ellison. He survived a brutal DFL primary, criticism from GOP bloggers and the Republican candidate. He also watched as the current DFL Congressman didn't abide by the endorsement and backed another Democrat. That same Congressman (who still represents Ellison's Party) decides against endorsing him after the Primary and allows the Independence Party candidate to post a photo of him on her website. Despite all of this, Ellison cruises to victory without running one tv ad.

7) Dave Senjem - He's now the most powerful Republican in the Minnesota Senate even though few know much about him. Good luck sparring with Pogemiller. I would also add the next House Minority Leader to this spot but we're not sure who it is yet. They vote on Saturday.

8) Margaret Anderson Kelliher - She's the next speaker of the Minnesota House. She also has the backing of a large caucus. That means she can cut some of her caucus loose on controversial legislation.

9) Minneapolis and the Iron Range. Pogemiller and Kelliher represent Minneapolis. Tom Bakk of Cook is the next chair of the Senate Tax Committee and Tony Sertich of Chisholm will be the next House Majority Leader. There is this old joke that former Senate Tax Committee Chair Dougie Johnson thought "L 'Etoile Du Nord" meant send the money north. Bakk and Sertich are Iron Rangers that now hold the purse strings. How do you say "sequel" in French? I should probably add that the Minnesota DFL Party should be chalked up as a winner.

10) Pro-Choice groups - There is now a pro-choice majority in the Minnesota Senate and I'm told it's split in the House. That means they won't have to play defense and have pro-choice lawmakers bury bills out of fear that pro-life amendments could get attached to them.

Losers

1) The MN GOP. They figured out early that it was going to be a tough year for GOP candidates and circled the wagons around Pawlenty. You could chalk it up to a bad year for Republicans but there were too many incumbents on the state and national level who went down (Gil Gutknecht and Bill Belanger for example). Ron Carey replaced Ron Eibensteiner as MN GOP Chair even though Mark Kennedy, Tim Pawlenty, Steve Sviggum and Norm Coleman encouraged the delegates to stick with Eibensteiner. Check out the blog, Residual Forces, to see how happy some conservatives are with the current leadership. That being said, Carey had to play the cards he was dealt. Who thinks Eibensteiner would have done any better?

2) Mike Hatch - The Pawlenty Campaign and the MN GOP were just waiting for a Mike Hatch meltdown. They planted the seeds early with constant news releases and statements saying he was basically a loose cannon. The message finally worked when Hatch started ripping reporters and calling them names. Don't get into a fight with anyone who buys ink by the barrel. He also threw his Lt. Governor candidate under the bus as an explanation for his loss.

3) Conservatives (update I should say every conservative sans Michele Bachmann) - Mark Kennedy, Brian LeClair, Phil Krinkie, Tim Wilkin and Karen Klinzing all lost. One Republican told me on election night that some MN House lawmakers lost because they were more interested in standing against something instead of standing for something. Voting against one education bill and one bonding bill is probably ok but to keep doing it is political suicide. Kennedy didn't vote against too many bills. Instead, he chose early on to run from his conservative record to attract middle of the road voters. The independents didn't buy it and the conservatives weren't happy about his new image.

4) Patty Wetterling - She ran for U.S. Senate and told the media she wouldn't run for Congress again because she couldn't win. She also gives the blessing to El Tinklenberg to run. She drops her Senate bid and decides to run for Congress despite telling Tinklenberg she wouldn't. If she couldn't win this year it's unlikely that she'll ever win in the Conservative Sixth. Does anyone think the race would have been different if the Pro-Life Tinklenberg would have run?

5) Steve Sviggum - Sviggum did a great job of keeping his caucus together over the last two years even though they had a razor thin majority. He's also one of the most honest and open politicians out there. The Democratic tidal wave hurt him but the knock on him was he spent the past two years protecting Governor Pawlenty at the expense of the GOP caucus.

