Barone: 6th leans Bachmann

Posted at 12:53 PM on October 25, 2006 by Bob Collins (5 Comments)

Via KvM, I'm alerted to the fact that Michael Barone has made his predictions in U.S. House races.

Using the 50 House races in play on Real Clear Politics, he sees the 6th leaning Bachmann. He also sees the 1st leaning Gutknecht.

One reason I do not see this election as a "wave" is that I think Republicans have a superior turnout program. The samples in most recent polls show a Democratic advantage in party identification—quite different from the 2004 exit poll that showed party identification at 37 percent Republican and 37 percent Democratic. I think there probably has been some shift in party ID since November 2004, but I doubt that it's as great as those polls suggest. In any case, polls are not good at predicting turnout. Some but not all polls show Democrats to be more "interested" or "certain to vote" or "motivated." But responses to those questions have not done a good job at projecting turnout in the past, including November 2004. To get a really good idea of turnout, I think we have to wait for elections—or, rather, for the vote to be counted.

He also figures we won't know who controls the House on election night, a disturbing thought to us all-night types who are loathe to add an all-day to the mix.

Comments (5)

Check this out:

http://tinyurl.com/ybfqud

...."Olson, who in 14 years of legislative service has cast more than his share of truly confusing votes and taken some bizarre stands on issue. Tops on the list: He opposes Northstar but supports personal rapid transit, a yet-unproven transit system involving individual cars on yet-to-be-built tracks.

Transit issues aside, whether it's arrogance or incumbency or both, any time a politician adopts the attitude of being unwilling to share views with constituents, it's time for a change."

Other candidates who promote PRT:

Bachmann, Stenglein, Fine, Vandeveer and Cavlan.

Shouldn’t MPR explain what PRT is to the voters?...
http://dumpmarkolson.blogspot.com/

Posted by Avidor | October 25, 2006 1:14 PM

So a right wing pundit says he doesn't see DFLers getting rid of Gutknecht and sending Bachmann back to private life? Who cares? Michael Barone is the little boy whistling in the dark to keep his spirits up. Like all right wingers, he's scared. ... Haven't you noticed that every Republican controversy has been shown to be the downfall of the Democrat Party by all Fox News commentators? ... The Republican Party is in serious trouble both nationally and in MN. Michael Barone's commentary from afar won't protect the neo-cons like Michelle Bachmann or the Congressmen that go along with them like Gil Gutknecht. Their in trouble and next time you ought to consider a more believable and respectable source, Bob.

The Big E
http://www.mnblue.com

Posted by The Big E | October 25, 2006 1:38 PM

I take it you're not a fan of the Almanac of American Politics?

BTW, Barone predicts a Democratic House.

Posted by bob Collins | October 25, 2006 1:46 PM

I don't think the Big E reads much. Barone's Almanac is a work of art.

I remember on Election Day 2004 hearing Barone on FOX News talking about precincts in Anoka County.

Posted by Jeff | October 25, 2006 1:53 PM

Barone is reasonably fair, though he leans right; the fact that he's picking the Dems 218-217 should be a dagger through the heart for the GOP.

Nevertheless, I tend to think that number is flawed. Either the GOP is going to have good turnout nationwide and be competitive--and thus hold the house--or they're going to be down enough that more than 15 seats will flip. The 218-217 House is sort of like the nightmare 269-269 Electoral College--yeah, it could happen, but let's face it, it's not particularly likely.

Posted by Jeff Fecke | October 25, 2006 2:44 PM

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