Polinaut: November 1, 2006 Archive

Politics in church

Posted at 2:37 AM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

These are the times when I also want to hear the discussion about the role of church in politics.

Meanwhile, MPR's Elizabeth Stawicki has a fine non-political look at how some Evangelical Christians are defining themselves.

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A look at the MPR poll

Posted at 3:00 AM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (8 Comments)

You'll note that the time stamp on this post is 3 a.m. Rest assured, I'm not actually working at 3 a.m., but the MPR poll story on the governor's race is embargoed. I'm actually writing this at 3 p.m. on Tuesday after working on setting up the poll results on the aforementioned page and trying to make sense of these numbers.

They don't make sense. And the reason they don't make sense is the governor's race, as near as I can tell, is defying the usual things I look at in elections.

I'm not a statistics expert, I'm not a political scientist. I'm so unschooled that I have always thought that the popular candidate will win out over the less popular one and that incumbency matters.

That's so yesterday, apparently.

As I've posted here before, my usual antennae do not detect a big problem for Pawlenty. And yet the polls keep showing that he's got a problem and every person I know -- who knows -- says Pawlenty is afraid he's going to lose this election, and he might.

But I'm not sure it's going to be his fault.

The more I look at these numbers, the more I think that if the numbers are right, Pawlenty's caught in some sort of whirlpool that isn't entirely of his doing. Maybe it's an anti-Republican thing. Maybe it's an anti-Iraq thing. What it doesn't necessarily appear to be is an anti-Pawlenty thing.

Check out the job approval ratings that I could dig up from past MPR polls. The percentage indicates the number of people who say he's doing either a good or excellent job as governor.

There's not a huge swing there, and most of it seems to reflect the state budget "crisis."

His numbers now, however, aren't far from the worst numbers Ventura racked in the middle of his term. He was hanging around 52% in February 2000 with a low of 43% shortly before that.

Now let's look at the current poll. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed said Pawlenty is doing a "good" or "excellent" job as governor. That's up 1% from the last survey (statistically insignificant, I guess). But only 42% say they'd vote for him.

Where did that 5% go? Moreover, what does it mean that 5% of the voters won't vote for you, even if they think you're doing a good job. How do you run on that?

The other thing about this poll is that Pawlenty's favorables went up 2% in this survey over a month ago, while Hatch's went up 5%. Peter Hutchinson's went up 2%. Relatively even.

The "unfavorables", however, went up 9% for Hatch, and went up only 4% for Pawlenty. They went up 12% for Hutchinson.

The "neutrals" went down 13% for Hatch, 16% for Pawlenty and went up 4% for Hutchinson.

Hatch's previous "neutrals" went mostly to the "unfavorables." Pawlenty's previous "neutrals" were mostly split between "favorables" and "unfavorables" . But a whole chunk of the former "neutrals" seems to have disappeared -- at least to this untrained eye.

Peter Hutchinson, meanwhile, got a lot of voters to recognize his name, but too many of them decided they didn't like him ... at least based on favorables.

So what does all of this mean?

It means Tim Pawlenty doesn't have Tim Penny to help him get elected this year. Penny pulled 16% of the vote four years ago.

Peter Hutchinson is pulling 4% right now.

It's a two-person race and that apparently is not a good sign for Pawlenty.

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6th District race moving out of "competitive" territory, poll suggests

Posted at 8:24 AM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (23 Comments)

Mike Mulcahy (who returns to Polinaut after Election Day, by the way) passes along the results of the Zogby/Reuters poll in the 6th District.

MINNESOTA 6 - Republican Michele Bachmann expanded her lead

over Democrat Patty Wetterling to 52 percent to 42 percent in

the race to succeed Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running for

senator.

Of the 15 "key" races Zogby surveyed, Democrats are favored in 10 of them and Michele Bachmann is the only one in which a Republican has a double-digit lead.

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Walz dumps Kerry?

Posted at 8:45 AM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (25 Comments)

According to the Mankato Free Press, John Kerry has canceled his participation in a rally in Mankato.

He can't tell a joke, but he can still take the political temperature and his appearing in Minnesota right now is nothing but a huge albatross around any DFL candidate's neck so soon after his gaffe. And I'm sure they know it.

Are you can good at reading between the lines?

Walz communication director Meredith Salsbery said Kerry canceled his visit to keep the focus on the issues and away from Kerry’s comments and McCain’s response.

She wouldn’t comment on whether Walz asked Kerry not to campaign for him, but said the decision was ultimately the senator’s choice.

If Walz didn't ask Kerry to pull out, then a campaign manager answers "no" to that question.