6) Tim Pawlenty on the statewide level. He may be the national darling right now but he only won by 1% of the vote. He also won't have Sviggum and the House GOP to team up with at the end of session budget negotiation. Pawlenty now faces a DFL majority in the Legislature that will double team him. Can anyone say gas tax increase? Statewide smoking ban? A few votes from veto overrides?

7) Dick Day. He lost seats but it was the seats he lost. He blames it on a DFL year but it's the Senate Caucus leader's job to win elections and protect incumbents. They lost 7 GOP incumbents including Cal Larson and Bill Belanger.

8) Dean Johnson. The Senate Majority goes down after being the target of oodles of special interest money. I hesitated to put him on this list but politics is about survivors and he didn't survive.

9) The MCCL and The Minnesota Family Council - They can spin it anyway they want but they lost seats and can now expect little action at the Legislature. They can smile at the fact that they took Dean Johnson out but watched as their key legislative supporters were wiped out in both the House and Senate. Social issues will not be an issue over the next two years.

10) Those nasty tv ads. 'Nuff said here.

Please add to the list or tell me I'm wrong. I'd be interested to see what others think.

Comments (5)

Other post-election losers:

Matt Entenza - Would have been Speaker.

Steve Kelley - Likely would have been Senate Majority Leader.

Posted by minntelect | November 14, 2006 7:59 AM

Here is my reccomendation for Loser:

Rod Grams up in the 8th. He started his race saying he was going to raise $2 million and take out Jim Oberstar. GOP Chair Ron Carey gloated that Grams was a serious candidate who would take out Oberstar.

Grams ran a nasty, negative campaign that was denounced and discredited by 8th district newspapers. Oberstar responded from the high road and stayed focused on the issues.

In the end and embarassed Grams was talking about going into retirement after gettin less than 35% of the vote.
http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/articles/index.cfm?id=28056§ion=None

Posted by Bart | November 14, 2006 8:23 AM

Pawlenty did not win, everyone else lost. He ran a lack-luster campaign and still has never won over a majority of Minnesotans. He has to thank a GOP funded Independence Party for his two terms as Governor. He may have hopes for higher office, but they really should ask him why he would be a good pick when he has not been able to ever win his own state, and as an incumbent only get 47% of the vote, even if you divide up his part of the Hutchinson vote he would not hit 50%. He was given a break from the focus being on the Senate race, both from the blogs and from the energy by the parties and the other groups. People did not take him seriously from any side, and that lack of interest also helped him keep his office. Not something to be proud of for sure.

If all they are looking for is a mediocre pretty face, then maybe he is a good pick for the VP spot, but there is no doubt that is all they will be getting.

Posted by Ag | November 14, 2006 9:56 AM

...and it couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

To list among the losers:

Sixth District Voters. I feel sorry for anyone expecting Michele Bachmann to serve anyone's interests except Michele Bachmann's. The Sixth District has truly gotten the representation that it deserves.

Michele Bachmann: Minnesota's own Kathleen Harris has gone from being a big crazy majority fish in a small pond to being a small crazy minority fish in a huge pond. Welcome to irrelevance, Michele.

Posted by Albatross | November 14, 2006 10:02 AM

Afraid I must disagree with you, Albatross. From Bachmann's point of view, she won big--she's a big time winner, and given the circumstances of the election, she's sitting pretty.

1) Democratic tsunami, cross country, across the state--but Bachmann, a freshman, still won handily. What does that tell us about how she'd do in a year when there isn't any Democratic momentum?

2) If you're a Minnesota conservative looking for a fresh new successful face in Washington, who are you gonna go to besides MB? She's one of the few "no new taxes" conservatives left. Result: slated for GOP/conservative stardom.

3) In the present environment of GOP wreckage, she's not bound to anyone (except the evangelical political movement.) This means she can pursue what ever wedge issues she wants to, without any serious reprisal from her own party. That's ideal for Bachmann, because the wedge issues have made her career.

She's no loser; she won big. Ironically, because the Dems won big---that nut is on the fast track.

Posted by Bill Prendergast | November 14, 2006 1:22 PM

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