Anyone but Ellison?

Posted at 6:13 PM on October 24, 2006 by Bob Collins (7 Comments)

What's this? A blog post that doesn't uncover some dark secret that still could make a difference?

If anyone would pull it off, it would be Gary Miller at Kennedy vs. the Machine. In case you don't follow KvM regularly, when they endorse someone over a Republican candidate, you just have to sit up and take notice.

'cuz they did.

The post basically says Alan Fine is not going to win so why not vote for Tammy Lee, since it's a better choice (still paraphrasing here) than Keith Ellison and she could actually win.

It's an utterly fascinating proposition , one that appears to have split the KvM writers, in fact.

But if one presumes that the Republican cannot win in that district -- and I'm not saying I believe that, but let's admit there's one or two folks out there who do -- it creates quite a dilemma for Republicans in the district ... philosophy meets practicality, if you will.

But that would require Republicans to get into bed with independents, who appear more aligned with Democrats than Republicans. Just noodling on the suggestion in my head here....

"Well... yeah.... of course you'd have to get in bed with someone who's definitely not a conservative. It's the 5th District," the conversation with myself would go.

"But I'm a Republican," I would say.

"A Republican with a chance to keep Keith Ellison out of Congress," I'd answer.

"Do I turn my back on my party in the interest of keeping Keith Ellison out of Congress," I ask myself.

"Do I feel lucky? Well....do I.....punk?"

This notion bears watching.

Update 10:16 - Doug Williams, who occasionally writes for KvM, but is much more entertaining at Bogus Gold (the return of which is the story of the election season, don't you think?) has drawn a line in the sand on this notion.

Proposed coalition slogan: "Vote for Alan Fine or you're a freakin' sissy."

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Comments (7)

The under looked aspect of the race in the 5th from the Republican perspective. If Tammy Lee wins how does the 2008 race shape up? Having the courage to leave the DFL for an independent may produce the courage within the district to support a moderate Republican in the future.

I see three scenarios, one Tammy Lee keeps the seat as long as she wants it, two the DFL takes it back easily in 08, or three we see a series of competitive three way races at least until Lee loses the seat with the GOP having a real shot. The argument is already being made that a Tammy Lee Ellison split vote gives the GOP their best hope in decades. If Lee wins the scenario presents itself again in two years, but they will be able to line up their best candidate rather then a throwaway candidate like Alan Fine. The ultimate key to a Republican break through is not a weak DFL candidate like Ellison, it's a strong Independent candidate like Lee. With Ellison the Republicans still have to get over 50% in a two way race and it's only tougher in a three way race, with Lee along with a Green it may only take 34 or 35% to win the seat and with the right candidate that might be possible.

Posted by Mike Grimes | October 24, 2006 9:10 PM

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The Star Tribune Endorsed Ellison:

http://www.startribune.com/561/story/764051.html

Posted by EB | October 24, 2006 10:46 PM

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Bob, Bob, Bob,

You sure fascinate easy.

What if the Libertarians threw in with Wendy Wilde? Think of how many flying monkeys we'd be dodging then.

Posted by charlieq | October 24, 2006 11:01 PM

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If only I could find a DFLer who's going to vote for Alan Fine, well, I will have had a very exciting day.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 24, 2006 11:03 PM

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Would this be that famous anti-Ellison suburban vote that came through on September 12?

Just to run the numbers here, Ellison took 50.6% in Minneapolis, and only 20.7% in the combined suburban vote. Minneapolis provided 68% of the total votes. Looking back at past general elections, Minneapolis usually provides about 60% of the 5th District's votes. Adjusting for these new figures, and assuming that Ellison picks up absolutely no new supporters in November, we're talking 38.7% of the total vote going to Ellison.

The Republican vote in the 5th District usually ranges from 20%-25%.

Then there's the hard-core Greenies, who are about 7% of the vote.

That makes a pretty tight race for Lee as it is. Given that it's a liberal DFL district and Ellison is almost certain to increase his percentages by at least some amount, and given that Tammy Lee has about zero name recognition and is competing with two others for the noisy "anti-Ellison" voters, well...

I mean, honestly, what more do the anti-Ellison people have to say at this point? They're reminding me of the Bush people in '92, and the way they kept harping on Clinton's draft record. Most voters had been exposed to those revelations in February, had factored them into their assessments of the man already, and either it made a difference or it didn't. Just repeating the same old stuff over and over again didn't move any new voters into their column.

Posted by Chris | October 25, 2006 12:12 AM

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Be careful about projecting a primary vote to a general election.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 25, 2006 8:40 AM

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Here are some good links to read about CAIR, the "moderate" group that supports terrorism that is running ads in this market to help out their good buddy, 5th District Congressional candidate Keith Ellison:
http://www.americansagainsthate.org/

http://www.anti-cair-net.org/

and, lastly, a lovely quote from CAIR's Nihad Awad, a good friend of Keith Ellison's:
"I am in support of the Hamas movement"

and, as a reminder, here's a little primer on Hamas, in case you forgot:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas

Vote Tammy Lee! Vote Alan Fine! Hell, vote Jay Pond! But for crying out loud, think twice before you vote for Keith Ellison.

Posted by Dizzy | October 25, 2006 8:55 AM

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