There's certainly a debate on what Kerry said he meant and what others say he meant, but right now John Kerry is radioactive to a candidate in a close race.

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The Daily Digest: 11-1-06

Posted at 10:42 AM on November 1, 2006 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

Let's get right to the action:

Senate race

Democrat Amy Klobuchar maintains a big lead in two polls. Here's the U of M poll results. Here's a St. Cloud Times story on the St. Cloud State survey.

The St. Cloud Times says Klobuchar she's campaigning in St. Cloud. The Strib says she'll also make a few stops in Maplewood and Roseville. The other candidate schedules are included in that story.

The AP has a story on Klobuchar's record as Hennepin County Attorney.

The New York Times has a story on the Obama visit to Rochester.

The AP also compares the records of Klobuchar and Republican Mark Kennedy.

The Star Tribune says Kennedy believes there must be a strong commitment to Iraq.

Governor

The latest MPR/Pi Press poll has Hatch up but within the margin of error. MPR and the Pi Press have stories.

Bill Salisbury with the Pi Press has a profile of Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty.

The AP says millions of dollars are being spent on the governor's race from outside groups.

The Strib has a sotry on the dueling ads.

WCCO's Pat Kessler has a reality check on the immigration ads.

This story takes a look at how Pawlenty is one of a handful of candidates who are tapping into beer ads.

The governor also named some citizens to the conservation legacy council.

Norm campaigned for Pawlenty in Marshall.

1st

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry canceled his trip to Mankato. The Star Tribune, the Mankato Free Press and the Rochester Post Bulletin have stories.

The Mankato Free Press and the Worthington Daily Globe endorse DFLer Tim Walz.

MSNBC looks at the 1st in a story that says Minnesota could turn this election on its head.

The Washington Post's "The Fix" mentions the 1st on the expanding House field.

3rd

The Star Tribune writes on a debate.

5th

The Star Tribune says the I-P's Tammy Lee was endorsed by a bipartisan group.

6th

The latest Reuters/Zogby poll has Bachmann up ten points over DFLer Patty Wetterling. Here's a Washington Post story.

KSTP does a truth check on an ad critical of GOP candidate Michele Bachmann. Wetterling truth check
http://kstp.dayport.com/viewer/viewerpage.php?Art_ID=169937

7th
The Bemidji Pioneer profiles the race.
Congressman Petereson talks ag and renewable energy in Worthington.

8th
The Bemidji Pioneer profiles Rod Grams.

Attorney General.
The Mesabi Daily News says GOP candidate Jeff Johnson thinks the ag's office is too politicized.

The MN Daily endorses Democrat Lori Swanson.

The Legislature

The West Central Tribune writes about the interesting twists and turns in DFL Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson's race.

The Winona Daily News has a story on fundraising in Senate District 31.

The Bemidji Pioneer has a story on voice mails in House District 2B.

The St. Cloud Times has a story on House District 14A and another story on 14B.

House Democrats unveil their health care plans

Ramsey County Sheriff

City Hall Scoop says Finney has hit the tv airwaves. I also saw a Finney ad in the movie theaters before our movie. I thought to myself "I guess I'm never going to get away from politics at this time of year." You want to know what movie? The Prestige. It was really good.

Finally the Star Tribune writes about campaign cash.

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6th District debate tonight

Posted at 12:02 PM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins

Tonight from 7p-8p, MPR will air -- on the radio and online -- a 6th District Congressional debate between Michele Bachmann, Patty Wetterling and John Binkowski. It will be moderated by Kerri Miller, broadcast from Andover High School.

They're everywhere!

Posted at 2:49 PM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (5 Comments)

One of my favorite MPR people -- Euan Kerr -- stopped by the cubicle this afternoon with an illuminating story. Euan is into everythign and seems to be in a hundred different places at once. Last night he was at the Bare Bones Halloween Extravaganza (above) in Minneapolis. Everyone is wearing masks and such. Euan says that as he was walking along he heard, "I'm Ken Pentel, I'm running for governor...I'm on the ballot." We could not ascertain whether he was costumed or not, but you have to admire the guy's pluckiness in the face of certain defeat on Tuesday.

There's more to the story, however. Euan is a host family for the World Press Institute, which occasionally brings groups of foreign journalists through the Twin Cities -- and elsewhere -- where they get to see how "our" brand of journalism is done. His family is presently hosting a journalist from Australia who remarked, "Your candidates here...... they're EVERYWHERE!"

Yes.

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6th District debate

Posted at 9:33 PM on November 1, 2006 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

Here's the audio. Yep, it's RealPlayer format.

Story is in the Campaign 2006 section.

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